The playoffs are quickly approaching, and I felt like it was time to write a piece about the true contenders. I feel like a lot of the major issues have been talked about ad nauseum, so I wanted to talk about lesser talked about strengths and weaknesses that have been under talked about. A lot of these may feel like smaller scale topics, but I do feel each one of them can have a major impact a team's ability to win certain playoff matchups. I defined the term "contender" fairly loosely here, as there may or may not be a couple of teams I felt I had to mention. In the case of the Nuggets, I just wanted to talk about Jokic.
Milwaukee Bucks
Strength: Pick and roll versatility
The way the Bucks roster is constructed this season, I think they will have more easy ways to attack an opponent’s playoff defense. Part of this is because now they have a legitimate operator in ball screens in Jrue Holiday. There is a significant difference if you have Jrue Holiday running pick and roll with Giannis versus Eric Bledsoe. Holiday is just more dynamic as a shooter off the dribble and passer. While Bledsoe really only plays at one speed going downhill, Holiday uses clever manipulation combined with his strength to create advantages. We've also seen more inverted looks with Giannis as the ball handler and dynamic shooters or scorers setting the screen. The Bucks ability to utilize ball screens at a higher quantity and quality than last season should help their playoff offense, which became stagnant at times last season.
Weakness: P.J. Tucker's offensive variability
You never want to give the opposing team an out defensively. While I think the acquisition of Tucker was an excellent move for the Bucks because it opens up Giannis at center lineups, I still have a lot of questions about Tucker's offensive impact. Tucker is famous for shooting the corner three, but he has consistently hit the shot at around the 60th percentile for his position. That's not necessarily too much of a value add. I'm worried that opposing teams in the playoffs will be able to hide their worst defender on Tucker without huge implications. Him being such a stagnant player on that end will allow for a resting period on defense for really good players. Where the Bucks could attack is by using Tucker in the deep weakside corner and forcing his man into helping the helper situations. The Bucks this season have put an athletic guard in the dunkers spot a lot, but a late rotation from a resting player would still lead to a layup if the drop-down pass is on point. I will be watching to see if teams that have weaker defenders (Kyrie Irving, Trae Young, Bradley Beal, etc.) try to take advantage of Tucker.
Brooklyn Nets
Strength: Options
Everyone talks about the stars at the top of the lineup for this team, but the Nets have done a great job of working along the margins to find pluggable talent across multiple positions. Three players who perfectly fit this mold to me are Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Nic Claxton. Brown is the one perimeter defender on this team who is going to be tasked with defending the opposing team’s biggest perimeter threat. On offense, Nash has done a brilliant job of using him as a screener and rim runner to provide offensive value out of a non-shooting guard. With Green and Claxton, the Nets can go ultra-switchable. Claxton move his feet incredibly well for someone of his size, and the defensive footwork on the perimeter is advanced for someone of his age and experience level. If the Nets want a little more spacing or passing, they can throw out Blake Griffin. If they want more pick and roll creation on a bench unit, they can insert Mike James. If they need someone to guard the opposing teams best post player, they have DeAndre Jordan potentially waiting in the wings. There are so many look this team can give you because of the depth and versatility of the roster.
Weakness: Helping the helper
Switching works out really well when you have the right personnel. With switching systems, you either need really good on ball switch guys, incredible rotations, or a little bit of both. I think the Nets lack of really good on ball players could expose the lack of rotational awareness. Remember the inverted screens I was talking about earlier with the Bucks? Imagine this scenario: the Bucks set an inverted screen for Giannis, Joe Harris switches onto him and gets blown by, Harden steps up as the helper who was guarding the dunkers spot, and then you are relying on Kyrie Irving to rotate to the dunkers spot before the pass gets there? Does anyone trust that will happen on a consistent basis? Watching the Nets, I think the primary rotations are there. However, I think what happens after that if the ball gets moving a little can be questionable. Will Kyrie Irving and James Harden be giving second efforts defensively? I'm going to be excited to see what happens here.
Philadelphia 76ers
Strength: Recovery
This team’s defense is really good, so I wanted to focus on one particular aspect of it: the recovery. Yeah, every defense is going to make mistakes all the time. They are constantly playing at a disadvantage. However, the elite teams recover really well when they make a mistake (think last year’s Raptors). I don't know if the Sixers are as well coached as that Raptors group, but the personnel here is ridiculous. Thybulle and Simmons flying around the perimeter is scary to think about. They also have Danny Green, who is a really good instinctual defender. If you pass it around the perimeter and somehow find a lane to the paint, arguably the best rim intimidator in basketball is standing there waiting for you. Usually, you really want to avoid full rotations if you're a defensive group. That's still true for the Sixers, but they thrive in this area.
Weakness: Constriction of the whistle
Joel Embiid gets a ton of fouls drawn... during the regular season. I have no idea how this is going to hold up in the postseason. There have been instances when players who rely on a lot of dumb fouls don't get calls anymore in the payoffs (James Harden) and there are instances when they do still get the calls (Jimmy Butler). We'll see with Embiid. I think that some of his isolation post game will be a little less effective anyways with teams having extended periods of time to scheme for it, but if he's still drawing insane foul rates then it won't really matter. However, I am a little worried about how this Sixers offense if Joel Embiid starts receiving significantly fewer foul calls.
Utah Jazz
Strength: Forcing and attacking long closeouts
Quin Snyder has an exceptional understanding on how to space the floor at all times. He initiates actions high and keeps some of his best shooters beyond the three-point line to maximize spacing. The Jazz are an excellent team in terms of ball movement as the defense is rotating, but one aspect I really like is that the perimeter players are threats to attack a closeout. The spacing creates the really long closeouts, and the players are adept at how to attack them. Mitchell and Clarkson use their quickness, Ingles, Bogdanovic, and Conley use their footwork and manipulation, and O'Neale generally uses the fact it's a poor defender closing out to him. Whichever way each player gets it done, attacking hard closeouts puts a lot of pressure on rotations, especially when you have to sink and fill against Gobert and elite shooting. The Jazz are excellent at hunting perimeter looks and easy layups once they create scrambles, and I'll be watching for how defenses handle this.
Weakness: Speed
Remember one second ago when I said the Jazz are great at creating and attacking long closeouts? I don't think their defense has the speed to fly around against an offense like their own. While I think Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanovic are very intuitive defenders, I don't think they are particularly fast accelerating in a straight line. Against the best teams or players in the world, that can be the difference between 3 feet and five feet of space on the shot, which is massive. Especially built up over the course of an entire game. While the Jazz have been able to avoid this issue for the most part because of how insane Gobert is defensively, but if he is asked out further on the floor in pick and roll coverage there could be issues. In that situation, all of a sudden the low man has to tag and recover, leading to a fairly long closeout. There are certain teams who I think could really exploit this weakness.
Phoenix Suns
Strength: Post Defense
There are really two teams in the West where this strength will bear a lot of weight, but I think it has gone under the radar a bit. First of all, I think DeAndre Ayton is a really good individual defender in the post. He has long arms, a strong frame, and knows how to use his gifts to contest without fouling. I also like Jae Crowder and Chris Paul as post defenders. Those players have incredible lower body strength, allowing them to at least push their man away from the block, making the entry pass and subsequent post touch much more difficult. I've even seen players like Mikal Bridges do a very good job at fronting the post to prevent the mismatch. If the Suns get a couple of particular matchups, this is something I'll be closely watching.
Weakness: Defending pull up shooters
I think DeAndre Ayton has taken a real step forward in terms of his defense this season, but the playoffs are completely different from the regular season. I'm concerned about how DeAndre Ayton defends out on the perimeter right now. I'm not saying he won't eventually get there, but whenever I watch come to touch against pull up shooters in the pick and roll it feels like a lot of mistakes are made. He often doesn't come high enough or will get expose with poor footwork. I just feel like he can be attacked. I'm also worried about the effects that has on the backline of the defense if it's not Bridges and Crowder. Paul is great defensively, but does he have the size to step in and really blow up an action at the charge circle? I am worried about Ayton getting played off the floor (and honestly, maybe that wouldn't be so bad. I love the idea of a Paul/Booker/Johnson/Bridges/Crowder small ball alignment.).
Los Angeles Lakers
Strength: Frank Vogel's preparation and execution
I don't know why, but I still feel like no one talks about how exceptional of a defensive coach Frank Vogel is. Last year, he absolutely unleashed Anthony Davis into a variety of different coverage and schemes, perfectly designed for the opponent the Lakers were playing. We're playing Damian Lillard who can shoot from 30 feet? No problem, we'll have Anthony Davis come up the level of the screen and demolish the action every time. The Rockets are playing super spaced-out small ball? No problem, we'll have Davis player free safety while guarding this non-shooter named Russell Westbrook. We need someone to guard the best and most dynamic offensive center on earth? Not to worry, we have AD. Jimmy Butler is playing out of his mind? We'll just throw AD on him and go under every ball screen. Vogel's propensity to try stuff is really high, and his intuition of what will and won't work is great. A lot of that last section talked about AD, but none of those defensive schemes work if the back line wasn't perfectly on a string and consistently making the requisite efforts. Yes, having LeBron James helps, but to even get the consistent buy in from him was something a coach hasn't done in a while. I hope Vogel gets the recognition he deserves in not too much time.
Weakness: Secondary creation
I had this concern last season, and it was never much of an issue. There are two reasons why I think that was: Anthony Davis' shot making and Rajon Rondo's emergence. Anthony Davis was out of his mind last playoffs in terms of making mid-range jump shots, and the sustainability of that doesn't matter when you only need 16 wins. Rondo was atrocious in the regular season, but all of a sudden became a high-level role player in the playoffs. I don't expect either of those factors to continue. Here are my questions with this offense: what happens when LeBron gets blitzed? What happens when the weakside pulls over by two extra steps? What happens when LeBron throws a crosscourt dart to Schroder, Kuzma, Caruso, Caldwell-Pope, Horton-Tucker, or McLemore? How many of those players should be trusted to make the right situational decision? Again, maybe LeBron and Anthony Davis are just so unbelievable that all those players have to do is make a wide-open shot. However, LeBron is coming off an injury and if a team can come up with an excellent scheme, I think the Lakers offense could run into trouble.
Los Angeles Clippers
Strength: Increased variability of attack
Last season, the Clippers didn't have a ton of offensive looks to go to if they were struggling. That led to a lot of stretches of almost unwatchable offense, which also led to crazy runs by opposing teams. This season, the Clippers have added a little bit more variability to how they score the ball. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both running more pick and rolls this season. There is also just a lot less standing around and a lot more player movement offensively. That has created a higher rate of shots and makes from deep. There is also just smarter player alignment in general with how the Clippers are running their sets. Also, remember that Rondo dude I mentioned earlier? With the Lakers, he allowed LeBron and AD to do execute a lot more actions off the ball. I expect the same with Kawhi and Paul George, only with more spacing around them. If the Clippers can get around the issues that caused a lot of standing around in last year's playoffs, I think that would be a massive success.
Weakness: Degree of difficulty
The Clippers take and make a lot of really tough shots. That's generally a good thing, especially come playoff time. My issue is that they don't really get a ton of easy looks. They don't get to the rim very often, they don't score a ton off cuts, and they rarely get to the free throw line. Tougher shots generally have a higher variability, and a higher variability of shots leads to a higher variability of outcomes. That's not always a great bet to make. Most of the other best offenses in the league are getting it done with elite shot making and some aspect of getting easy looks outside of open threes. I'm worried that if shots aren't falling in a couple of games for the Clippers, all of a sudden their offense could be much less effective.
Denver Nuggets
Strength: Positive offensive impact threshold
Jokic is an absolute passing savant. The ability to run an offense through your center opens up a world of possibilities for you team, and Michael Malone has done a great job taking advantage of that. Jokic is used a lot in delay, elbow, and the mid post, giving him room to operate as a scorer while also sending timely cutters the defense has to account for. Jokic's vision and manipulation reeks absolute havoc for opposing defenses. A lot of times a solid defensive player can't get on the floor because of offensive struggles, but with Jokic this threshold is much lower. Basically, all you need to be able to do is run in a straight line towards the rim and be capable of making a layup to play with Nikola Jokic offensively. There are so many players and lineup constructions that would never work with any other center in the league besides Jokic.
Weakness: Paul Millsap's age
The downside of Nikola Jokic is how you have to use him defensively. He's not enough of a rim protector to drop and he can’t move well enough to switch. The Nuggets like to bring him out further onto the floor, but that puts a lot of pressure on that back line defender. In the past, that guy has been Paul Millsap. Millsap's defensive IQ, lateral and backwards movement ability, and hands were exceptional in the past. Millsap of four years ago would have been the perfect partner for Jokic in the frontcourt to attempt to build a defense. He's just not that level of player anymore.
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