Project: Points per Shot vs. Shot Type
- Bryce Haase
- Jan 22, 2021
- 3 min read
This project is continuing to build off of the shot data I have been using for my last couple of projects. For this project, I wanted to look at which types of shots are most and least effective. Per the data I used, there are 53 different shot types. Each shot type is used in different situations, and the level of difficulty can greatly vary based on what type of shot is used. I wanted to do this to build off of my last findings, and to find what types of shots are most effective from different areas.
The code for this project can be found at this link:
The data created from the code:
When looking at this data, it mirrors a lesson I have learned from my past couple of projects: don't shoot shots between 5-22 feet. Shots with an average distance from that range are far less efficient. The drop for when a shot relatively close to the rim become a bad shot is a lot closer than you might think. For most of the data, the average shot distance is relatively very close to the rim. That's because teams are smart enough to know those are the best shots in the game. A majority of shots that are considered layups or dunks are very high efficiency looks. A lot of the more efficient shot types are the ones that involve cutting. I think part of this is because usually to get the ball on a cut you have to be open, but this data affirms the ideal that cutting and players that know how to move without the ball are vital to boosting your offense's ceiling. This is also why floor spacing is so important in today's NBA, as you won't be able to get looks off cutters if the opposing center is sagging in the lane.
Moving a little further out, from this data we can tell that hook shots are some of the least efficient shot types an offense can get. This is because generally a hook shot will come out of a post-up, which is one of the least efficient plays an offense can run. Hook shots are tough to make on a consistent basis, and they should generally not be taken. Another shot that is relatively inefficient are floaters. I think that the reason that from about 3-4 feet and out shooting percentages fall off a cliff is because a lot of those shots are from out of the post or floaters. Floaters have become a popular shot in the NBA in the past decade because it is a good way to get a shot off over a bigger defender. The nature of the shot just causes it to be inefficient. You aren't going to shoot a floater unless a defender is contesting your shot, and that combined with the increased angle of a typical floater makes it a tough shot to make on a consistent basis. I think NBA offenses now are too willing to take a floater. Maybe taking another dribble into the defender and drawing contact is a better look. Also, players should look to take another dribble or step in that situation and see if they have a drop-down pass or a kick out available. I think that eliminating post ups (unless there is an egregious crossmatch) and floaters will be the next step in the analytics driven NBA.
The way this data was presented makes it hard to differentiate the value of a three-point shot. This is because the types of shots that can be taken from 3-point range can also be taken from mid-range. These can be jump shots, pull-up jump shots, step back jump shots, etc. However, if these shots can be taken from either two or three point range, why not elect to shoot from 3? The problem with this idea is generally player skill level, as a lot of players can't just decide to start taking step backs from 6-8 feet further out. This makes sense, but I would advise players to be smarter about what types of shots they take in the mid-range. If an average shot is worth about 1.04 points, then your goal from mid-range should be to shoot a shot you can make about 52% of the time (way higher than league average from mid-range). Shot selection is incredibly important to how good an offense is, but shot selection is not only where you shoot but what type of shot you take. Encouraging players to take the right types of shots from the right ranges on the floor can have a big impact on offensive efficiency.
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