I wanted to do one of these notebooks early in the season to show some interesting things that I am noticing around the league. Some of these will be more focused on the league as a whole, while others will be more focused on individual players or teams.
Is the New Rule Working?
A very popular move that the NBA made this offseason was to try and eliminate players drawing fouls while shooting in a way that doesn't resemble a typical shooting motion. Through the first few days of the season, it appears the NBA has done a rather successful job at doing so:
From the eye-test, it looks like players aren't even trying to draw fouls out at the 3-point line by jumping into opposing players. The numbers show that fouls on 3-pointers have gone down by over 50%, which is certainly what the league and fans wanted.
Certain Team's Math Problem
Shot location is still a major driver of efficiency in the league, and some teams understand that better than others. I wanted to look at the relation between long 2's and offensive rating so far this season:
While it is obviously unfair to try and take something away this early in the season, there is generally a negative correlation between how many long 2's a team takes and their offensive rating. The reasoning is obvious, as we know the best long midrange shooting teams are less efficient in that area than the worst 3-point or rim shooting teams. I'll be monitoring this throughout the season.
Is Jason Kidd Learning?
After a game 1 that wasn't pretty from Jason Kidd, game 2 was better. The big change from my perspective was that Luka just had the ball in his hands more and was running more stuff:
While it doesn't see like much, a one second increase in time of possession per minute adds up over the course of the game. The Mavericks have consistently had a good offense by giving Luka the ball and running high pick and roll in the middle of the floor. While it would be nice in theory to take the ball out of Luka's hands sometimes and give it to another capable creator, that idea just tanks the Mavericks offense in actuality. Kidd seems to have figured this out after a rough game 1.
Which Teams Are Off to Unsustainable Starts?
Shot-making over a limited sample can really skew people's views on performance. We see this every year in the Playoffs, but we also always overreact to it in the beginning of the season. I wanted to look at who is the beneficiary of unsustainable shot-making so far (for reference, last year's max was 4.29%):
The teams that stand out to me are the Suns, Bucks, Hornets, and the teams at the top. The ones at the top are not going to sustain their success, but the ones closer to the bottom may be able to tell us these teams will outperform what we currently think of them. I didn't expect Charlotte to be so low after their hot start, so it's interesting that they are actually probably even better than they have showed from a shot-making perspective.
How Predictive is Week 1?
The short answer is not very. The biggest takeaway from the first week of games should not be the record or the net rating. Rather, it should be about player evaluation and scheme. I'll go back to the Hornets because I think they're fascinating. The takeaway from the beginning of their season should not be that they have a good record, rather it should be that LaMelo Ball looks to have an improved jumper and Miles Bridges looks more comfortable attacking off the dribble. Differences in ratings from week 1 to the end of the year are all over the place:
Commentaires