Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
-The Embiid ripple effects: In the first two games of this series without Embiid, the Sixers felt hopeless. When Embiid came back, he was certainly a presence but wasn’t quite himself. He especially wore down after the first couple of games. The Heat came into game 3 with the gameplan of fronting Embiid and mostly switching. After a couple of games of Embiid hurting them and messing around with the coverages, the Sixers eventually figured out how to front Embiid while not giving bad switches, making him catches less frequent and his scoring more difficult. This had ripple effects throughout the team, especially with Harden. The Sixers offense is very reliant on Joel Embiid’s interior creation and gravity. If a team somewhat takes that away, then the stagnate and uncreative Sixers offense is not difficult to contain. Embiid clearly was not himself and the Heat had a great gameplan, and the ripple effects of that was a bad and ugly offensive performance.
-The forgotten impact of Danny Green: Last year against the Hawks, Danny Green’s injury was not only massive but generally forgotten. Since Green tore his ACL and LCL in a potentially career ending fashion this time I’m sure this injury will be remembered, but the impact of it on the Sixers offense seems underdiscussed. Green is the one player on the Sixers that truly attacks the way Miami helps in the gaps and in the post. The “Danny Green cut” killed Miami in this series, and his general cutting and defensive aptitude was massive in this series.
-Miami’s pathway: I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about how easy Miami’s pathway has been this far. They played a Hawks team that had few counters to their aggressive gameplan on Trae Young and a Sixers team that was missing Embiid for two games just to have him at less then full strength the rest of the way. They have looked good in these series, but they haven’t played a team designed to limit them on either end of the floor. The Celtics are the team that has long been called the best team in the league by me. The Eastern Conference Finals is going to be a massive “prove it” series for my view of the Heat’s Playoff viability (remember them getting swept by the Bucks last year?).
-So… are we comfortable with Gabe Vincent closing games: With Lowry still being ruled out multiple days before each game, I don’t expect to see him for a while. With his absence, I expect Gabe Vincent to be a part of the Heat closing lineup against the Celtics. Are we very comfortable with that? Vincent is a solid player, but I’m usure with how he’ll fare against the size and versatility of the Celtics. Could we see Oladipo close game (I have some decision-making questions there)? Caleb Martin (are we sure he can shoot)? With no Lowry, the Heat don’t have a ton of options. Especially when you consider this next point.
-Is Tyler Herro playable: Throughout the series against the Sixers, Herro’s minutes went further and further down. This culminated in him only playing 16 minutes in Game 6. Tyler Herro is a good basketball player, but his limitations defensively and his general shot diet make him tougher to scale to the highest leverage situations. I have concerns about him against the Celtics. The Heat have plenty of depth, but how much of it is good depth? Do the Heat have a high volume of below average players with few good ones?
Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
-That Giannis guy is pretty good: In my preview for this series, I wrote that I thought Giannis would struggle more than we’ve seen him struggle in the past few years. This Bucks team is designed to slow down someone like Giannis, but he still managed to pull off a truly impressive performance. Giannis averaged 31.6 points per 75 possessions on 52.0% True Shooting in the series. In a vacuum these may not be insane numbers but considering the context of which they occurred they are likely the best anyone in the league could do. Considering his dominance on defense to go along with his bulldozing offense, this was very much an establishment of who the best player in the league is right now.
-If the Celtics supporting cast hits shots…: One of the issues I’ve continued to talk about here is if we’re sure about the Celtics perimeter shooting. All of their players are fine shooters, but what happens when teams start leaving them open? Grant Williams attempted to emphatically answer that question in Game 7, shooting a wild 18 3s and connecting on 7 of them. While I would still mess around with helping off him and Derrick White, this performance cemented his status that of someone you can’t just leave completely open to help in the paint. With the improved playmaking of Tatum and the rim pressure of Brown to go along with the growing shooting confidence from the supporting cast, the Celtics are becoming increasingly difficult to defend.
-The Bucks completely lack bodies: This Bucks roster was flawed from the beginning. Not resigning PJ Tucker to pursue a combination of Bobby Portis and George Hill was a very strange move at the time. That move screamed “we don’t know why we won the Finals last season”. At the end of the day, the Bucks couldn’t find a lineup combination to get to Giannis at the 5. Bobby Portis or Grayson Allen always had to be out there, and both were red meat for the Celtics offense by the end of the series. Even with Middleton in the lineup the Bucks would’ve had the same issues. PJ Tucker was a vital wing for unlocking the small lineups that the Bucks never had. This roster needs serious work in the offseason. This result was much more than missing Middleton.
-The Bucks offensive process: This was one of the more frustrating notes the entire series. It should not bee too difficult to manipulate where Giannis touches the ball and where everyone is standing on the court around him within the flow of the offense. Jevon Carter should never be on pass away on an empty side isolation. If Grant Williams is defending a guard, that guard should not be standing in the dunker spot. The Bucks place guards in the dunker spot to manipulate the help so smaller players help on Giannis, but the Celtics don’t have smaller players to put there. Where were the empty side actions with Jrue/Giannis? Can we get more usage as Giannis as a screener? This is all simple stuff that Mike Budenholzer and company figured out last year.
-Jayson Tatum temperature check: Before the series, there were plenty of “Tatum is a top 5 player” takes floating around out there. I wonder how many of those people still feel the same. As one of those people, I don’t think this series changed my opinion of Tatum too much. While he had his ups and downs, he figured out Milwaukee’s coverages and how to leverage different matchups by the end. He’s learning on the fly how to be a high usage offensive player in this environment and watching him through the process has been impressive. He essentially played three different Bucks players off the floor, with Lopez being the series changer.
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks
-Defensive gameplan mastery: Watching the Mavs defense by the end of this series was an absolute joy. The first half of Game 7 was the masterpiece to top it all off. The Mavericks allowed just 27 points to one of the best offensive teams in the league in the first half of Game 7, which is a ridiculous sentence to type out. The Mavericks did a lot right defensively, but I’ll highlight some of the most impressive stuff. First, the had an expert knowledge of personnel. They played different coverages for different sets. Against Gut Chicago, they were going to hedge. Against any variation of Stack or Fist Exit, they were going to switch. They had different coverages for different players on both sides. They mixed in different coverages at different times. They were in early to help while providing excellent ground coverage. It was insanity watching a team with that level of attention to detail.
-Coaches can learn and staff are important: Something I’ve really learned this year from two coaches in particular (Jason Kidd and J.B. Bickerstaff) is this: coaches and improve and situation is really important, just like it is for players. I’ve also learned that the coach is not a 1-man band. Coaching staffs are vital to the success of the coach. The second point is a direct shoutout to Sean Sweeney, who is responsible for a lot of the Mavericks defense. Bigger picture, I think Jason Kidd is very good. Both of his series thus far have been masterful against two of the coaches I consider to be top 5-10 in the league. I think he’s outcoached both of them.
-What is the best coverage for Luka: I don’t know what to do against Luka Doncic. I think the best possible coverage is to have 5 great defensive wings (literally only the Clippers have this) and just switch. Anything else he can obliterate with his passing, size, and isolation scoring combination. Doncic might already be the best offensive player in the league (I think he’s right behind Jokic). He’s just impossible to gameplan for.
-Phoenix needs a “scheme breaker”: At some point I’ll write about my idea of the “scheme breaker”: the explosive guard that can get relentless paint touches against the best defenses in the league. Think about Ja Morant, Jordan Poole, and Tyrese Maxey as archetypes for this. The Suns lack that one player that can catch the ball and destroy a slanted defense. They have sacrificed that explosiveness for shooting and players that operate better within their system. Someone that can shift a defense to a greater extent off the dribble than Chris Paul and Devin Booker can (Cam Payne at times last year) would be big for making the Suns offense translate better to a more focused Playoff opponent.
-It’s tough to beat math: The Suns rarely shoot 3s and rarely shoot shots at the rim. They are such a prolific midrange shooting team that they still had elite offensive numbers in the regular season. Part of this is because in the regular season, the lack of team specific gameplans allows for the Suns to feast on shots most defenses are daring them to shoot. In the Playoffs, the conventional coverages go away and all those midrange shots become slightly more contested. Without the counter of getting to the rim more often, it just becomes tough to live on that diet.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
-Warriors offensive process: For being as smart as a team as the Warriors are, there are truly head scratching decisions made often. They have strange turnovers and take some horrendous shots. This is a team philosophy based off player empowerment, but I’m not sure if this unit is experienced enough together to successfully pull that off in a Playoff setting. It’s forgotten how much time Klay, Curry, and Draymond have missed. This team just hasn’t played together much as a full group, and this is likely the worst offensive system in the league for that to be the case.
-How do we feel about the “New Death Lineup”: Not so deadly, huh? Who could’ve known? With the defensive limitations of the new death lineup combined with the offensive decision-making, the new death lineup has gone from the greatest thing since sliced bread to almost unusable in a Playoff setting. Against the mavericks, the death lineup might have to make a comeback if the Warriors want to go full blown offense. They won’t stop Luka no matter what the combination is, and at least this smaller look gives them more recovery speed on the back line of their defense. It is also best equipped to attack to Mavericks best lineups, which don’t necessarily featured the most laterally agile players.
-Warriors injuries: Is Gary Payton II the best option to guard Luka Doncic? I still think he’s third behind Wiggins and Draymond, but he’s a necessary body to have in this series that may not be available. The Andre Iguodala injury could also loom large here. Kevon Looney against the Mavericks could get ugly. Match him up against Powell and Luka will hunt him. Match him up when Luka isn’t on the floor and he will 5-out him to death. Just as a backup center that isn’t Kuminga, Iguodala is important.
-Curry’s advantage creation: A long, long time ago, players that weren’t hyper-elite defensive guards quivered in fear about the possibility of getting matched up onto Steph Curry. I don’t think that’s the case anymore. Curry just doesn’t have the same level of quickness he once had, which is to be expected out of a 34.1-year-old man. The challenge here is his limited shot creation forces more onto the plate of Poole, Klay, and “system buckets”. Curry’s former advantage creation also limited the creativity of the coverages from opponents. The Mavs gameplan in the next series will be fascinating.
-So close yet so far: The Grizzlies are a very good team and they are ahead of schedule. The question now becomes: what next? They just don’t have the core of a championship team yet in my opinion. They are a piece or two away from really getting there. They need a more versatile center than Steven Adams and they need a wing that can make decisions better than Dillion Brooks. The Ja/Bane/JJJ trio combined with some of the depth is a good starting point, but at some point consolidation is needed. The focus for Memphis should now shift from thinking about maximizing regular season wins to maximizing playoff wins.
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