The NBA Finals is finally here, and we get a matchup of two of the most unique and interesting teams in the NBA this season. Each has a fun storyline. The Warriors continue their dynasty with their 6th trip to the Finals in 8 years, cementing the insanity of their run. For the Celtics, they finally crack the Finals after losing in the Conference Finals 3 of the previous 5 years. Despite the turmoil throughout the beginning of the season, Boston has fully completed their metamorphosis into arguably the best team in the league. In this preview, I want to cover a ton. It's the Finals, and this biblical matchup deserves a ton of thoughts. Here is a somewhat organized look into the nuances and tactical matchup that makes this series so awesome:
Can the Celtics guard the un-guardable?
While the Warriors defensive has deservingly gotten a lot of attention, it’s their offense that primarily gotten them this far. It may be the most used analogy to describe an offensive scheme but it fits the Warriors perfectly: the way they play is like jazz. It’s a beautiful mix of improvisation out of basic concepts that makes them unpredictable because not even the players can map out what’s coming next. The Mavericks were able to dismantle the Suns high-powered offense with impeccable knowledge of sets and personnel but struggled to defend the Warriors. They’re tough to prepare for, and the Steve Kerr crafted offense based on everything he’s learned as a player and coach has been a massive and underrated reason as to why the Warriors are still good enough to be in this spot.
While the Warriors have arguably the best offense in this year’s Playoffs, the Celtics have arguably one of the best defenses in recent memory. In previous years during the dynasty, the Warriors have been slowed down by length, athleticism, and switchability. Think the Durant Thunder with Ibaka at the 5, Toronto Raptors (also featuring Ibaka), switch-heavy Rockets with Ariza and Mbah a Muote, and Cavs when they unleashed Tristan Thompson. The Celtics are those teams taken up a notch. When they go 7 deep, they have no weak spots. Seriously, is Derrick White the worst defensive player in their ideal rotation? Boston can play multiple coverages. While their base is switching on the ball, they’re capable of dropping (like in the Heat series) showing, or playing at the level. They have the versatility, length, and ground coverage that can possibly slow down this un-guardable offense.
This side of the floor is going to be a clash of two immovable objects. The free-flowing beauty of the Warriors offense against the defense designed to force stagnation and isolation. The best offense pitted against the best defense. In the next group of sections, I want to dive into the nuances of this side of the floor.
What will the Celtics live with?
The Celtics base on the ball has been switching, and that’s generally what slows down the Warriors. The Celtics are going to have to make a decision in this series on what they are going to live with defensively in terms of matchups and shots. Will they scram Horford away from Steph Curry? What about Grant and Robert Williams? What if Poole is flying off the screen?
The Warriors will cause the Celtics to make mistakes trying to plug holes, but the Celtics are the best team in the league at flying around and plugging those holes after a mistake. The ground coverage and collective knowledge is off the charts. One wonders if the Celtics are good enough defensively away from the ball to live with any switch. In their previous series against the Heat, Boston identified Bam Adebayo and P.J. Tucker as players they can help off of in case of breakdowns. In this series the Warriors have plenty of non-shooters, but they are much more active off the ball in setting screens and playing within handoffs. It’s not as easy just to help and recover with the threat of off-ball movement throwing (with for 45 cuts and corner relocations) along with well-timed pin-in screens whenever a non-shooter gets helped off of.
There are a couple other notes to point out in this section. First, the Warriors generally don’t identify a matchup and relentlessly hunt. Their previous series against the Mavericks is the closest I’ve seen to them doing that, but usually within the flow of their offense the weaker defenders will get hunted without needing to stagnate and set a ball screen with his man. That’s what makes it so impossible to hide players against this team. The thing is Boston has no one to hide, but what if the Warriors identify a matchup (Horford on Poole)? Will the Celtics play into their hands and put two on the ball, or will they stick with their switching base scheme?
Steph Curry: gravity vs. length
Steph Curry might be the most underrated playmaker in the history of basketball because he creates shots for others in such non-traditional ways. Instead of being a dominant on-ball weapon, he is the mots dominant off-ball weapon in the history of the sport. His constant movement and weaponization of his 3 constantly create shots for everyone on the floor. He makes two non-shooters playable together. My question is this: what does Boston do when Curry comes off a wide pin down? Floppy? What about a drag screen? Regular ball screen? Post split? Fist exit? Is Boston going to send two to the ball to sell out to the threat of the jumper or will they simply switch and rely on their length and communication?
This is where Curry weaponizes non-shooters. If the Celtics elect to switch, then they have to be up to touch against the non-shooting players who set the screens. Same for if they are showing two to the ball. I think the Celtics are going to switch, but this goes back to the question of what switch they live with. This also incorporates the question of how many paint touches and how much space can Curry generate?
Against the Mavericks, Curry did a great job of using the threat of the jumper to get paint touches. The Mavericks were completely selling out against him on the perimeter, allowing him to get to the lane. The Celtics are a different level of length, closeouts, and perimeter defensive aptitude. Is Curry going to be able to put as much pressure on the rim when the Celtics attempt to take away the jumper? Will they sell out on the jumper as much? If Curry gets the switch onto Horford or either Williams, will be able to either collapse the defense by getting a paint touch or generate enough space for a jumper? This will be a major test of the case for Curry, as his self-creation has slightly declined recently, although he’s still elite.
Celtics off-ball switching and screen navigation
In general, I think the Celtics switch screens off the ball less than people might expect. While their base on the ball is to switch, off the ball they will fight through a lot. This will be important to track against the Warriors for a couple reasons. First, the Celtics overall screen navigation is not great as a team. In general, the bigger the human being the tougher it is to fight through a screen. With the Celtics being built with mostly wing and forward sized players, this makes it difficult for them in more traditional coverages. Where the Celtics are different is the two guard-sized players in their rotation are elite at fighting through screens and staying attached off the ball.
While the Celtics could elect to switch everything and render this section completely meaningless, I think they will do their best to keep either Robert Williams or Al Horford on the back line while keeping Derrick White and Marcus Smart on the Curry/Poole duo. This is where we could see some peel switches or shows incorporated to keep the primary assignments. While the Warriors guards come off a ton of actions, the Celtics guard are elite at locking and trailing. They are also elite at closing ground quickly when recovering and providing rearview contests if beat. If the Celtics elect to simply lock and trail against the guards to keep their help where they want it, they have the best duo in the league to do so.
Smart & White: elite off-ball lock and trail, but what about Smart’s ankle?
I just discussed some of the impacts of Derrick White and Marcus Smart being elite with lock and trails, but what about Smart’s ankle injury. Against the Heat, Marcus Smart had a nasty looking ankle turn that kept him out a game. In Game 7 Smart claimed he was operating at around 60-70%. While the Finals has rest built in before and during the series, ankle injuries can be difficult to create a timeline and recovery plan for.
Ankle injuries don’t get tested as much with straight line movement, rather the omnidirectional movement patterns it generally takes to play NBA defense at a high level. Guarding Curry might be the toughest perimeter assignment in the league, but doing on a sprained ankle obviously makes it much harder. You constantly have to chase him in different directions for entire possessions in completely unpredictable movement patterns. It’s an insane test of ankle flexion.
Robert Williams: health, reactivity, and awareness
One player that was able to bother some of what Golden State wanted to do offensively was Jaren Jackson Jr. He was the primary matchup on Draymond Green, and essentially sagged back in the lane mostly to bother everything. He was a massive reason the Warriors looked somewhat out of sorts in that series. This strategy requires a few things:
1. Obviously a Jaren Jackson Jr. type of figure
2. Really physical and good off-ball defenders that can stick with shooters (Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton)
3. Great communication and athleticism from everyone else
The Celtics have the formula to pull this off if they want to. Earlier in the season, Robert Williams was used to guard to opposing teams center and be impactful that way. Midway through the season, Williams defensive impact exploded by the Celtics putting him on the opposition’s weakest perimeter threat and allowing him to be a roamer on the weakside. He has the Jackson Jr. ability to blow up actions with insane ground coverage, verticality, and length. Just check out this block in the previous series.
One issue is against the Warriors you need reaction time and awareness to pull this role off. That’s still a question I have at times with Robert Williams. Can he recognize the potential danger quickly and accurately enough to blow up the Warriors actions? He has the physical tools, but this will be a major test of the mental element for him (assuming he’s healthy).
Jordan Poole: the ultimate test of the scheme breaker
The Boston Celtics might be a glimpse into the future of what basketball will look like. Fewer point guard sized players, massive initiators, and in general players that are bigger, stronger, and more skilled. Their defense is the embodiment of where the game is heading. Jordan Poole could be the embodiment of what can break these future defensive schemes.
An idea I’ve been personally playing around with is the “scheme breaking” guard. A scheme breaking guard is a player with elite quickness and handle that can get paint touches against some of the leagues best switching and wing-heavy defenses. Think Ja Morant, Tyrese Maxey, Jaden Ivey (?), and Jordan Poole. Poole has a fascinating combination of handle, quickness, creativity, and crazy finishing craft. Poole is an elite finisher around the rim, ranking around the 85th percentile on very difficult attempts the last two seasons. Where he separates himself is with the flashes of special reactive passing.
Poole might be the one player to force Boston out of switching on ball actions, essentially breaking their base scheme. If he can consistently punish Horford and both Williams’ on the perimeter it could truly be a series changer, as it would force Boston’s hand into two to the ball, which is exactly what Golden State wants.
What if Boston whips out the drop?
Hey, remember the drop coverage from last series? What if we just see that? What if we see a complete 180 from what the Mavericks were doing? What if the Celtics say: “we will not give you the switch, we dare you to shoot us out of the game with pull-up 3s with Marcus Smart or Derrick White breathing down your neck”? In theory, Derrick White and Marcus Smart are elite enough at navigating screens and with rearview contests that maybe Boston tries this at times. Maybe not as their base, but as their initial counter if needed this could be used. I’m not expecting it, but the drop was so successful in the last series that Ime Udoka could drink the proverbial kool aid and mix it in or mix in different coverages such as playing more at the level.
Klay Thompson’s decision-making and midrange jump shooting
The decision-making of Klay Thompson since his return has been inconsistent at best, but that is to be expected after not playing basketball for two full seasons. While the midrange shooting of Klay has mostly been off frustrating decisions (no, a turnaround fadeaway is not a very good shot) I still think the midrange counter will be important.
Boston will likely live with some stuff in the midrange, and a two-dribble pull-up after attacking a closeout is a good enough shot for Klay that he should take it. It can be a nice counter to what Boston does defensively and what they are willing to give up. The importance piece is the knowledge of what a good and bad shot is for him. The balance between elite confidence and shot selection has not been found by Klay yet, but bad shots leading to Boston getting out in transition is not something you can give them.
Pace, pace, pace
This section is going to be a transition into discussing the Celtics offense (get it?). The pace for each of these teams is going to be a massive factor. The Warriors halfcourt offense is very good, but when they get into early offense they are lethal. While the Celtics can manipulate matchups and coverages much easier in the halfcourt, getting the right matchups and playing the right coverages against the Warriors offense is an unbelievably difficult task. With more space and the defense already in motion, the Warriors feast within their early drag screens and wide series. The balance of getting back but also trying to go for calculated offensive rebounds will be very important for the Celtics.
On the other side, transition is massive for the Celtics because their halfcourt offense isn’t very good. Their wings and athletes shine when pushing the ball in transition. Against the Heat, Boston continuously juiced the pace in order to build leads, prevent Miami from running, and actually generate good offense.
I really like the term of “feedback loops” when describing the importance of transition. You can’t score in transition unless you get a stop. Then, if you get out in transition you have a higher likelihood of scoring, thus preventing the opponent from getting out in transition and increasing your chances of another stop, leading to another transition opportunity, etc.
This will be a battle of the feedback loops, which is keyed by how often the Warriors can score against the Celtics defense. Basketball is not split into offensive and defensive sections, rather the two interact with and rely on each other.
Boston attacking the guards
Boston’s offense will primarily work to find a weakness of the opposing team and work to exploit it every time down the floor. In a version not quite as extreme as what the Mavericks did, expect the Celtics to matchup hunt with a lot of stagnation.
The Mavericks went after Kevon Looney and Steph Curry as their two main targets during the series. While they went away from Looney after a stellar Game 1, Curry was in their crosshairs the rest of the series. While that matchup gave the Mavericks offense some fruit, I think Curry might be one of the worst options to attack. He’s simply good defensively for his position. He’s excellent at showing and recovering, as he’s been doing it for years. On the other hand, Poole is a disaster on defense and I’m not sure Klay Thompson is too good either. This will also be a different test for Kevon Looney, especially against the Jaylen Brown matchup.
I expect the Warriors to show two to the ball again to start the series when a guard is involved in the primary action against Tatum or Brown. With Looney involved, I expect the Warriors to initially switch. Attacking Jordan Poole with Jayson Tatum is something I think the Celtics can get stuff out of. Poole is poor with his show and recovers, and the Celtics can generally pop either a shooter or good decision-maker (Derrick White) against his shows. Against a show, someone is always going to be open as two are temporarily on the ball, which is where Tatum’s much improved passing can shine. Tatum can also attack the weaker show to get downhill momentum to make plays as well.
With Jaylen Brown, I’d rather attack Looney. His handle has been of great discussion, but his passing vision isn’t quite there to consistently make reads over the top of the defense. This is where Looney comes in. Looney did a good enough job defending Luka Doncic by forcing him into the help, not biting on any fakes, and walling up once he got into the paint. Jaylen Brown is much more of a quick twitch athlete with much more bend. He would be a major test of Looney’s foot speed.
Another interesting note on the Celtics matchup hunting is what they did against Tyler Herro. Instead of putting him in the primary action consistently, they forced him to be the low man against actions they knew that Miami would send two to the ball. This way, instead of manipulating the primary action they would manipulate the help responsibilities, thus creating advantages closer to the rim. Jordan Poole as the low man could be a struggle, although Draymond Green might be elite enough to figure that out and prevent it from happening.
Prove it series for Looney
How convinced are we that Kevon Looney can stay on the floor in this series? There are two reasons Looney was able to stay on the floor in the last round that hadn’t been the case in the previous series:
1. He didn’t get hurt on switches, allowing him to provide important secondary rim protection
2. He was able to hurt switches offensively through rebounds and unexpected finishing
I’m not sure if this is repeatable against the Celtics. First, I’m not sure if Looney can stay in front of Jaylen Brown and potentially Jayson Tatum. Second, the Celtics don’t have players he can beast on the interior the way the Mavericks had Brunson, Bullock, etc. There is a reason the coaching staff was reluctant to throw Looney into the series against the Grizzlies, and I’m afraid they could resurface again in the Finals.
Are we sure the Celtics role players can shoot?
Something the Celtics stress within their offense is paint touches leading to kickouts and open 3s. In their second round series against the Bucks, Milwaukee dared the role players to shoot the ball. I expect the Warriors to do a lot of the same.
Draymond Green is otherworldly with his real time recognition of a good and bad opponent 3. In milliseconds he can process the difference between an above the break Al Horford 3 off slight movement versus a corner 3 from Jaylen Brown, and he immediately reacts upon the information. Green then has the ground coverage and anticipation to make an actual play. While Green is the engine, the Warriors as a unit generally have impressive knowledge of opponent personnel. While they have the quickness and ground coverage to collapse on drives and closeout to shooters, some of these closeouts may be intentionally short. 3s from Grant Williams, Al Horford, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White could be something the Warriors live with until further notice.
If the Celtics role players aren’t hitting shots, everything falls apart. Then what happens after a paint touch, a contested floater against Draymond Green? How are you even getting to the paint with the gap presence and digs if the Warriors aren’t worried about the player one pass away? The Celtics halfcourt offense eggs being in the basket of their role players knocking down shots is not something I’m 100% comfortable with…
Warriors comfortability in multiple coverages
With previous sections discussing the Warriors handling mismatch hunting and the Celtics shaky shooting from their role players, different coverages could be mixed in incredibly effectively here. Against the Mavericks, every time Luka Doncic found a rhythm the 3-2 zone or box and one was coming out. While these aren't coverages designed to last a full game, they are good enough to mix in and get an opponent out of their stuff.
The Warriors are most comfortable in the 3-2 and box and one. While this will force more shooting from the Celtics role players, they also have better general passing ability than the Mavericks did from their ancillary pieces. Al Horford or Grant Williams project as players that could be effective in the middle of the 3-2. Boston also has more players willing to attack off the dribble in space against the zone looks. While the overall shot quality may be solid for Boston when Golden State mixes in the junk defenses, the reliance on role players hitting shots consistently could make Celtics fans nervous.
Welcome back Gary Payton II!
After Adrian Wojnarowski reported Gary Payton II could return for Game 1 of the Finals, somewhere Jaylen Brown likely dropped something. Payton’s presence may be felt more off the ball in passing and driving lanes than on the ball against either of the two wing initiators. Jaylen Brown’s handle has been a popular topic of discussion, but that is for obvious reasons. Payton is one of the best defensive playmakers from the guard position in the league, and his return could have major ramifications for the Celtics halfcourt offense.
I think we may be a little too worried from the Heat series, although the decision-making at times was definitely questionable. Still, one Gary Payton II can’t be everywhere like the combination of Heat elites. I wonder if the Warriors even experiment with Payton on Marcus Smart to allow him to be more impactful at the nail and pressure the ball 94 feet. No matter where he’s placed, I’m sure the return of Payton will be felt at some point.
Dichotomy of Derrick White’s scoring and his elite defense in this matchup
We’ve talked plenty about Derrick White and his defensive ability, but can he stay on the floor offensively. The last thing the Celtics want is to give either Draymond Green a place to roam or Jordan Poole a place to hide. Down the stretch of the Heat series, White found more success as a screener and general offensive option. The decision-making was more intentional, but how much of his improved impact was from him happening to suddenly make shots? Is that something that can carry over?
I think White can be effective enough as a screener and in the short roll to have enough of an offensive impact, especially with the way Boston plays offensively. His touch on the floater combined with high-level passing has made him playable thus far. While his lack of shooting is concerning, I don’t think it’s enough to completely burn the Celtics advantage when Poole is on the floor.
Can Wiggins repeat defensively?
Against the Mavericks, Andrew Wiggins was elite defensively on Luka Doncic. Obviously no one stops Luka, but he made his job slightly more difficult than usual. I expect Wiggins to get to primary assignment on Jayson Tatum in this series, and the Warriors will be hoping for a repeat performance. Wiggins is well built to defend Tatum. Tatum does not have the best burst, and generally uses his size and frame to create advantages alongside his handle, shooting, and creativity. Wiggins has the combination of length, strength, and quickness that should be able to somewhat contain Tatum.
Cutting off the head of the snake against the Celtics offense could be massive. Tatum is their best advantage creator and most dangerous scoring threat. Slowing him down in the halfcourt with Wiggins could further stagnate the Celtics offense, forcing Brown and Smart into roles of a higher-level creator. I think Wiggins has the defensive ability to slow Tatum down, but what counters does Boston bring? Will the use Tatum more off the ball before initiating sets to force Wiggins to navigate screens? Will Tatum be used in more handoffs and Chicago action? This chess match against an elite defensive wing should be interesting to track.
Draymond Green: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once
I know I used this reference in my last Warriors article, but it perfectly depicts Draymond Green’s defensive impact. I mean, this might be the best block I have ever seen in my life:
Draymond Green makes this defense go. He is one of the smartest players in the league while also being good at everything. He can switch and protect the rim despite being 6’6”. He’s literally all over the floor at all times. The Draymond Green defensive element is something I didn’t consider enough in my previous prediction, but he’s truly special. His off-ball impact against drives from anyone but Tatum will be massive. The skip passes are something the Celtics can be reluctant to throw, which is where Green will consistently hurting their drives as the low man. He looks like an octopus out there, using his length and elite hands to constantly make plays in driving and passing lanes. This weak Celtics halfcourt offense operating against the best defensive player in the league is something I don’t feel great about.
Ultra-small lineups by Game 3, anyone?
I descried how Loney may not be able to stay on the floor and how Robert Williams could have a difficult time in this series, so could we see some small ball for nearly entire games at some point? Will the Warriors go full offense with their new death lineup to start eventually? Will Robert Williams continue to stay on the floor if Grant Williams fits better into some switching and spacing looks? There is some potential for there to be a lot of small lineups in this series, which I am obviously here for.
The official prediction
Never in my life have I watched even close to as much basketball as I have this season. I feel like I’ve learned a ton and am more educated on these teams and what they like to do than I could have imagined a couple years ago. After 4,000 words of writing on very specific nuances and tactics within the series, I’m happy to say this: I have no clue where this is going to go.
I described previously that 7 game series often don’t perfectly show who the better team is and there is a ton of luck and variance involved, so predictions are silly and generally hard to know whether your process was correct. That doesn’t mean predictions aren’t fun and absolutely necessary for any series preview.
So here’s where I’ll go with this. I’m picking the Celtics to win in seven games. I feel terrible about it. This is one of the most fascinating series I can remember. I think the Celtics are superior in terms of talent and versatility. I think their defense is arguably the best of the past decade, and their built as good as any to handle the Warriors offensive system. On the other end, it’s going to be about making enough shots and finding the pressure points. The pathway is there, but it’s far from an absolute. My difficulties picking this series outlines how awesome and fun it will be. A true clash of unique titans, there’s no better way to end a season than seven games of this.
Prediction: Boston Celtics in 7
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