Bracket making season is finally upon us. If you know me personally, then you know this is one of my favorite times of the year. The 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 shot at winning 1 billion of Warren Buffet's dollars is enough to get me to get to make a bunch of fake email accounts and churn out hundreds of brackets. Well, at least it was about two years ago when I made 250 brackets and didn't even sniff a perfect first round. I also didn't get close to that trip to Hawaii or a car from ESPN. Now that I know more about basic probability, I'm not going to waste my time making that many brackets. Instead, I am going to waste my time writing about one bracket that I put a ton of thought into, and I am about 0.000000000000000010842022% sure this is going to be the first ever perfect bracket.
In basketball, just like in any sport, there is a high element of randomness. This is how we see so many upsets. I mentioned in a recent article that even 82 games in a full NBA regular season is not a sufficient enough sample to define who the better teams are, so a 1 game sample definitely doesn't do the trick. But this is why we love March. There is an enormous element of randomness, which leads to a high rate of variability in the outcomes. If a team has a 90% chance of winning every game, they will still only have about a 53% chance of winning the whole tournament. This is what makes everyone wrong. These brackets are not going to be perfect, but they are going to be unapologetically wrong. We have watched College Basketball all season, formed our own opinions, and are going to present what we think will happen in these games.
When predicting the outcomes of these games, there are a few things that I look at:
1. Coaching: This is an incredibly important factor in any basketball, but especially in college. Whether or not the rotation has been optimized, the schemes have been sorted out, the set plays have been ingrained in players memory, or if the guys have bought in is huge when you get to this point. It's also huge that you have a coach that is good at making in game adjustments. Stuff is going to go wrong at some point for every team in this tournament, but the best coaches find a way around this. Also, if you look at any lower ranked seed that went on a run in the past decade, they all had awesome coaches.
2. Scheme matchups: Some teams just match up well with teams they are worse than. Just the match up of scheme is another underrated factor that can lead to teams going on runs or major upsets. 5-out teams will give problems to pack line defenses. High pressure defenses will bother teams without good guard play. Guards that can shoot off the dribble will always cook drop coverages, just as slow footed bigs will always get cooked in contain against quick guards.
3. Player matchups: How do the players match up with each other? If a team plays all 6'6" players, they might have problems against a team that plays through a big center. Some teams just have no good point of attack defenders and get killed by guards that can dribble and score. And sometimes, player X on this team is just way better than anyone on the other team.
4. Numbers: While I may not have access to the same analytics I use to help me evaluate NBA teams and players, there is still plenty of solid numbers out there. There are a ton of ratings systems out there that rank teams scientifically based on their own unique algorithms such as KenPom, Sagarin, NET, KPI, RPI, SOR, etc. KenPom is also a good place to look to see adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. Hoop Math and ShotQuality are really good sources for looking at teams shot profiles on offense and defense. Of course, Sports Reference is a great source for finding basic stats that can help your evaluation of certain teams.
5. Eye-test: The most important thing to do is to take everything you have watched, consider of the factors above, and form your own opinion on what is going to happen. It is impossible for anyone to definitively tell you what is going to happen in any given game because there is so much variance involved, so just don't worry about what other people think. If you've watched the games, trust your own evaluation.
Things not to be tricked by:
1. Seeding or the AP Poll: The AP Poll is an inconsistent ranking that is only designed to be a snapshot in time. Don't let what it says fool you into thinking that it is a sufficient ordering of who the best teams are. The seeding is also just based on what you have done this season overall. It is also not a sufficient ranking of how good teams are right now, and it also doesn't tell us anything about the actual matchup.
2. What other people think: Don't be that guy who Google's other people’s opinions and presents them as their own. If you have watched the games, read articles, and listen to what other people are saying to help guide you to your own conclusions, don't let what other people think change what you think. Like I said before, no one really knows anything, so just trust yourself. Also, if you haven't watched the games, then don't even bother arguing with the people that have.
3. Process vs. Result: Don't make grandiose conclusions based on what happened in one game. Don't just say "well in the regular season, team X beat team Y, so team X is better." Think about why a team might've won the particular matchup. Maybe one team just happened to shoot the ball really well or poorly in that particular game. Maybe it's something bigger than that. Maybe there one teams scheme allowed them to win. Maybe there is a player that the other team can't figure out how to guard. Also, the transitive property does not apply at all in the sport of basketball. Don't even think about using it as a way to justify what you think.
For each game, I'm going to include my score prediction metric just as a proxy for what the expected score could be and how even the two teams are on paper. Since this is still an NBA website, I am going to note the NBA prospects in each game and where they rank on my current big board in parenthesis for first round games. I have also made a ranking of how likely I think each team is to win a championship with my own personal notes to help people make more informed picks.
Also, since differing opinions and multiple perspectives are such a beautiful thing, I've enlisted the help of my good friend and college basketball enthusiast Yasser Mohran to include his own picks and perspective in this article. While I am completely out there and hyper-focused on schemes and X's and O's, Yasser is more down to Earth and focused on the big picture. I think it is a great contrast to have and it definitely makes this article a lot better.
My Big Board and notes can be found below:
To compete against out brackets, click the link below:
First Four
11. Wichita State vs. 11. Drake
Score Prediction and Win %: Wichita State 68.9 (38.9%), Drake 72.0 (61.1%)
NBA prospects: Tyson Etienne (96)
Bryce: I love Drake, but Drake isn't fully healthy. Hemphill hasn't played in forever, and I'm not expecting him to just walk into the tourney at 100%. We already know that Penn isn't going to play, who is their primary ball handler. I think the guards of Wichita State are going to have their way in this match up. Give me the Shockers.
Yasser: Drake is dealing just dealing with a lot of injuries right now. Their best player hasn't played in a while and their third best player is going to be out for the tournament. Wichita State has good wins and won the American, so I'm going with them.
11. Michigan State vs. 11. UCLA
Score Prediction and Win %: Michigan State 64.8 (43.3%), UCLA 66.5 (56.7%)
NBA prospects: Aaron Henry (18), Chris Smith (WL1), Jaime Jacquez Jr. (WL2), Joey Hauser (WL3)
Bryce: If UCLA had Chris Smith, they wouldn't be playing a first four game. But they don't have him around, so I'm going with the Spartans. They still have a lot of talented players, but I think the perimeter defense of Henry, Langford, and Hoggard are going to really disrupt what Tyger Campbell wants to do offensively. I'm definitely concerned about if Michigan State can put up enough points to win a basketball game, but if Aaron Henry continues to play the way he did down the stretch of the season I think he is too physically imposing for Jacquez.
Yasser: Michigan State has a lot of impressive wins from the Big 10 such as Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois. On the other hand, UCLA doesn't really have any impressive wins on their resume. I'll take Michigan State to move on.
16. Norfolk State vs. 16. Appalachian State
Score Prediction and Win %: Norfolk State 64.8 (39.0%), Appalachian State 67.6 (61.0%)
NBA prospects: None
Bryce: Yeah, this game is not going to be fun to watch. I'm going to reluctantly pick Norfolk State, even though they are a very streaky team. I think they have enough shot creators to win in this low-seeded matchup.
Yasser: DeVante Carter is going to handle business in this one against a weak Appalachian State team. I like the Norfolk State Spartans in this one.
16. Mount Saint Mary's vs. 16. Texas Southern
Score Prediction and Win %: Mount Saint Mary's 62.0 (49.7%), Texas Southern 62.1 (50.3%)
NBA prospects: None
Bryce: Even though Mount Saint Mary's best players name is Damian Chong-Qui, I'm going with Texas Southern. They actually have some guys on their team who have played at a high-major level, they can get to the rim and finish, but these dudes can't shoot the ball. The Mount does not do a good job of keeping guys from the lane, so I think the poor shooting won't hurt Texas Southern too much.
Yasser: Texas Southern has some players on their team that have played in big games, and I have no faith in the front line of Mount Saint Mary's to defend. Texas Southern will advance.
West
Round of 64
1. Gonzaga vs. 16. Norfolk State
Score Prediction and Win %: Gonzaga: 93.5 (98.6%), Norfolk St. 61.7 (1.4%)
NBA prospects: Jalen Suggs (3), Corey Kispert (10), Joel Ayayi (35), Drew Timme (WL1)
Bryce: I picked Norfolk State in the first four, and I don't expect this one to be close. Gonzaga is going to easily win this one, as they probably have about 7 guys better than Norfolk State's best player (DeVante Carter).
Yasser: Gonzaga should be able to keep their undefeated record through this 1-16 matchup.
8. Oklahoma vs. 9. Missouri
Score Prediction and Win %: Oklahoma 70.8 (57.7%), Missouri 68.7 (42.3%)
NBA prospects: Austin Reaves (62), Xavier Pinson (WL2)
Bryce: This is honestly an incredible game for a first rounder. These two teams have struggled down the stretch, but they are both really talented. It will be really interesting to watch the differences in style and how it plays out. Oklahoma shifted mid-season to a 5 out with 4 guards and Manek spacing the floor, while Missouri has been playing through Jeremiah Tilmon in the middle. I think Tilmon is going to be a matchup nightmare for Manek, but I don't think he is a good enough passer to handle doubles or digs. On the other hand, I think Tilmon is going to get cooked in the pick and roll or pick and pop between Reaves and Manek. Give me the Sooners.
Update: De'Vion Harmon is not going to play for the Sooners in the first round. This is huge. Harmon is a big part of what the Sooners do offensively, and he is one of the guys that really helps them go five out. I would expect Kuath or Hill to get more minutes now, and both of those guys are players you can hide Jeremiah Tilmon on. I think Missouri is going to win because of Harmon being out.
Yasser: Oklahoma has impressive wins under their belt, and Missouri seems to have dropped the ball near the end of the season against opponents that are good, but not great like the Big 12 teams Oklahoma lost to. I think Oklahoma will hold on.
Update: These teams are pretty even in my opinion, but without De’vion Harmon, Oklahoma’s chances are reduced. I think Missouri will win this one.
5. Creighton vs. 12. UC Santa Barbara
Score Prediction and Win %: Creighton 72.8 (75.4%), UC Santa Barbara 65.2 (24.6%)
NBA prospects: Marcus Zegarowski (78), Mitch Ballock (94)
Bryce: This is a really tough game to pick. I think Creighton is a great team, but they haven't been the same sine the McDermott plantation remarks. UCSB is a really strong mid-major who rolled through the Big West with a lot of talent with McLaughlin, Sow, and Norris. They are going to have significantly more size than Creighton. UCSB plays a really strong pack line, they protect the rim, and they guard the line. Also, their nickname is the Guachos. I won't pick them because I think Zegarowski, Mahoney, and Ballock is one of the 5 best back courts in the country and Creighton is just too well coached. I would pick the Guachos against almost any other 5.
Yasser: Creighton has had a very solid season, and I think they have what it takes to defeat their 12-seed UCSB.
4. Virginia vs. 13. Ohio
Score Prediction and Win %: Virginia 70.3 (85.9%), Ohio 58.9 (14.1%)
NBA prospects: Trey Murphy III (41), Jason Preston (60), Jay Huff (71), Sam Hauser (89)
Bryce: Do I love the idea of Jason Preston relentlessly running spread pick and roll against Jay Huff? Of course I do. But do I think Ohio stands any chance at guarding the UVA 5 out motion offense? Absolutely not. Preston is an absolute stud, but your team has to play on both ends of the floor to win in March. Tony Bennett is not going to see a first round upset this year.
Yasser: In my opinion, this is the most likely 13-4 upset in this tournament. Ohio’s star guard Jason Preston has been putting up incredible numbers, leading Ohio to win 10 of their last 11. Ohio is a very solid team, but so is Virginia. Ohio may struggle to score in the paint against Virginia’s pack-line defense which is not used by any of the MAC teams that Ohio has faced during the season. This would force them to shoot more threes, which leaves them relying on having a good shooting day. However, Virginia is suffering from COVID-19 issues and cannot practice prior to this matchup, so they will have a major disadvantage. I really do see this game going either way, and although Virginia’s performance has dropped off during the back half of the season, I still think they can hold on against Ohio. I do however, see a Virginia loss in the second round.
6. USC vs. 11. Wichita State
Score Prediction and Win %: USC: 72.4 (78.3%), Wichita St. 63.9 (21.7%)
NBA prospects: Evan Mobley (8), Tyson Etienne (96)
Bryce: I picked Wichita State in the first four game, but the unleashing of Evan Mobley all over this front court will be fun. I don't see how the Shockers are going to defend Evan or his brother, and the Spartans just have way too much size for Wichita State. Isaac Brown has an incredible season, but if he coaches the Shockers past here, I would be shocked.
Yasser: Although Wichita State won the AAC regular season, I think Evan Mobley and the Trojans can hold on against either of them.
3. Kansas vs. 14. Eastern Washington
Score Prediction and Win %: Kansas 81.6 (82.8%), Eastern Washington 70.0 (17.2%)
NBA prospects: Ochai Agbaji (32), Marcus Garrett (50), Jalen Wilson (WL1)
Bryce: I actually think Eastern Washington is about as solid as a 14 seed can be, but I don't know if their guys are ready to score against this Kansas defense. I know Jalen Wilson isn't going to play in this one, but the Eagles aren't really a defensive team.
Yasser: Even though Kansas is going to be missing some of their players, they are a strong Big-12 team that was playing well towards the end of the season. I don't think they will get tripped up here against Eastern Washington.
7. Oregon vs. 10. VCU
Score Prediction and Win %: Oregon 69.7 (55.2%), VCU 68.3 (44.8%)
NBA prospects: Chris Duarte (21), Nah'Shon Hyland (43), Will Richardson (WL2)
Bryce: I do not think the havoc defense will affect Chris Duarte and the Ducks. Oregon is a super talented team, and they have a lot of guys that can handle the ball. VCU has an awesome defense, but I think Oregon has an even more awesome offense. I also don't trust the other players on VCU not names Bones Hyland to score the basketball in a high-level matchup.
Yasser: VCU likes to utilize the full court press and play tough defense, but Oregon themselves put up good numbers in steals and blocks. I get the feeling that this game will not be a very high-scoring one, but Oregon can hold win (albeit a close game).
2. Iowa vs. 15. Grand Canyon
Score Prediction and Win %: Iowa 80.5 (88.1%), Grand Canyon 66.2 (11.9%)
NBA prospects: Joe Wieskamp (45), Luka Garza (54)
Bryce: Grand Canyon actually has some size, and they win games with a throwback style. The problem is they don't have Luka Garza size, and I don't think anyone on Grand Canyon can handle him 1 on 1 in the post. Iowa is going to force the rest of Grand Canyon into constant full rotations, which will only spell trouble for them. No major upset to be seen here.
Yasser: Being a student at a Big-10 school, I’ve kept up with most of the Big-10 teams throughout the season. Iowa’s offense is incredible and represents some of the most prolific and successful 3-point shooting in the entire nation. I find it very hard for them to lose this 2-15 matchup.
Round of 32
Bryce: 1. Gonzaga vs. 9. Missouri
Score Prediction and Win %: Gonzaga: 86.8 (86.0%), Missouri 72.8 (14.0%)
Bryce: I think Oklahoma is really good basketball team. I think forcing Drew Timme to defend in space against Manek will be a challenge for him. The problem for the Sooners is that everything else will favor the Zags. I think Ayayi will be able to handle Austin Reaves well. I also think Manek has no shot at guarding Timme in the post or Suggs on the perimeter in pick and roll coverage. If they try to bring extra help, Suggs is just too good at finding weakside shooters for open looks. And if your defense is forced into rotation, Kispert is going to somehow find an open shot. Gonzaga's offense is too good for Oklahoma to handle.
Update: I picked Missouri to advance with the Harmon news, but I wanted to leave what I said about them in here. Thinking about the Missouri matchup, I think Oklahoma matches up better. If there's one criticism of Drew Timme, it's that he can get pushed around a little in the post. Gonzaga has smart players that can provide timely digs, but I think Tilmon will have a good game. I just don't know about everyone else. I also think Pinson's size will get exposed a little on defense, so I'm still going with the Zags to advance.
Yasser: Although I feel that Gonzaga may be a bit overrated in general, I do not think that the Oklahoma Sooners can be the ones to defeat the Zags.
Update: I still feel that Gonzaga may be a bit overrated, but I don't think Missouri will upset them in this game.
5. Creighton vs. 4. Virginia
Score Prediction and Win %: Creighton: 61.7 (39.3%), Virginia 64.4 (60.7%)
Bryce: Zegarowski vs. Clark will be a matchup to watch. But making Jay Huff defend in space is going to be something the Blue Jays will do. They run a ton of interesting actions with on ball screens, and I think Bishop is going to be a problem as a roller in this game. Bishop also has the athleticism at the center position to match up with the Virginia 5-out. They have enough shooting to really hurt the pack line if Virginia becomes too aggressive with Mahoney and especially Ballock. I like the matchup for Creighton on both sides of the ball, this Virginia team just doesn't have the level of talent it did two years ago.
Yasser: I’ve always had the impression that Virginia are choke artists. I have wanted to have them eliminated since the first round. I think this is the matchup that can send them home.
6. USC vs. 3. Kansas
Score Prediction and Win %: USC: 68.4 (57.2%), Kansas 66.5 (42.8%)
Bryce: Kansas has improved throughout the season because David McCormack has been playing really well. But he is coming back and matching up with one of the best centers in the country in Evan Mobley. I think this game is going to be a defensive brawl. The level of defense on both sides here is awesome. Kansas has such great personnel on defense, but Mobley is an absolute game breaker. He can handle the ball from the top, and I think that is going to be enough to get the Jayhawks defense out of what they like to do. I am also going to lean USC in this one because of the uncertainty around Jalen Wilson's availability. If he can't play, I don't see how this team wins. If he does, then it gets awfully interesting.
Yasser: Kansas leaving behind 3 of their best players due to COVID-19 issues means that they are incomplete and will have to face a very solid USC team and Evan Mobley. I think USC can pull the upset against this incomplete Kansas team.
7. Oregon vs. 2. Iowa
Bryce: Score Prediction and Win %: Oregon: 75.4 (29.6%), Iowa 82.1 (70.4%)
It's so much fun yet so difficult to pick games where the teams have conflicting styles. Oregon plays 4 guards around a skilled, athletic, undersized big in Omoruyi. They have guards that can create, shoot, or run handle the ball in the pick and roll. On the other hand, Iowa has a classic dominant big in Garza and they have surrounded him with shooting. I really want to pick Oregon here. I think they are incredibly talented and terribly under seeded. I think Duarte is one of the better players in the country. I think Omoruyi can absolutely expose Garza on the perimeter. Screw it. I talked myself into Oregon while writing this. If Oregon goes to that 2-3 zone they like and really collapse on Garza and rotate really well, I think they will win. Go Ducks!
Yasser: I am a fan of Iowa because of their offensive power. Their 3-point shooting combined with Luka Garza’s dominance makes them one of the more dangerous 2-seeds. I think Oregon won’t have anyone who can truly guard Garza, who is the premier national player of the year candidate.
Sweet 16
1. Gonzaga vs. 5. Creighton
Score Prediction and Win %: Gonzaga: 86.3 (80.4%), Creighton 75.2 (19.6%)
Bryce: I like Creighton. I think they're super talented. I just don't see how they can defend Gonzaga. They have two guys that opposing teams can attack in Marcus Zegarowski and Mitch Ballock. That may fly against UVA and UCSB, but the Zags are really going to exploit those weaknesses. I also think you are going to need more of a presence around the rim to beat Gonzaga. They relentlessly attack the rim, and they have a really strong post player. I said that Bishop will be the reason Creighton makes it this far, but I don't think he is enough of a rim protector to hold up in this matchup. I think Creighton is going to put up points with their guards and creative offensive sets, but they just won't be able to defend.
Yasser: Creighton is a solid team but lacks consistency like many others. Gonzaga is a team that has consistently beaten opponents and have shown that they can return from halftime deficits (particularly against a good BYU team in the WCC championship game). Gonzaga is insured from all angles in this matchup and I don’t see a strong enough opponent to topple them until at least the elite 8. Gonzaga will proceed.
Bryce: 6. USC vs. 7. Oregon
Score Prediction and Win %: USC: 70.0 (63.9%), Oregon 66.2 (36.1%)
This would be a fun Pac-12 matchup in the Sweet Sixteen. In the last round I thought Oregon could expose the Iowa defense to get here, but this USC defense is on a completely different level. I think Evan Mobley is going to be able to wipe Omoruyi right off the face of the planet. I also think USC has some other solid defensive players with some size to handle the other guys. I think this is where Oregon lacking a primary ball handler is really going to show. On the other side of the ball, I do think Oregon can have some success if they go to their 2-3 zone. If they go man, I think Mobley is just going to destroy Omoruyi. USC's ability to shoot the ball does worry me if they play against a zone defense, but I think they have enough play makers to score enough against it. I have the Trojans moving on to the Elite Eight.
Yasser: 6. USC vs. 2. Iowa
Score Prediction and Win %: USC: 74.4 (41.0%), Iowa 77.1 (59.0%)
I think Evan Mobley’s dominance can be matched, if not exceeded, by that of Iowa’s Luka Garza. Other than that, Iowa leads an extremely potent offense that will be tough to stop by the team surrounding Mobley. Iowa will proceed to the elite 8.
Elite 8
Bryce: 1. Gonzaga vs. 6. USC
Score Prediction and Win %: Gonzaga: 80.8 (77.6%), USC 71.6 (22.4%)
It would be a massive success for USC to make it this far. USC is good at protecting the rim with Evan Mobley, and I think that is going to be why they could potentially compete in this game. However, Mark Few is a really good coach. Gonzaga is capable of running plenty of delay actions with Drew Timme handling the ball out on the top of the key. Also, one of the best ways to beat a shot blocker is to beat him down the floor in transition, and Gonzaga does that better than almost every other team in the country. I also think the USC lack of shooting will finally get exposed in this one. Gonzaga has handled really good big men in the past by digging down and making quick rotations. If you don't have elite level shooting around your big, I don't think you will be able to hurt this defense enough. I'm picking the Zags to remain undefeated and move on to the Final Four.
Yasser: 1. Gonzaga vs. 2. Iowa
Score Prediction and Win %: Gonzaga: 91.2 (68.4%), Iowa 84.5 (31.6%)
Gonzaga and Iowa are both very dangerous offensive teams but may lack on defense. I like Luka Garza in the matchup versus Timme. Surrounding those star big men, Jalen Suggs and Corey Kispert combined with Joel Ayayi might have a slight advantage against Iowa’s Bohannon, Weiskamp, and Murray in terms of interior finishing. Jalen Suggs is an NBA prospect and I think his superior interior finishing can lead Gonzaga to a narrow victory against the Hawkeyes.
East
Round of 64
1. Michigan vs. 16. Texas Southern
Score Prediction and Win %: Michigan: 82.1 (97.2%), Texas Southern 58.1 (2.8%)
NBA prospects: Franz Wagner (27), Isaiah Livers (44), Hunter Dickinson (70)
Bryce: Michigan against Texas Southern will be a mismatch. Texas Southern does a decent job of protecting the rim, but they have not protected the rim against Hunter Dickinson. I also just don't think their guys outside of Webster are going to be able to generate offense against this Michigan defense.
Yasser: Despite losing two starters and finishing the season on a relatively weak note compared to what we thought Michigan could be, I still think Michigan will win this game.
8. LSU vs. 9. Saint Bonaventure
Score Prediction and Win %: LSU 75.0 (55.8%), Saint Bonaventure 73.4 (44.2%)
NBA prospects: Cameron Thomas (28), Trendon Watford (46), Darius Days (WL3)
Bryce: The Bonnies are in the tourney, but I don't think it will be for long. LSU is grossly under seeded here. I don't know if Osunniyi will be able to guard out in space against the likes of Darius Days and Trendon Watford, and I think that is going to really mess with the Bonnies defensive scheme. I think those two guys will be the difference in this game, not Smart and Thomas.
Yasser: St. Bonaventure is a very solid team, having won both the A10 regular season and tournament. However, LSU has been phenomenal as of late, making it to the SEC championship game and losing by 1 point against an incredible Alabama team. I think LSU will win this matchup although I think it will be a close game.
5. Colorado vs. 12. Georgetown
Score Prediction and Win %: Colorado 75 (83.8%), Georgetown 63.8 (16.2%)
NBA prospects: McKinley Wright IV (99), Jabari Walker (WL3)
Bryce: Ewing and Georgetown have had a great run to get here, but I'm still not convinced this Georgetown team is actually that good. This Colorado defense has real athletes that can get out on the floor and defend, and I don't think Georgetown has offensive players or a scheme that is good enough to score at a high level.
Yasser: Georgetown has proved that they are very capable, making an unbelievable run to win the Big East tournament as an 8-seed. Colorado seems to be an inconsistent 3-point shooting squad but on the bright side they get more offensive rebounds than most opponents, which means they dominate in the paint. Despite that, I personally think that Colorado is overrated as a 5-seed and I think that Georgetown can make a run past Colorado.
4. Florida State vs. 13. UNC Greensboro
Score Prediction and Win %: 73.6 (83.6%), 62.8 (16.4%)
NBA prospects: Scottie Barnes (4), RaiQuan Gray (77), M.J. Walker (83), Isaiah Miller (98)
Bryce: This is going to be a great test for Isaiah Miller. He's super athletic with a shifty handle, but how will he fare against the length and athleticism of this Florida State team? I think he is more of a G-League guy, but maybe he will prove me wrong in this game. Anyways, I don't think anyone else on UNCG is that good, so I don't think they are going to upset the Seminoles.
Yasser: Florida state is a very skilled team but is inconsistent: they blew out a then-ranked #7 Virginia, then turned around and lost by 8 to an unranked North Carolina team. As the end of the season came closer, I found out that this North Carolina team is actually very solid, so I’ll cut Florida State some slack. I think they can win this one by a decent margin.
6. BYU vs. 11. Michigan St.
Score Prediction and Win %: BYU: 68.7 (60.3%), Michigan St. 66.0 (39.7%)
NBA prospects: Matt Haarms (100)
Bryce: I picked Michigan State, but I think they are really going to struggle to score here in this game. I actually think this is going to be a pretty ugly game, but BYU just has enough shooting to advance them here. Aaron Henry bulldozing his way to the rim is not going to work nearly as well against Matt Haarms, and the Spartans lack of shooting is finally going to get exposed here in this one.
Yasser: Michigan State during the earlier half of the season looked like a struggling team in an unusual season, but near the end of the season they went on an impressive run, getting extremely valuable wins over top opponents in Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois. I think Michigan will win the play-in game against UCLA and will be able to upset BYU. BYU has an amazing guard in Alex Barcelo, but I think the team lacks depth overall and this Michigan State team can win the matchup.
3. Texas vs. 14. Abilene Christian
Score Prediction and Win %: Texas 71.4 (80.3%), Abilene Christian 62.2 (19.7%)
NBA prospects: Kai Jones (23), Greg Brown III (47), Jericho Sims (90), Courtney Ramey (WL2)
Bryce: I actually think Abilene Christian is an interesting team, but Kolton Kohl is not going to stand a chance in pick and roll coverage against Texas. I think this is going to be a lob fest for the Longhorns.
Yasser: Texas is a very strong team, and I don’t see them losing this one.
7. UConn vs. 10. Maryland
Score Prediction and Win %: UConn 62.4 (50.0%), Maryland 62.4 (50.0%)
NBA prospects: James Bouknight (5), Aaron Wiggins (86), Donta Scott (WL1)
Bryce: This is a tough draw for UConn. Morsell is one of the best perimeter players in the country, and he is going to be hounding Bouknight all game long. They also have the guys to switch off the ball and kill the UConn offense. I think on the other side of the ball, Maryland runs enough 5 out sets that Whaley is not going to spend as much time around the rim as he would like. Maryland is just the perfect matchup against this really talented UConn team.
Yasser: I’ll admit that UConn is a solid team, but Maryland has been able to pull huge upsets within the strongest conference in the nation. I think they can do the same in this game. I have Maryland winning this game.
2. Alabama vs. 15. Iona
Score Prediction and Win %: Alabama 80.2 (96.0%), Iona 58.8 (4.0%)
NBA prospects: Herbert Jones (24), John Petty (58), Josh Primo (WL1)
Bryce: Pitino is a world class coach, but this Iona roster has no shot at handling the fun and gun of Alabama. Iona has a poor transition defense and that does not bode well if you want to win against Alabama. Their only hope is that they miss every shot.
Yasser: Alabama is a strong 2-seed and I think they will beat Iona.
Round of 32
1. Michigan vs. 8. LSU
Score Prediction and Win %: Michigan: 80.1 (71.9%), LSU 73.1 (28.1%)
Bryce: No Livers, no championship. Isaiah Livers is not walking through that door. That leaves Michigan without probably the second biggest cog in the machine. Eli Brooks is also coming off an injury. Without Livers, I don't think Michigan has the bodies to match up. He would've been perfect for defending Watford. The big four from LSU of Thomas, Smart, Watford, and Days is as good as a top 4 as anyone has in the country. It’s certainly better than Dickinson, Wagner, Smith, and Brooks. I also think Watford and Days can just kill Hunter Dickinson out on the perimeter. They play a lot of 5 out, which Michigan struggles with. If Michigan goes to the zone, I think LSU has enough playmakers and shooter to hurt them. Not only do I think the Tigers are this good, but I also think Livers is that important to what Michigan does.
Yasser: Although Michigan will be missing a key offensive puzzle piece in Isaiah Livers, I do not think LSU can be the ones to topple them although I predict a Michigan loss in the sweet 16. They will hold on for now.
Bryce: 5. Colorado vs. 4. Florida State
Score Prediction and Win %: Colorado: 72.1 (55.3%), Florida St. 70.6 (44.7%)
This is going to be a fun game. Just two athletic, switch heavy teams, battling it out for a spot in the Sweet Sixteen. I'm going to go with Florida State because I don't know how the Colorado scheme will work against this particular defense. They rely a lot on cuts and off ball screens to generate offense without much creation outside of Wright. Florida State is really good at defending these actions, and I think they can contain Wright. My question is just with how Florida State is going to get enough offense in this game, but I still think they will advance.
Yasser: 12. Georgetown vs. 4. Florida State
Score Prediction and Win %: Georgetown: 67.1 (19.2%), Florida St. 77.2 (80.8%)
Florida State is a great team, and I do not think Georgetown will have what it takes to defeat them despite their upset of Colorado in the first round.
Bryce: 6. BYU vs. 3. Texas
Score Prediction and Win %: BYU: 68.0 (41.2%), Texas 70.4 (58.8%)
Sorry Matt Haarms, you move your feet well for a 7-foot 3 guy, but you don't move your feet well enough to contain the pick and rolls Texas can throw at you. The thing that makes me nervous about picking against BYU is that any given night they can get hot and beat anyone. I am also a little bit worried about BYU exposing Texas being undisciplined defensively with ball movement and cuts. I just don't think they have good enough point of attack defenders to guard the three headed monster of Ramey, Jones, and Coleman.
Yasser: 11. Michigan State vs. 3. Texas
Score Prediction and Win %: Michigan St.: 66.2 (31.5%), Texas 71.4 (68.5%)
Michigan State has showed that they can keep up with the best of teams in the Big 10 but they lack consistency. Texas is of a different caliber; they are a very strong team who can hold their own against Baylor and other top-tier Big-12 teams. Due to Michigan State’s lack of consistency, I think Texas can hold on.
10. Maryland vs. 2. Alabama
Score Prediction and Win %: Maryland: 66.3 (28.3%), Alabama 72.5 (71.7%)
Bryce: This is actually a tough matchup for Bama... on one side of the floor. Maryland can really defend in space. It's what their weird roster is built for. I think in the half court, Maryland will give Alabama fits. They have the personnel to really hold their drive and kick game in check. My only concern there is sometimes they can be a little too eager to show weakside help, and that's where Bama does a great job of kicking the ball out and swinging for a good look. My major concern for Maryland is on the other side of the court. I don't think they have a good enough offense to score against Alabama. Them not scoring is going to lead to transition opportunities, where Bama is great. Alabama is just too good at switching to be really hurt by staggers and hand offs.
Yasser: Alabama’s run-and-gun fast-paced offense is totally different from what Maryland is used to playing against in the Big 10. Although I have Maryland upsetting UConn in the 1st round, Alabama is a completely different team who will be able to hold on.
Sweet 16
Bryce: 8. LSU vs. 4. Florida State
Score Prediction and Win %: LSU: 78.0 (41.5%), Florida St. 80.6 (58.5%)
I think Balsa Koprivica has absolutely no shot at staying on the floor in this game. Either Darius Days or Trendon Watford would absolutely kill him on the perimeter. However, one of the beautiful things about Florida State is that they are incredibly versatile. They can go to smaller lineups with RaiQuan Gray at the 5. I think that will be the way to go, and if Leonard Hamilton goes in that direction, I think FSU will win. The switch heavy defense is going to be tough for LSU to go against, as FSU has enough size and length to not get hurt on any switch against this iso-heavy team. As always, I am concerned about how Florida State is going to score the ball. They have a lot of guys that can score, but they don't have a lot of guys that will score (if that makes sense). The big 3 of Gray, Barnes, and Walker are really going to have to step up to advance. I don't know if it'll happen. I'm going to reluctantly take the Seminoles to advance.
Yasser: 1. Michigan vs. 4. Florida State
Score Prediction and Win %: Michigan: 73.8 (65.2%), Florida St. 69.4 (34.8%)
I think Michigan has finally met their match in this tournament. Michigan, without Isaiah Livers will have a tough time operating the same offensive potency they had enjoyed up till the Big 10 tournament. Scottie Barnes is an NBA prospect and has led the Seminoles to many impressive victories along the regular season, and an appearance in the ACC title matchup. I think Florida State can tackle the incomplete Michigan team although Hunter Dickinson will be tough to stop. Florida State advances.
3. Texas vs. 2. Alabama
Score Prediction and Win %: Texas: 71.9 (39.7%), Alabama 74.9 (60.3%)
Bryce: This might be my favorite matchup of the entire tournament. I could write about this possibility all day long. The fun and gun from Bama vs. the super athletic pick and roll heavy scheme from the Longhorns. Let's talk about Alabama on offense first. First and foremost, Alabama loves to run the floor. They can shoot in transition if they have the chance, but they may not have the greatest finishers around the rim. I think Texas has the athletes to get back on defense and slow them down. I think all of their rotational big men can survive in a cross match in transition or semi-transition. In the half court, Alabama is very drive and kick heavy. If you have any defenders that can't move their feet on the perimeter, you're done. Texas in the perfect matchup in this respect, as all of their players can really move their feet laterally. The biggest advantage that Alabama is going to have is when they force the defense into full rotation. I am not sure that the personnel of Texas are smart enough on defense to constantly handle full rotations. I think Alabama will get some open looks, but will the length and athleticism make those looks actually more contested? Now let's look at the other side of the ball. Texas runs tons of spread pick and roll. they have three really good guards that can all handle the ball and shoot. They have two really athletic big men that can jump out of the gym to catch lobs. Alabama mostly does a at the level and recover, but is the weakside corner help going to be big enough to handle lobs? Are they going to be early enough to prevent the lobs? Is Shaka Smart going to be smart enough to place shooters in the weakside corner? Also, is Alabama going to go with a smaller lineup and just switch all of these actions? This is such a tough game to pick because I don't know the answers to those questions. At the end of the day, my pick comes down to this: I think the shot creation from Texas is awesome and I think they match up well defensively. I'm taking the Longhorns to move on.
Yasser: Alabama features a very fast-paced shot-taking offense. If Alabama has a good shooting day, they can probably outscore Texas. Texas has great scorers too, but I think Alabama can outpace them and ultimately outscore them. The game will be close, but I think Alabama can hold on to make the elite 8.
Elite 8
Bryce: 4. Florida State vs. 3. Texas
Score Prediction and Win %: Florida St.: 72.6 (51.5%), Texas 72.2 (48.5%)
I think this is an interesting game because I like the way Florida State defends ball screens. Texas is the most ball screen heavy team I've watched this season, and Florida State is very capable of going small and just switching all of those actions. I think the bigger players, such as Scottie Barnes and RaiQuan Gray, are capable of surviving on an island against the guards most of the time. As long as the lob passes aren't perfectly placed, the other players should be able to contain the big men on switches because they won't mash them in the post. Where I think Texas will have an advantage on offense is that their guards are just such good creators. They can really exploit any slight advantages, and they could just feast with FSU just giving them those slight advantages. Also, Ngom and Koprovica will not be able to play a second of this game. On the other side of the ball, the size of Florida State could overwhelm a Texas team that likes to play three guards on the floor at the same time. Where I think they will be okay is that Florida State isn't really a high-level shooting team, and Texas has strong rim protection. Texas may live with a bunch of contested threes by the bigger players. I'm going to take Texas to advance to the Final Four because I'm a big believer in the guard play.
Yasser: 4. Florida State vs. 2. Alabama
Score Prediction and Win %: Florida St.: 74.0 (41.4%), Alabama 76.5 (58.6%)
Florida State had 25 turnovers against Georgia Tech in the ACC title match. I think that when Alabama turns up the speed on Florida State (which we know they will), Florida State will turn the ball over far too much. Alabama has sharpshooters and driving finishers that can capitalize on these turnovers and steals. I think Alabama will proceed to the final four.
South
Round of 64
1. Baylor vs. 16. Hartford
Score Prediction and Win %: Baylor 80.5 (98.7%), Hartford 52.9 (1.3%)
NBA prospects: Davion Mitchell (12), Jared Butler (19), Mark Vital (88), Matthew Mayer (WL1), MaCio Teague (WL2)
Bryce: Hartford actually has some pretty good guards on defense, and Traci Carter is going to hound the Baylor backcourt all game. The bigger issue is that Hartford offense, which just isn't good at generating shots. Recipe for disaster against the Bears.
Yasser: Baylor in my opinion is the 2nd or 3rd strongest 1-seed and they will beat Hartford.
8. North Carolina vs. 9. Wisconsin
Score Prediction and Win %: North Carolina 63.6 (34.4%), Wisconsin 67.8 (65.6%)
NBA prospects: Day'Ron Sharpe (38), Caleb Love (WL1)
Bryce: This is a really interesting matchup. I think Wisconsin is terribly under seeded as a 9. This is a clash of two differing styles. On the one hand, you have UNC, who rotates through four more traditional big men and they love to play out of the post and crash the defensive glass. On the other hand, you have a team of pick and pop specialists. I think both of these teams are going to struggle defensively to stop each other’s particular scheme. At the end of the day, if Day'Ron Sharpe plays a ton of minutes I think UNC wins. He is a great defensive matchup. However, Roy Williams usually defers to the experience of Bacot and Brooks, so give me the Badgers.
Yasser: North Carolina is among the largest teams in the nation in player size, and they have their way with offensive rebounds. They have ended the season on a good note, and I think they can win the matchup against Wisconsin, who has lately been struggling despite a solid start to the season.
5. Villanova vs. 12. Winthrop
Score Prediction and Win %: Villanova 81.5 (86.3%), Winthrop 68.1 (13.7%)
NBA prospects: Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (64), Justin Moore (WL1)
Bryce: No Collin Gillespie, no Final Four. The spread motion offense just doesn't work without him. Winthrop is capable of going to a lot of different offensive looks, they love to run the floor and shoot the ball, and I think Villanova and their lack of depth will get exposed. I also think they are just going to struggle without Gillespie. I hate picking against Jay Wright in the first round, but I'm going to do it anyway.
Yasser: Winthrop won the Big South Regular season and tournament. I think they are the second best 12-seed, and in my opinion, Villanova has struggled later in the season to live up to the early-season hype and are also missing Collin Gillespie who is their leading scorer. I think Winthrop can pull the upset on this one.
4. Purdue vs. 13. North Texas
Score Prediction and Win %: Purdue 64.3 (74.4%), North Texas 57.9 (25.6%)
NBA prospects: Jaden Ivey (WL2)
Bryce: How could you pick against a school called the Mean Green? The Mean Green have an active and athletic defense, but I don't think they can score well enough to beat this Purdue team. Javion Hamlet is going to score points, but who's going to help him. Also, Trevion Williams is probably just a little meaner than anyone on North Texas.
Yasser: I am a believer in this young Purdue squad. Zach Edey has been transforming into a solid center who can put up North of 20 points per game in the Big 10. Jaden Ivey attacks the rim and draws fouls, while the experienced Aaron Wheeler and Trevion Williams can shoot 3 pointers, and work magic in the post, respectively. I think Purdue can easily beat North Texas.
6. Texas Tech vs. 11. Utah State
Score Prediction and Win %: Texas Tech 65.9 (63.8%), Utah State 62.3 (36.2%)
NBA prospects: Terrence Shannon Jr. (17), Neemias Queta (37)
Bryce: Utah State just doesn't have the athletes to handle Texas Tech. I think Neemias Queta is really good, but I don't love the players around him. They already lack perimeter creation, so how are they going to create against this Texas Tech team? The one thing they do have going for them is their paint defense, but I think the Red Raiders have enough shot makers to easily push through this one.
Yasser: Texas Tech has been overshadowed by the other great Big 12 teams, and Mac McClung has been great as a guard, leading them in scoring. Utah State lacks valuable wins, getting swept by both Boise State and San Diego State in the regular season. Texas Tech will win this one.
3. Arkansas vs. 14. Colgate
Score Prediction and Win %: Arkansas 81.6 (77.7%), Colgate 72.3 (22.3%)
NBA prospects: Moses Moody (9), Justin Smith (WL2)
Bryce: This is one of the great 3-14 matchups of the history of March Madness. If there's one thing both these teams love to do, it's run. They are going to run up and down the floor all night long. It's too bad that Colgate doesn't defend, so my bet would be that Arkansas is going to rack up a ton of points in this one.
Yasser: Arkansas has been looking amazing lately, with Moses Moody, Jalen Tate, and Connor Vanover looking like very solid players. They have many quality wins under their belt in the SEC, knocking out Missouri, Alabama, Florida, and LSU all in a row. Colgate is the best 14-seed in this tournament, but I still think Arkansas will win.
7 Florida vs. 10. Virginia Tech
Score Prediction and Win %: Florida 69.5 (53.5%), Virginia Tech 68.6 (46.5%)
NBA prospects: Tre Mann (13), Scottie Lewis (65), Keve Aluma (92) Keyontae Johnson (WL1)
Bryce: If we're being honest here, I don't love the offensive scheme of Virginia Tech. I think they should be taking advantage of their big men that can shoot the ball. I love the side to side and false actions they run, but I think it could be better optimized if an NBA guy got in there. Florida is a talented team that will give Tech some fits. Good luck trying to guard Tre Mann without much help, as VT likes to do. I also think they are going to have their way in the pick and roll. I am very happily picking my guy Tre Mann to advance.
Yasser: These teams are very even in my opinion, but Florida seems to have more quality wins than VT. I could in reality see this game going either way, but I’ll choose Florida to win it.
2. Ohio State vs. 15. Oral Roberts
Score Prediction and Win %: Ohio State 87.0 (92.2%), Oral Roberts 68.4 (7.8%)
NBA prospects: E.J. Liddell (WL2), Max Abmas (WL2)
Bryce: Okay, hear me out. Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor have got to be two of the best players to ever play on a 15 seed together. Like, they are both just super talented. I think Abmas is good enough to walk into a high major program and look like Carlik Jones. I think Obanor will play high level European or G-League basketball for a living. And these two guys work well off each other. They run a lot of pick and pop, which is hard to stop with two guys that can score, pass, handle, and shoot. The reason I am not going to pick Oral Roberts in a huge upset is because they don't play any defense, and Duane Washington and E.J. Liddell are probably going to light them up. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the Buckeyes lose here.
Yasser: Ohio State has shown that they can keep up with/beat the best teams in the nation, defeating 1-seed Michigan in the Big 10 tournament. I think they will defeat ORU.
Round of 32
Bryce: 1. Baylor vs. 9. Wisconsin
Score Prediction and Win %: Baylor: 70.2 (76.6%), Wisconsin 62.5 (23.4%)
As much as I love Wisconsin, I don't think they can handle the guard play of Baylor. Don't get me wrong, Davidson and Trice are really good, but the Baylor guards are just on a whole other level. I would pick the Badgers against a couple of the other 1 seeds, just not this one. They are super experienced, and they can cause matchup problems for teams with smaller guards or immobile big men. Baylor doesn't experience either issue.
Yasser: 1. Baylor vs. 8. North Carolina
Score Prediction and Win %: Baylor: 79.1 (85.8%), North Carolina 66.3 (14.2%)
Baylor is one of the best teams in the nation at the moment due in part to the extreme versatility of their players. They sport one of the highest 3-point percentages in the entire nation, and they can also play in the paint. North Carolina is a team who relies on their size to dominate in the paint, as they grab the most offensive rebounds of any team in the nation. I predict that they will be able to control the paint, but they will have a hard time stopping Baylor’s precise ball movement and 3-point shot creation. I really want to pick UNC to win this one, but I really do think Baylor will be able to win in a close game.
12. Winthrop vs. 4. Purdue
Score Prediction and Win %: Purdue: 77.4 (80.0%), Winthrop 67.6 (20.0%)
Bryce: Sorry Winthrop, I don't think you're good enough to beat a high major with all of their players. I don't see how Burns will do anything in this matchup, but I am intrigued by the Winthrop 5 out offense they can go to. I think Vaudrin will be able to hold his own, but I just don't see it from the other guys. I also think Trevion Williams is going to have a fun time picking this defense apart with his ability to pass the rock. Give me the Boilermakers to go to the Sweet Sixteen.
Yasser: Winthrop is a very solid team, but Purdue is even more solid. They have major paint presence in Trevion Williams and Zach Edey, and some serious rim attackers in Jaden Ivey and Eric Hunter Jr. Purdue is however, lacking in 3-point shooting compared to Winthrop. I think that whoever controls the paint wins the game, and that is probably going to be Purdue. Despite me saying that Baylor can win despite being outrebounded in the previous matchup, Winthrop does not employ the same world-class ball movement to create shots, and for this reason they will lose to Purdue.
6. Texas Tech vs. 3. Arkansas
Score Prediction and Win %: Texas Tech: 70.6 (54.4%), Arkansas 69.4 (45.6%)
Bryce: This is an incredible game. This game is almost too good for the second round. It's almost like Texas Tech is under seeded. This is an interesting matchup because a lot of teams can't guard what Arkansas wants to do on offense. They will play a 5 out with 5 dudes that can shoot, and they will get into the lane and hit a lot of tough shots. I think Texas Tech is a good defensive match up for them. Santos-Silva is a good enough athlete to move his feet with Justin Smith when he's a small ball 5. The no middle style and early help should lend itself well to stop Arkansas. I am a little concerned about the Texas Tech offense. Outside of McClung, I am not sure if Shannon, Peavy, Santos-Silva, or McCullar can create enough to lead this team to winning. I've gone back and forth on this game about 1 million times, but I'm going to go with the Red Raiders.
Yasser: Moses Moody and Mac McClung will be going head-to-head in this matchup, so I feel like this game will be decided by the supporting team around those star guards. Arkansas has a size advantage with Connor Vanover and solid talent in Jalen Tate, but Texas Tech I think has more high scorers that can propel them to a victory such as Kevin McCullar and Micah Peavey, although I think this matchup could go either way and will be a close game.
7. Florida vs. 2. Ohio State
Score Prediction and Win %: Florida: 71.9 (35.4%), Ohio St. 76.3 (64.6%)
Bryce: Collin Castleton has gotten a lot better since his time at Michigan. But has he gotten a lot more athletic, or has he gained foot speed? The answer is no. I think the Buckeyes are just going to kill Florida in the pick and pop. Castleton is going to be played right off the floor in this one quickly. I think Florida could actually make this interesting if they decided to go with a small lineup with Duruji at and with Scottie Lewis replacing Castleton. At that point I think they could late switch the pick and pop and just run E.J. Liddell to death in the pick and roll at the other end. I just don't think Mike White is going to do it, and if he does it won't happen fast enough. Give me the Buckeyes.
Yasser: Ohio State is such a versatile team and has shown that they can beat the best teams in the nation. I’ve watched most of their games throughout the season and I have seen that Duane Washington Jr., EJ Lidell, Kyle Young, and Justice Sueing are all Swiss Army knives and Ohio State’s lack of a huge center has not stopped them from dominating in a conference full of teams with huge centers (Kofi Cockburn, Luka Garza, Liam Robbins, Zach Edey, etc.). I think this game will be the opposite of a close victory for Ohio State.
Sweet 16
1. Baylor vs. 4. Purdue
Score Prediction and Win %: Baylor: 73.8 (81.3%), Purdue 63.9 (18.7%)
Bryce: Purdue is a year away from being able to contend in a game like this. They have a really nice core group of guys that are probably going to be back next season, but their core isn't even close to the level of the Baylor core of Butler, Teague, Mitchell, and Vital. Matchup-wise, Purdue loves to run everything through Trevion Williams because he can work out of the post and he is a really good passer. I think Thamba and Tchamwa Tchatchoua are both athletic and strong enough to hang with Williams in the post. My bigger issue with the matchup is Purdue loves to run a ton of off ball action to get guys looks. They don't have the best individual shot creation, but the off-ball movement is always really good. This is where Baylor thrives defensively. They switch everything off the ball, bump cutters, and can really slow opposing offenses that rely on cutting to a grinding halt. I don't think Purdue will be able to put up enough points to win this game. But watch out for this team next season...
Yasser: Purdue is a very solid team, but Baylor’s no-middle defense may be an issue for a team that revolves around big man Trevion Williams’s paint presence. Baylor harnesses superior ball movement and excellent shooting, and I think Purdue would struggle to do the same. Baylor moves to the elite 8.
Bryce: 6. Texas Tech vs. 2. Ohio State
Score Prediction and Win %: Texas Tech: 67.3 (39.8%), Ohio St. 70.1 (60.2%)
If you can handle the pick and pop and the guard play of Ohio State, then you can beat them. I think Texas Tech can do both. All of the Texas Tech guards not named Mac McClung are really good on the ball defensively. I think that they have three guards in their rotation that can affect Duane Washington. I also think Texas Tech has the guards (outside of McClung) to straight up switch the pick and pop and kill the action. I'm going to pick Texas Tech because I think they match up well defensively, but here is my worry: what the heck do you do with McClung? If you put him on Walker, he is going to get pick and popped to death. McClung isn't capable of switching that action. If you don't put him on Walker, where do you put him? He can't guard Washington and he doesn't have to size to handle anyone else. Here's what I would do with him: I wouldn't put him on the floor when E.J. Liddell is on the floor. He's too much of a defensive hole. I've seen Texas Tech go away from McClung during games because of his defense, and this pick is banking on Chris Beard making the right decisions to help his team win this game. I think the winner of this game will be determined by Chris Beard, but the good news is he's and awesome coach.
Yasser: 2. Ohio State vs. 3. Arkansas
Score Prediction and Win %: Ohio St.: 77.9 (64.0%), Arkansas 73.6 (36.0%)
Arkansas is a great team that features an NBA prospect and has many meaningful wins in the SEC, but Ohio State is of a different caliber. It will be interesting to see Arkansas’ 7’3” forward Connor Vanover match up with either Zed Key or EJ Liddel, but I have a feeling Key and Liddel’s muscle can restrict Vanover’s movement as lacks strength. Ohio State guards Duane Washington Jr. and CJ Walker can play solid defense and are great shooters to boot. Ohio State has proved that their arsenal of scorers is too much for most Big 10 teams, and I think they can bring that to this matchup and ultimately advance to the elite 8
Elite 8
Bryce: 1. Baylor vs. 6. Texas Tech
Score Prediction and Win %: Baylor: 72.8 (79.7%), Texas Tech 63.7 (20.3%)
This is the game where the Texas Tech reliance on a guard who can't defend will really get exploited. The problem here is that Mac McClung will get killed on defense in this game. All of Butler, Mitchell, Teague, and Flagler will be able to take him off the dribble. There is nowhere to hide McClung in this game. So, the solution is to just take him out of the game like I suggested against Ohio State, right? Well, the Baylor defense and the Ohio State defense is not the same. Texas Tech needs McClung for his offense if they want to have a chance of winning. That's where the problem lies. Texas Tech needs McClung for his offense, but he is going to hold them back on defense. Even with McClung in the game, I think Baylor is good enough defensively to bother this team a lot. Mitchell is going to hound McClung, and no one else is really a high-level creator of offense. I don't think there is a solution to the issues Texas Tech will face, so I am going to go with Baylor.
Yasser: 1. Baylor vs. 2. Ohio State
Score Prediction and Win %: Baylor: 76.9 (70.6%), Ohio St. 70.6 (29.4%)
I can see Ohio State’s star big man EJ Liddel running into foul trouble trying to protect the rim from Baylor’s driving finishers. Without Liddel and Kyle Young (due to injury) in the game, Ohio State will be forced to employ the inexperienced freshman Zed Key. I think he will struggle to defend the interior against Baylor’s extremely skilled finishers. Both sides can shoot the 3-point shot very well, but I think Baylor will be able to control the paint just a bit better than Ohio State. Baylor advances to the final four.
Midwest
Round of 64
1. Illinois vs. 16. Drexel
Score Prediction and Win %: Illinois 77.6 (93.1%), Drexel 60.2 (6.9%)
NBA prospects: Ayo Dosunmu (15), Kofi Cockburn (91), Trent Frazier (WL3)
Bryce: Drexel is an interesting matchup for Illinois because they run a lot of 5 out sets. 5 out sets absolutely will kill Kofi Cockburn. But on the other end, they just have no chance. Ayo and Kofi are going to have their way in the pick and roll all game long.
Yasser: Drexel is probably the strongest 16-seed in this tournament, but I’m a huge believer in Illinois being among the top 3 teams in the entire tournament. Illinois will win this one for sure and it will likely be a blowout.
8. Loyola Chicago vs. 9. Georgia Tech
Score Prediction and Win %: Loyola Chicago 67.4 (69.8%), Georgia Tech 62.1 (30.2%)
NBA prospects: Moses Wright (52), Michael Devoe (WL3)
Bryce: Man, every single 8 and 9 seed is probably under seeded. How on earth is Georgia Tech a 9? I think Loyola Chicago has a really good team, but their scheme is all about not bringing help from the corners and trusting their guys in 1 on 1 matchups to force tough shots. How is Krutwig going to guard Moses Wright? How are their guards going to defend Alverado and Devoe? I think Moses Wright will absolutely be able to blow up everything Loyola Chicago wants to do on both ends of the floor. This is just a super tough matchup for Loyola Chicago who I think is really good. Even though this team is way better than their Final Four team, I think they are going to lose to the Yellow Jackets in Round 1.
Update: Pain. Moses Wright is out for the first two rounds. This team already only plays like 6 guys, and now their best player isn't going to play. Moses Wright is Georgia Tech basketball. He is the reason they are so good. For a center to be able to move the way he does and kill slower footed players, he opens up everything on both ends of the floor. With him gone, I think the Loyola Chicago offense will cmpletely open up. I thought Wright could really bother Krutwig, but now Loyola Chigaco is going to be able to run offense through him without a worry in the world. They will be able to run all of their delay sets without a high element of ball pressure. Krutwig should also now always have an advantageous matchup in the post on the catch, and he is too good of a passer to not show creative doubles. On defense Krutwig is going to be able to provide much more help on drives from Alverado and Devoe. Krutwig is going to be able to hide on someone defensively, and now the Ramblers match up well. I hate this pandemic. I'm changing my pick to Loyola Chicago.
Yasser: Loyola Chicago in my opinion is overrated. Their brushes with ranked opposition have not even gone their way. They are a solid team, but without meaningful wins on their resume it is hard to believe that they are the better team in this matchup. They have a good record, but in the MVC which, excluding Drake, is a relatively weak conference. Georgia Tech has held their own against many ACC opponents, and they barely lost to Virginia. I believe Georgia tech can win this one.
5. Tennessee vs. 12. Oregon State
Score Prediction and Win %: Tennessee 68.3 (86.4%), Oregon State 57.0 (13.6%)
NBA prospects: Keon Johnson (7), Jaden Springer (14), Yves Pons (66), Josiah Jordan-James (WL1)
Bryce: It was fun while it lasted Beavers. You guys don't protect the rim and you don't have the athletes to bother Tennessee on either end of the floor. Honestly, I have no idea how you won the Pac-12 tournament.
Yasser: Tennessee has been shaky as of late but are a very solid team. I think they will hold on against Oregon State.
4. Oklahoma State vs. 13. Liberty
Score Prediction and Win %: Oklahoma State 68.8 (74.9%), Liberty 61.8 (25.1%)
NBA prospects: Cade Cunningham (1)
Bryce: I like Liberty, but they got a tough matchup here. High variability schemes lead to a high variability of results, so nothing would surprise me in this one. The flames live up to the name on offense, shooting a ton of 3's and making them at a high rate. How Oklahoma State defends Darius McGhee will be interesting, but I think one of their more athletic guards can just top lock him out of the game. Liberty also has not shot at guarding Cade Cunningham. Anything can happen if the flames catch fire, but I'm going with Cade.
Yasser: I believe that Liberty is probably the best 13-seed in this tournament, but Oklahoma state also happens to be the best 4-seed in the tournament. Cade Cunningham has led this team to a victory over Baylor in the Big-12 tournament. Any team who can defeat Baylor is a force to be reckoned with. I think they will win this matchup.
6. San Diego State vs. 11. Syracuse
Score Prediction and Win %: San Diego State 70.2 (62.0%), Syracuse 66.9 (38.0%)
NBA prospects: Matt Mitchell (57), Jordan Schackel (92), Quincy Guerrier (WL2), Kadary Richmond (WL3)
Bryce: I would like to wish Syracuse the best of luck trying to win against San Diego State with their offensive scheme. They have a lot of talented offensive players, but they don't have a ton of ball or player movement. That may work against some of the weak ACC defenses, but it isn't going to work against the San Diego State super pack line. I think Schakel and Mitchell are going to generate enough offense to beat the Cuse 2-3 zone, and I think SDSU will take this one.
Yasser: Syracuse has defeated both Virginia Tech and UNC by sizeable margins, which I see as two very valuable wins. San Diego State does not have a win that is as valuable as either of Syracuse’s. For that reason, I think Syracuse can pull the upset.
3. West Virginia vs. 14. Morehead State
Score Prediction and Win %: West Virginia 73.0 (88.1%), Morehead State 60.1 (11.9%)
NBA prospects: Miles McBride (33)
Bryce: Broome has had a great season as a freshman, but Derek Culver is going to treat his like a rag doll. He is just too big for Broome o handle. I actually think the perimeter defense of Morehead State is interesting with the way they can switch but switching against McBride is going to be tough. I think the Mountaineers will have their way in this one.
Yasser: West Virginia is a very solid all-around team, and I do not see them losing this matchup.
7. Clemson vs. 10. Rutgers
Score Prediction and Win %: Clemson 60.4 (41.5%), Rutgers 62.4 (58.5%)
NBA prospects: Ron Harper Jr. (61), Aamir Simms (73)
Bryce: I don't think Clemson is good, and I don't think they should be seeded ahead of almost any of the 8 or 9 seeds. They are just so reliant an Aamir Simms that I don't know how they got here. Don't get me wrong, I love Aamir Simms, but they just aren't very talented outside of him. I think Myles Johnson can handle him well enough, and I think the shooting of Baker, Young, and Harper will push Rutgers to a win.
Yasser: Rutgers has excellent players in Geo Baker, Ron Harper Jr., and Myles Johnson. They have several quality wins against very capable Big 10 Teams. However, Clemson has beaten Alabama, Purdue, Maryland, and Florida State who are all extremely solid teams. Clemson has proven that they too can win against Big 10 teams. I think Clemson will hold on.
2. Houston vs. 15. Cleveland State
Score Prediction and Win %: Houston 70.5 (94.1%), Cleveland State 53.8 (5.9%)
NBA prospects: Quentin Grimes (76)
Bryce: Cleveland State is like the dollar store edition of Houston. They play really tough defense, and all their guys have bought in. Dennis Gates has done an incredible job with the program, and he is going to get hired somewhere at a larger school. Cleveland State just isn't talented enough.
Yasser: Houston has been a solid team throughout the season, and I do not see this 15-2 matchup being one of those extremely rare upsets.
Round of 32
1. Illinois vs. 8. Loyola Chicago
Score Prediction and Win %: Illinois: 69.2 (61.5%), Loyola Chicago 66.1 (38.5%)
Bryce: You know what? I'm going with the face shield and picking the Yellow Jackets. I think that Josh Pastner will establish himself as a serious coach in this game, and not just as a goofy guy who wears a face shield and brings a COVID piñata to the locker room (look up the YouTube video). I think this Georgia Tech team is an absolute nightmare for the Illini. On the offensive side of the ball, Moses Wright will eat Kofi Cockburn alive. Kofi just can't move his feet well enough to stay with him. The rest of the Georgia Tech talent are also going to benefit from Cockburn being spaced away from the rim. Alverado, Usher, and Devoe are all going to have their lives made easier. On the other side of the ball, I think the funky 1-3-1 matchup zone can disrupt Illinois. It disrupts a lot of teams, but does Illinois really have the shooting to kill this zone? Also, if GT goes man, I think Wright can handle Cockburn in the pick and roll. He is just so strong and athletic; I think he is up for tdhe challenge. Alverado is also the perfect guy to put on Ayo, he's just going to be a pest all game long. I do have some concerns about this upset pick. First, I think Ayo is the best player in the country. It is tough to pick against him in the second round. Second, I think if Moses Wright gets in foul trouble or shots aren't falling this could be a blowout. Neither of those worries scare me enough to not go big with the Yellow Jackets.
Update: Pain. I'm leaving all the nice things I said about Georgia Tech in here. I love that team, and it pains me to see their season collapse because of an untimely COVID positive. Loyola Chicago does not match up well with Illinois at all. Their defensive scheme is all about forcing the other team's guards to play 1 on 1. Good luck with that against Ayo Dosunmu and Andre Curbelo. Also, I don't think Cameron Krutwig has the strength or athleticism to defend in a pick and roll with Ayo and Cockburn. I also think the general size and length of this Illinois team will be unlike anything Loyola Chicago has seen this year. I'm going with Illinois to win the battle of Illinois.
Yasser: 1. Illinois vs. 9. Georgia Tech
Score Prediction and Win %: Illinois: 76.3 (78.0%), Georgia Tech 67.4 (22.0%)
Georgia Tech is not stellar in any significant team statistic categories, while Illinois has an incredibly dominant offense. Kofi Cockburn terrorizes the rim with huge dunks and dominant finishing, while Ayo Dosunmu, Andre Curbelo, Trent Frazier, and Georgi Bezhanishvili create quality offense in many ways, and I think this will be too much to handle for Georgia Tech.
5. Tennessee vs. 4. Oklahoma State
Score Prediction and Win %: Tennessee: 67.8 (65.5%), Oklahoma St. 63.7 (34.5%)
Bryce: I think Cade Cunningham is an absolutely unbelievable player. I think he is one of the 5 or 6 best draft prospects we have had in the past decade. I also just don't think his surrounding talent is that good. Sure, Anderson and Boone have gotten a lot better as the season has gone on, but are those guys up to the level of this Tennessee team? There are not 5 more talented teams in the country than Tennessee. If Rick Barnes could've ever put it together with a better scheme that makes more sense, I think Tennessee would be a huge threat to win the championship. While I think the Volunteers offensive scheme still needs a lot of work, they can really defend. I think Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer can do just enough to bother Cade. I think on offense, they just have too many good players for me to think they are going to lose to this Oklahoma State team. I know they have been playing well as of late, but I think Cade's college basketball career ends here.
Yasser: Oklahoma State has been looking phenomenal lately led by Cade Cunningham. They beat Baylor and then lost by only 5 points to an amazing Texas team in the Big 12 tournament. Tennessee is a good team but are extremely inconsistent. I do not see Tennessee being able to contain Oklahoma State’s top-caliber offense and meet it with the same intensity and shot consistency.
6. San Diego State vs. 3. West Virginia
Score Prediction and Win %: San Diego St.: 68.5 (46.3%), West Virginia 69.5 (53.7%)
Bryce: This is a really tough game. West Virginia has a really good offense, and SDSU has a really good defense. Do I think Mensah can handle Culver? Yes. Mensah can move his feet, he is big and strong, and I think he will wash him out on offense. I really like Deuce McBride, and I think his first step can punish this high-pressure defensive scheme. But the Aztecs are really good in help and recover, and their pack line is extremely well coached. For me, I don't know if West Virginia has enough sources of creation to win this game with offense. Taz Sherman is good, but this Aztecs defense is really tough. I think Dutcher will be able to scheme McNeil out of the game. My only question is the other side of the ball. SDSU does not have a traditional point guard to generate offense. However, I think this West Virginia team just has too many weak links on defense. I'll take the Aztecs to advance.
Yasser: West Virginia features a very solid defense and offense as well, which is a killer combination. Syracuse may have edged SDSU in the 1st round, but they cannot topple West Virginia, who has shown that they can dominate in the second-strongest conference in college basketball.
Bryce: 10. Rutgers vs. 2. Houston
Score Prediction and Win %: Rutgers: 62.2 (31.4%), Houston 67.1 (68.6%)
I picked Rutgers to win the last game against a Clemson team I don't think is very good. That doesn't mean I think this Rutgers team is all that great. They have a pretty good defense, but the Houston defense is far superior. I don't think their basic horns sets are going to give many problems to the Houston defense. I don't see how Rutgers can generate enough offense to win this game. Rutgers does have a good defense, but I don't think they match up all that well with the size of Houston's best players. I'll take Houston to advance.
Yasser: 7. Clemson vs. 2. Houston
Score Prediction and Win %: Clemson: 57.1 (24.1%), Houston 63.9 (75.9%)
Houston is a defensive monster of a team, leading the nation in defensive field goal percentage. They also feature a solid offense. I think it will be hard for Clemson to outscore Houston and defeat them. Houston will advance to the sweet 16.
Sweet 16
Bryce: 1. Illinois vs. 5. Tennessee
Score Prediction and Win %: Illinois: 69.2 (61.3%), Tennessee 66.1 (38.7%)
To me, I think this matchup depends on what Rick Barnes decides to do with Fulkerson. Fulkerson is a very good player, but he does not match up well with a lot of teams because of his lack of foot speed on the perimeter and lack of a perimeter jumper. I think if Fulkerson plays only 15-20 minutes, Tennessee will win this game. I think if he plays more, they lose. If Fulkerson doesn't play, I think Tennessee can space the floor and run a ton of their off-ball actions (floppy!) that they like to run. I think they have the athleticism to slash through the 1-3-1 matchup zone, and they have the shooting to drive and kick against it. Without Fulkerson on the floor, Yves Pons would be the center and he is the perfect matchup for defending Moses Wright. The rest of the wings and guards are good enough defensively I think they could handle this whole offense. Georgia Tech is athletic, but Tennessee is on a different level when it comes to athleticism. I'm picking the Volunteers to advance.
Update: I hate this. Nothing made me more happy than talking about Georgia Tech basketball and their potential success. In case you're wondering, I have absolutely no relation to the school. I just like their basketball team this year. I watched a little bit of how Tennessee handled Jeremiah Tilmon to think about how they could match up with Kofi Cockburn. They defended him with John Fulkerson. On screens, the had Fulkerson hard hedge and Yves Pons was generally the guy to provide the tag. They also sent a double from the weakside corner during a post touch, and Yves Pons would also come to triple at times. I don't think Cockburn can pass at all out of the post, so I think defending him tis way would work. I think Keon Johnson is the perfect player to guard Ayo on the perimeter. He has super quick feet and he is phenomenal at getting around screens. I just really like this Tennessee team. I think that some of their success will hinge on if Rick Barnes decides to go with some smaller groups. Put Yves Pons at the 5 and force Kofi to defend in space. To me that's how you beat this team. With Fulkerson out there, just run a bunch of delay and elbow series to get Cockburn away from the basket. I think good enough coaching will be able to beat this Illinois team, it's just a matter of how well Rick Barnes game plans. I trust him enough to pick Tennessee to advance.
Yasser: 1. Illinois vs. 4. Oklahoma State
Score Prediction and Win %: Illinois: 77.0 (74.2%), Oklahoma St. 69.4 (25.8%)
I can see Illinois utilizing Ayo Dosunmu to guard top NBA prospect Cade Cunningham, attempting to contain him. Aside from Cunningham, I think the rest of Oklahoma State will not be able to compete with Dosunmu’s teammates Kofi Cockburn, Trent Frazier, and Georgi Bezhanishvili. I simply don’t see an Oklahoma State answer for Cockburn’s paint dominance. Therefore, Illinois will advance.
Bryce: 6. San Diego State vs. 2. Houston
Score Prediction and Win %: San Diego St.: 61.3 (33.9%), Houston 65.4 (66.1%)
People who love basketball are going to love this matchup, but people who casually watch the sport are going to hate it. These two teams play defense. It's why I think they are both going to get here. San Diego State plays an awesome style of aggressive pack line with a bunch of strong, switchable dudes. Houston plays an uber-aggressive scheme where they get up into you, double all over the place, and really kill you if you try to get in the paint. This game is going to be a beautiful showing of defense, but a downright ugly showing of offense. Here's what it simply comes down to for me: I just think Houston is better at both ends of the floor. On offense, SDSU does not have a point guard that can really create. I think they are going to struggle in this matchup without a really strong ball handler. At least Houston has Jarreau, and I think Grimes will be the best offensive player in this game. On the other side of the ball, I just like Houston's personnel slightly better. This game could certainly go either way, especially with the foul trouble both teams will probably be in, but I'm taking the Cougars to move on.
Yasser: 3. West Virginia vs. 2. Houston
Score Prediction and Win %: West Virginia: 67.5 (37.9%), Houston 70.9 (62.1%)
This matchup represents two defensive powerhouses. Their defenses are both very restrictive and force the opponent to take bad shots thus yielding a lower opponent field goal percentage. I think the winner will be decided by whoever can control the offense. I think West Virginia is just a tad more dangerous as an offensive force, and they will just barely edge Houston to make the elite 8.
Elite 8
Bryce: 5. Tennessee vs. 2. Houston
Score Prediction and Win %: Tennessee: 60.9 (39.6%), Houston 63.5 (60.4%)
Another defensive battle in this region. Both of these teams will bring the pressure on the defensive side of the ball. Tennessee and their "Ball hawking Doberman Defense" are going to really get into Jarreau, Sasser, and Grimes. However, on the other side of the ball Houston will bring even more pressure. Tennessee has talent, but I don't know if they have enough passing or continuity on the offensive side of the ball to pull this game out. Fulkerson likes to play in the post, but he is going to get doubled a lot and get nothing out of those post ups. I don't think he is a good enough passer to make the necessary cross court skip reads he needs to. You also have to beat this Houston defense by making some slightly contested 3's. Tennessee is just not good enough at shooting the ball to beat them that way. On the flip side, the Houston guards are going to have to come up big on offense. They have been inconsistent on that end all year long, but I think the separating factor will be Jarreau. His passing ability will give this Houston offense some stability, and I think it will be a big reason as to why Houston makes the Final Four. I'm sticking with the Cougars.
Yasser: 1. Illinois vs. 3. West Virginia
Score Prediction and Win %: Illinois: 77.1 (62.8%), West Virginia 73.3 (37.2%)
I think this game will be close, but I want to give it to WVU. Cockburn will keep getting fouls trying to protect the rim from the crafty finishers of WVU. Also, WVU has more diversity in scoring ability than Illinois, particularly with 3-pointers. The game will definitely be close and high-scoring but I think West Virginia can edge Illinois to earn a dance with Baylor in the final four.
Final 4
Bryce: 1. Gonzaga vs. 3. Texas
Score Prediction and Win %: Gonzaga: 84.6 (80.2%), Texas 73.8 (19.8%)
Do I have the stones to pick against the undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs? Am I going to pick against the team that has been absolutely dominating college basketball all season long? Am I going to go completely against what my computer is telling me by picking against a team who would be 8.5-point favorites? The answer to all of those questions is absolutely. I love this Texas Longhorns team. I think they are awesome. I think they match up incredibly well with Gonzaga. What Gonzaga does really well on offense is they run in transition, move the ball, and get into the paint. I think the athleticism of Texas will allow them to get back in transition and defend. I think the combination of Jericho Sims and Kai Jones will do a good enough job of protecting the rim. What makes me nervous is those guards on defense. Which one of them is going to step up and top lock Corey Kispert all game? Which one is going to step up and defend Jalen Suggs? Here's where I like Texas on defense in the half court: I think they can handle Timme one on one in the post and I think they can either switch or drop on ball screens against Suggs. You don't have to stop the Zags every time down the floor, but you have to do it enough to give yourself a chance on offense. I think Texas has a chance to beat anyone because of those three guards. Ramey, Jones, and Coleman are all really good. They can all shoot and handle the ball in the pick and roll. Here's where I think Texas can succeed: attacking Drew Timme in ball screens. If the guards, especially Ramey and Coleman, can hit enough threes off the dribble to force Timme to come up higher on ball screens, then I think it'll open up everything for Texas. It'll open up 3 on 2's on the weakside all day with a skip pass. It'll force the defense into tough situations trying to tag either Sims or Jones rolling to the rim. It's going to take hitting some shots and a great defensive effort for Texas to win this game, but I'm going with the Longhorns to advance to the National Championship game.
Yasser: 1. Gonzaga vs. 2. Alabama
Score Prediction and Win %: Gonzaga: 86.5 (74.0%), Alabama 78.1 (26.0%)
I am not sure if Gonzaga can keep up with the fast-paced Alabama play style. They themselves play fast-paced as well, but Alabama is of a different caliber. Alabama can control the 3-point shot with ease as they have been doing all season. Gonzaga will try to finish in the paint, but Alabama has tons of mobile players who are incredible athletes and can guard Gonzaga’s star players. This game will likely be a track meet with tons of back-and-forth buckets, but I think it is time for Gonzaga to go down. Alabama proceeds to the national championship matchup.
Bryce: 1. Baylor vs. 2. Houston
Score Prediction and Win %: Baylor: 71.0 (69.0%), Houston 65.6 (31.0%)
I wrote a million words about the other Final Four game, but I think this one is much simpler. The best way to handle a high-pressure defense is with really good guards that can handle the ball and make good decisions. The Baylor Bears have four of those players in Butler, Mitchell, Teague, and Flagler. I also think the intricacies of Butler's game are going to help them here. They like to post up their guards, and on post ups Houston always brings a double. The guards are so good at passing that they will be able to find shooters out of these looks. Houston also likes to blitz ball screens. The best way to beat a blitz is with quick ball movement or a short roll. Baylor is capable of doing either, especially when they go small with Vital at the 5. Another good way to beat this Houston defense is with shooting the ball. Well, Baylor is one of the better shooting teams in the country. They have a ton of dudes shooting the ball at a really high level this season. On the other side of the ball, I do think Houston can have some success. Grimes and Jarreau have some size, and they will have a size advantage at times against some of the one-on-one matchups Baylor will throw at them. I also just love the idea of a lot of off ball actions to try and attack some size mismatches, or some misdirection to use the height of Jarreau and have him create some good looks. I just don't think Houston has enough juice to keep up with Baylor. Baylor is the perfect team for combatting the Houston defensive scheme, and they still have a really good defense. I am taking the Bears to advance to the National Championship game.
Yasser: 1. Baylor vs. 3. West Virginia
Score Prediction and Win %: Baylor: 78.8 (77.8%), West Virginia 69.7 (22.2%)
I believe in Baylor’s great ball movement and scoring ability. I think this is a great matchup, and both teams utilize a similar play style. However, I think Baylor has better depth and also better 3-point shooting. It will take a lot of effort to move the ball to avert Baylor’s no-middle defense and get easy buckets. We have seen this Big-12 matchup before this season, going in Baylor’s favor both times. For this reason, I think Baylor can hold on for a national championship appearance.
National Championship
Bryce: 3. Texas vs. 1. Baylor
Score Prediction and Win %: Texas: 67.3 (20.6%), Baylor 76.7 (79.4%)
Baylor and Texas played each other on February 2nd, and Baylor won the game 83-69. While the game wasn't particularly close, Baylor did benefit from some shooting variance. They shot a crazy 11-21 from 3 (52.4%) while Texas shot 10-22 (45.5%, still really good). The weird thing is that at the free throw line Texas only shot 3-14 (21.4%, what?). To get a feel of how the game played out, of course I went back and watched it. What I found was that Baylor threw a ton of different looks at Texas. They iced and switched ball screens while also mixing in the contain and recover, and they also went 2-3 zone. Texas ran a lot of empty side actions to force Baylor to go away from their normal at the level and contain ball screen defense to some success. On the other side of the floor, Texas went to a lot of different looks when defending Baylor off ball action. They went over or went to a lock and trail on most off-ball screens, but a lot of times they switched. On the ball, Texas actually went to a ton of switching to contain the guards. The forced them to hit tough shots over the longer arms of their big men while collapsing on drives. Baylor won the game in convincing fashion, but that doesn't mean they are clearly the better team.
When talking about the game, let's first discuss Baylor on the offensive side of the ball. Baylor loves to run a lot of off ball actions with their guards. They run them off a lot of single and double pin downs to get the defense moving. They also run a lot of weave action that can flow into different looks, allowing their guards to dictate the flow of the offense. They also obviously run a lot of high ball screens and side ball screens to try to mitigate the effects of always playing one or two guys that can't shoot. Where they are really good is with their guard play. They have the best guards in the nation. Where they will succeed is when they can penetrate the defense and get them into a full rotation. This is where Texas isn't great, but they do have some athletes to help out here. Where it will be interesting is to see the on-ball defense. If you can contain the guards, especially on switches during ball screens, then you give yourself a good shot at winning. I think some of the big men may actually be better on ball defenders than some of the guards, so the ball screen defense should be good for Texas. Now looking at the other side of the floor, Texas runs an incredibly pick and roll heavy offense. They do this because they have the personnel to do so. Their level of success will start with how well the guards use ball screens. Baylor plays a no middle style of defense, so they will try to ice everything that goes to the middle of the floor. There are two solutions to this: first, just set the screen higher so the Baylor big man will really have to defend in space, or second change the angle of the screen into a step up. I think these two adjustments could open up a lot for the Texas offense that struggled against Baylor the first time around. Baylor also likes to send a lot of help to the pant on drives, so Texas will need to swing the ball around and find shooters, which is something they were inconsistent at throughout the season. I think with a good enough game plan Texas can give Baylor a run for their money. But here's the thing: it's not easy to adjust so late in the year. Executing a game plan is not always easy when you haven't consistently done it all year. Basketball is all about constantly making split second reads, so when your players have to think that's when mistakes are made. This is why I'm picking Baylor to win this game. I think Texas has to make too many adjustments on both ends of the floor. Baylor is a more talented team that already has a scheme that will work well against Texas. I still think this would be a great game to watch, but my 2021 National Championship is the Baylor Bears.
Yasser: 2. Alabama vs. 1. Baylor
Score Prediction and Win %: Alabama: 71.2 (27.1%), Baylor 78.4 (72.9%)
I love Alabama’s run-and-gun play style, but I do not think their field goal percentages will be enough to outscore the marksmen of Baylor. Also, Baylor features a group of extremely athletic guards who can finish in the paint. Alabama will get a lot of shot attempts, but I am doubtful that they can capitalize on enough of them to outscore Baylor, especially considering Baylor’s amazing defense. Baylor is very good on both ends of the court, and I think they can comfortably beat Alabama to win the national championship.
Bryce's Final Bracket:
Yasser's Final Bracket:
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