People are always looking for value in the NBA draft. The draft is already enough of a crapshoot, but it gets especially difficult to find diamonds in the rough outside of the top 5-10. For people like myself who may not work in an NBA front office and have the tools they have, we have to rely more on numbers to make some evaluations. A great site I have found for this is Barttorvik. This site not only has a ton of numbers for current and past College basketball players, but it also allows you to create historical precedents and compare current players to the statistical precedents you set. In this article, I am going to use Barttorvik to explore some prospects who I think are under or overvalued by mainstream draft boards (ESPN).
Kessler Edwards
Edwards is an interesting prospect as someone who is 6'8"-9", has good movement skills, is an elite off ball defender, and can shoot. It feels like a lot of people are a little hung up on his shooting right now, and I am not sure why. Last season, Edwards shot 38.3% on 115 3-point attempts, and shot 88.7% from the line on 97 attempts. The mechanics in the lower body are a little funky, but he has good balance on the shot, and it looks good at the top. Here are drafted players from the last 10 seasons that are 6'8" or taller and have a similar single season shooting profile:
shooter overseas on solid volume. The different between Edwards and the rest of these guys is that he is very good on the defensive side of the ball. While I will say that these players are probably better shooters than Edwards, their games are not as well rounded. Also, all of these guys have been good shooters. Right now, ESPN has Edwards at 49 on their board...
Bennedict Mathurin
Mathurin is a lesser-known Canadian prospect who played as a freshman at Arizona last season. He has good size and a plus wingspan, is a good athlete, and can shoot the ball. He is also a young freshman. Last season, Mathurin shot 41.8% on 3's on 91 attempts and 84.6% from the line on 78 attempts. Here are the players from last college season to shoot similarly while being at least 6'7":
All of these players are considered really good shooters besides Planutis (who I don't know anything about) and Mathurin. When you factor in Mathurin's age, athleticism, and skill/shooting development over the past couple of years, the profile feels like a potential first-round guy. ESPN has Mathurin at 58 right now...
Nah'Shon Hyland
Bones Hyland is a combo guard out of VCU who put on a show every time you watched him last season. He had the ultimate green light, as he was really the only player on VCU to be able to create consistent offense. What stands out immediately with Bones is the shot creation, creativity, and ability to shoot it off the dribble. Bones shot 13.9 3's per 100 possessions and made 37.1% of those looks. He also made 86.2% of his free throws. Here are the players that have shot a similar volume of three's while shooting a similar percentage at the line in the past 10 years:
Obviously, we know about Trae Young and Buddy Hield. Hunter hasn't made the league, but he has been a high-volume shooter wherever he has gone. The same can be said for Tyler Harvey. The point to be made here is that the volume we saw from Bones this past season was ridiculous. The percentage wasn't high level, but to me that is more because of the difficulty of attempts. I also love the Bones Hyland off ball defense stuff. I think it's fair to have weight and frame concerns, as well as concerns of how well he will hold up against more advanced athletes. However, I don't see how Bones can be outside of anyone's top 60. Right now, ESPN has him at 68...
Chris Duarte
Duarte is super old. He is going to be older than 24 on draft night. That's what makes the value proposition of drafting someone like him so tough. However, he is undeniably really good. He is a good shooter, and a good off ball defender. He somewhat fits the 3 and D mold for a wing that is so value in the NBA. Here are the players from this past season and the past 10 seasons with wing size, shooting similar volume and percentage to Duarte while also having similar steal and block rates:
It's an interesting list. We have some draft steals in here, on clear bust, and some unknowns. However, for the most part the guys that have played a few years have become rotation players. Despite the age from Duarte, the production just matches exactly what the NBA is looking for. ESPN has him at 25, which may be a little too low...
Jaden Springer
Springer is an interesting prospect as a young Freshman who has two-way impact. He is very strong for someone of his age and height, which has allowed him to become a good defender at Tennessee. His impact is pretty interesting on both ends of the floor. He has a block rate of 2.2 and steal rate of 2.7, which is really impressive for a Freshman guard. He is also a solid playmaker, with an assist rate of 24.1. Here are the drafted players from the past 10 years with similar freshman numbers:
Not too bad of a list. I loved Whitehead and Thornwell coming out, but obviously they never made it. The other three players have turned themselves into at least very solid role players in the league. I would be shocked if Springer had Marcus Smart level of impact on the defensive side of the floor, but if he became similar to De'Anthony Melton that would be a very good outcome. I think Springer is certainly a lottery talent, yet ESPN has him at 28...
Derrick Alston Jr.
Alston is an athletic forward out of Boise State. What makes him interesting is that he can really shoot the ball at 6'9". Last year, he shot 38.7% while shooting over 10 3's per 100 possessions. He also shot an impressive 85.5% at the free throw line. Here are drafted players from the past 10 years who are at least 6'8" and have a similar shooting profile:
Not many dudes. Alston has plenty of concerns about feel and defense, which is justified, but to be that big and athletic with that shooting ability is really rare. It is at least worthy of a second-round pick in my opinion. Right now, ESPN has Alston at 99...
Taevion Kinsey/Isaiah Miller
This one is more for fun, but dunks can be an interesting way to measure out athleticism in a prospect. Both Kinsey and Miller are interesting because of their height and number of dunks. Kinsey is 6'5" and has 46 dunks and Miller is 6'0" and has 32 dunks(!). This is impressive for two guys that height, and it is rarely seen out of prospects of their size. Here are prospects 6'5" and under who have had 30 or more dunks:
I will point out; I don't think Miller has a shot at getting drafted and Kinsey would've been a fringe guy this year. Also, playing in much weaker conferences will obviously give them more opportunities to sky to the rim. However, these guys are fun, and with Kinsey going back to school he could be an intriguing 2022 draft prospect.
Cam Thomas
I know this is a more fun and positive article, but there is one prospect I feel obligated to talk about here. Cam Thomas can score the ball, but everything else with him right now is bad. I was curious about his passing numbers and how they compare to historical prospects. Thomas has an insanely low assist rate of 8.3. For someone of guard size (6'4"), that's insane. Here are guard sized prospects of the past 10 season with an assist rate below 9:
By the way, none of these players were drafted in the year that is shown above. When Thomas gets selected, he will have the lowest assist rate of any guard sized player over the past 20 drafts, which is as far back as the data goes. ESPN has Thomas at 16...
Freshman
Pre-drafting is a concept I've thought a lot about, but I didn't want to write an article about it because PDWebb did a much better job than I could have of doing the same. The basic idea is that all the time there are prospects who the mainstream draft media wants to go back to school to improve their stock, and then they can become first rounders instead of second rounders. However, why would teams allow this to happen? Why wouldn't they just guarantee these players a year early, then get first round value out of a second-round pick. Here are some players that unnecessarily went back to school this year who should've been drafted last year: James Bouknight, Kessler Edwards, Terrence Shannon Jr., Nah'Shon Hyland, David Johnson, Franz Wagner... The list goes on and on. Anyways, I wanted to explore some players that I think teams should 100% give a second-round guarantee to:
I pulled the top 35 Freshman from last season in terms of BPM that played at least 25% of team’s minutes. There are some players here who may not go to the draft that I would give a guarantee to in the 25-40 range: Jabari Walker, Bennedict Mathurin, Jaden Ivey, Kadary Richmond, JT Thor, Colby Jones. I think all of these players have upside to be fringe lottery picks next season, and I would not want to let that talent go to another team. Here are some other players I might guarantee later in the draft: Keegan Murray, Kerwin Walton, Justin Powell, Jae'Lyn Withers, Jalen Bridges, Jalen Wilson, Efe Abogidi, ad Azoulas Tubelis. I think this is a major draft inefficiency right now, and teams can get a ton of value if they start exploring it.
Comments