The 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs are under way, and I thought it would be fun to use some analytics to talk about some things I am noticing. I'll continue to update this notebook throughout the playoffs with different projects looking at some NBA playoff stuff:
All the code for the projects below can be found here:
Tyronn Lue and the Clippers Figured it Out
Posted: 6/19
While it may take Tyronn Lue an extra game to figure out how to play, once he gets to game 3 he does a great job. The Clippers adjusted in this series very well throughout, and by the nd they were playing in a way that the Jazz did not have an answer for. Here are their rotations throughout the series:
The Clippers are the exact team that the Jazz do not want to face. On every pick and roll, they can play any coverage. The did a lot of switching, but they also played flat, did shows, blitzed, late doubled, iced, or any other coverage you can think of besides dropping. That kind of versatility is the exact reason why I think this team is so good. While Doc Rivers was reluctant to dip his toe into that last season, Lue is now going all in with it. The Clippers rotations on defense have been great. Their technique on switches is much better. There are executing their game plan exceptionally well. On offense, they were picking apart where the Jazz were weakest. Attack the poor point of attack defenders, force Gobert to make a decision and then play from there. If Gobert doesn't come help it's layups at the rim all day. If h does, it's a kick out into an immediate rotation or an open shot:
As the series went on, the Clippers realized that the Jazz did not have the personnel to defend them one on one. Running a five out style with good ball movement, shooting and players that can get two feet in the paint is going to be the name of the game in not too long. The Clippers look like they're playing a different sport at times with how their roster is constructed. Clippers vs. Suns will be a very exciting battle between two divergently different schemes, coaches, and personnel.
I don't know exactly how to quantify this in a graph, but this was not Gobert's fault at all. I've seen a lot of ridiculous arguments about how Gobert doesn't deserve defensive player of the year because of this and that he is not good defensively. To that I say watch the games or go do some learning about basketball schemes. Gobert was put on the Clippers worst perimeter shooter at all times so he could help. The point of attack defense was very poor, so he was constantly helping. The Jazz were willing to make the bet that the Clipers most reluctant shooter was not going to kill them. In game 6, Terance Mann happened to shoot 7/10 on 3's, all of which were uncontested. This was not Gobert's fault. The reason he got so many looks is because Gobert was helping on the penetration and there was no rotation or stunt to the corner. The Jazz were willing to give up that shot, but they never adjusted. That's not on Gobert. There's no chance that he could make a 25 foot closeout to a corner shooter after preventing the layup. Also, YOU ALWAYS PREVENT THE LAYUP AND WORRY ABOUT THE 3 LATER! If Gobert just stayed attached to shooters on the perimeter, the Clippers would've been walking into layups all night. We can have an actual discussion about the Jazz defensive scheme and Rudy Gobert's scalability with his archetype, but that defensive performance was not his fault. It was mostly on the point of attack defense being really bad.
The Ben Simmons Disappearing Act
Posted: 6/19
If you've been watching this Sixers series, you may have noticed that Ben Simmons has not been very effective in the fourth quarter of these games at all. To show this, I looked at his shots that are self created by quarter:
Yes, you read that correctly. Ben Simmons has created a grand total of zero shots for himself in the fourth quarter this entire series. He has only shot the ball 3 total times in the 4th quarter this series. I expected there to be a decline, but that is pretty unbelievable. Part of the reason he doesn't produce offensively i that he is not on the floor. The Hawks have been going to hack-a-Simmons a lot, and if he isn't hitting his free throws Rivers like to just sub him out of the game. A lot of times he just doesn't even have the ball in his hands because is is not a very good shot creator in the half court. He is better used as someone in the dunkers spot or running hand off actions. It's still really weird that the number is at 0 in six games. He hasn't gotten one opportunity in transition or one post touch against a mismatch? It's strange, but it's also a good job from Philly to know what their best offense is. Simmons self creating shots is not necessarily something you want late in games. Even last night, Simmons was taken out of the game because of lack of offensive juice combined with an inability to handle Trae Young anyways. The discussion around the offense of Simmons is interesting. While a reliable jumper would obviously help, he should be much better in other ways such as cutting and screening to be a more effective player. His minutes will be interesting to monitor in game 7.
Giannis Shot Selection
Posted: 6/18
A major talking point in the Bucks series so far has been the shot selection of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Far too often, it feels like he doesn't understand himself as a player and attempts shots that he should not be taking. I wanted to see how much his shot selection has actually been impacting his efficiency this series:
Obviously, there is going to be a lot of variance when we are only looking at samples of about 25 shots, but there is not a crazy relation between his shot distance and his effective field goal percentage. I think we are falling a little too far into the boat of remembering the egregious shots and forgetting the rest of the positive results. Yes, I am just as frustrated when Giannis shoots a 3 as anyone, but Giannis' inefficiencies have been more because of poor performance at the free throw line than his shooting. Giannis is at a 58.5 eFG% during the series, which is only about 1.5% below his season average. His True Shooting percentage is at 57.2%, which is about 6% below his regular season average.
While I think we are blowing Giannis' offensive performance so far a little out of proportion, it is still very frustrating because there is low hanging fruit. He should not be taking three's unless the clock is running down. Same can be said for fadeaways and almost any shot outside of the paint. He also shouldn't be initiating offense as much as he does. Using him even more as a screener, cutter, and at the dunkers spot will continue to open up avenues for this offense to attack. While Giannis hasn't been dominant, by no stretch of the imagination has he been bad. Game 7 is absolutely massive for Giannis, as the Bucks could potentially be the favorite to win the NBA championship with a win on Saturday.
The Bucks Rotation
Posted: 6/18
Last night, in a very non-Budenholzer move, Mike Budenholzer played his starters a ton of minutes. If it weren't for 4 minutes of garbage time at the end, his three stars would've played almost the entire game:
Budenholzer is going to lose his jo if the Bucks lose in this series. From every report that has come out all season, that is very apparent. There is no way he is going to make the same mistake of not playing his best players enough minutes. When evaluating coaches, the easiest thing to look at is the rotations. If fans look at the box score after a loss and see Giannis played 35 minutes, there are going to be riots in the streets of Milwaukee. Budenholzer effectively cut the rotation to six players yesterday while giving Forbes and Thanasis some spot minutes. I'd expect that is how he is going to handle the rotations in Game 7, the most important game of his career.
The Jazz Offense
Posted: 6/17
In the regular season, the Jazz had the 3rd best offensive rating in the league at 118.8. In the five playoff games against the Clippers, their offensive rating has been 117.6. Not bad, but it has been trending downward over their last three losses. The issue is that heir shot making has been incredible, but they still aren't getting their same offensive results. Every single time Quin Snyder gets interviewed this series, it seems like he says the same thing. He talks about how the Clippers are getting them out of their rhythm and the ball isn't moving as much:
The graph above shows passing stats from the regular season to the post season. As expected, every team sees a decrease in the playoffs, but the Jazz and the much maligned Bucks stand out. The Clippers switching is really getting the Jazz out of a lot of their favorite sets. A lot of their offense is predicated on interesting actions into a high ball screen with Gobert, followed by the Jazz killing the other team because of Gobert's role gravity and the threat of a pull up shot. One issue, which I have talked about already, is the Conley injury. He is the team's best playmaker in the pick and roll and he can shoot off the dribble. The bigger issue is that the switching neutralizes advantages at the point of attack. Before, Mitchell could punish this with his quickness, but with the random doubles this is no longer happening. Gobert is being taken out by timely tags and sound switches. The rest of the players just aren't great shot creators in a one on one situation. The Jazz are in a tough spot because of the matchup, but they still need to get back to their more egalitarian principles. Mitchell has gotten too shot hungry, and the ball just isn't popping around the perimeter the way it should be. If you don't have one of the 3 or 4 best creators in the league, you cant rely on iso-ball for the bulk of your offense. The Jazz need to get back to what works.
Another Great Trae Young Game
Posted: 6/17
Trae Young had another spectacular game last night, but the way he did it was a little different than we have seen before. Young scored 39 points on 62.18% True Shooting, but was only 10/23 from the field and 2/6 from the line. Obviously, to have such a good True Shooting percentage with those numbers you needed to get to the line a lot:
Trae Young shot 19 free throws last night and made 17 of them. That gave him a sky high free throw rate. Young is a master at manipulating defensive player movement patterns into foul calls. A lot of fans don't like that he does it, but why wouldn't he do something that maximizes efficiency within the rules of the sport? For a lot of the game, it looked like Trae was mostly figured out. The passing angles weren't quite there, Embiid was masterful in pick and roll coverage, and Young just couldn't quite generate good looks for himself. Here was his creation for the game:
As you can see, his passing numbers were at their lowest of the series. He did create a lot of shots, but he did not do so very efficiently. For small guards, having the ability to draw fouls is vital for success. It will keep bigger defenders more hesitant in how they guard you, which will then give you more angles for creation. Young did not have the best shooting game in the world, but what he did with foul drawing was huge in this game.
Is Embiid Getting Tired?
Posted: 6/17
During another collapse in the 2nd half from the 76ers, Embiid was far less effective. His movement on the defensive side of the ball seemed to be lowered, and his paint dominance was not quite the same. I wanted to see the effects of potential fatigue by looking at Embiid's shots created by quarter and how efficient he was on those shots:
The charts above are from the second round. While Embiid's shots created don't necessarily fall as the game goes on, his efficiency certainly does. The question to be answered here is if that's just from variance, taking tougher shots, better defense, or fatigue. Another factor here could just be pain. Embiid is playing through a laterally torn meniscus, and I would assume as the game is going on the swelling and pain increases. That could potentially limit his mobility, which would cause what we perceive at fatigue. The only people that really know if fatigue is the main factor here is Joel Embiid and the staff of the Sixers, but his play in the second half of the last two games has been notable.
Contextualizing One of the Greatest Displays of Shot Creation Ever
Posted: 6/16
Last night, Kevin Durant scored 49 points on 81.56% True Shooting. The diet of shots he was taking was utterly ridiculous:
95.7% OF HIS SHOTS WERE CONTESTED! HIS EFG% ON CONTESTED SHOTS WAS 81.8%! That's honestly one of the more inane things I've ever seen. Durant was incredibly, and he scored in a ton f different ways. Off the dribble from deep, in the post, off screens, off well timed cuts, and a lot of isolation. Durant is arguably the most unstoppable scorer in the history of the sport, and this game was a good reminder of that. Not only did Durant create that many shots for himself, but he was phenomenal as a passer. He had 17 potential assists, which is a very good number (Luka Doncic averaged 16.3 potential assists per game in the regular season). It's also important to note that Durant played pretty solid defense, despite playing the entire game and carrying a lot of the offensive load.
The question everyone is asking is how to stop Durant, and the solution a lot of people think is viable is putting Giannis on him. For these people, I'll say that if you think Giannis is the answer then you probably don't watch a ton of basketball (not necessarily an insult). Giannis is best as an unbelievable free safety. He is not great with stop-start short area burst, and he cannot get over screens consistently. Whenever Giannis has gotten switched onto Durant this series, it has been really ugly. Giannis can't stay in front of him 1 on 1. The Nets also run a ton of wide pin downs, staggers, and high ball screens for Durant. Giannis couldn't handle that. Giannis is a great defensive player, but saying "he's DPOY, he should guard the other teams best player" is completely missing the boat on why he's so good at defense and how he won DPOY. Tucker and Middleton are much better options, and have been doing a good job on Durant all series. If a player is going to score 49 points while 1 of his 23 shot attempts are uncontested, you have to live with that. Their problem in this series has never been their defense...
Trae Young is Still an Awesome Creator
Posted: 6/16
In games 2 and 3, I thought the Sixers figured out some stuff that would slow down Trae Young for the rest of the series. Apparently, I was wrong. In game 4, Trae Young put on a crazy display of shot creation in a lot of different ways. He was having more success in the double drag and pick and roll game than before. I think some of the reason was that Danny Green was not playing, but Trae did a great job of going through his reads and not being bothered nearly as much by the Sixers length:
Yes, that is correct. Trae Young finished the game with 31 potential assists (regular season leader was Russel Westbrook with 21.9). He also created 25 shots for himself, which adds up to 56 total shots created. Absolutely insane. With the Green injury, Young did a great job of targeting Curry and Korkmaz more in screening actions. He also was great with a wide variety of deliveries in the pick and roll game, always leaving Embiid guessing what his next move was going to be. Also, some credit should go to Nate McMillan, who designed sets with more movement or more empty corner actions. The question of how sustainable this performance was is up in the air, but to beat the 76ers Trae is going to need a couple more games like this.
Utah Has Some Offensive Problems
Posted: 6/15
The Utah Jazz have some offensive problems. After Tyronn Lue was messing around with rotations and coverages for the first two games of the series, he finally figured out some stuff that worked in game 3. Guard Mitchel with better players, don't put Kennard or Zubac on the floor when he's in, send random traps, fly around tag the roller early, fly around on the back line. In games 3 and 4, the Jazz are just struggling to create advantages against the Clippers smaller lineups. As long as they can contain Donovan Mitchell at the point of attack and the roller is tagged, the Jazz simply don't have enough counters. The Clippers can live with Ingles or Bogdanovic self creating some looks if it means stopping Mitchell. The reason I think the Jazz offensive is in trouble is because it's not like they've been getting unlucky:
If you're wondering why there's no bar in game 9 (last nights game), it's because the Jazz scored almost exactly as much as expected. The shooting wasn't the issue, it was the shots they were generating. The Jazz offense has devolved from what it was earlier because the Clippers are executing switches much better. The Jazz are also missing someone who could really take advantage of slanted defenses in Mike Conley:
Conley demolished the pick and roll coverages of the Memphis Grizzlies all series long. He is great at reading the back line and attacking or making the right passing read. Conley is also another threat to shoot it off the dribble, which means any screening action with him would require a player at the level. He would also be very useful when a trap comes against Mitchell, as him playing 4 on 3 basketball is not advantageous for the defense. Conley would be bleeding value because of his size on defense, but his offensive impact would be really interesting to watch. Could he force the Clippers to double him some, and if that happens how does that open the flor up for Mitchell. Would Snyder stagger him with the bench, and would that play Zubac right off the floor? Could the Clippers guard inverted actions, or more actions with Mitchell working off the ball? Conley opens up a lot offensively, and hopefully he can come back for game 5.
The Impact of Danny Green
Posted: 6/15
Yes, I am part of the Danny Green hive which thinks Green is an immensely valuable role player who every championship team should want. Yes, I do think it's an unforgivable mistake that the Lakers traded away Danny Green and a pick for Dennis Schroder, who I think is far worse than Green. Danny Green is awesome because he is your prototypical 3 and D wing. He flies around screens and is fantastic with his relocation footwork, always making him an offensive threat. He is incredible in transition on both offense and defense. He is capable of locking and trailing shooters all game long. He has high level help defense instincts and real size that allow for him to seamlessly fit into any scheme. In the Hawks series, I thought he was a very key piece of their defense:
Anyone can tell you that Green got lit up by Trae Young, but anyone can also tell you that was a ludicrous coaching decision that didn't maximize Danny Green's defense ability. In the next game, Green was placed on Bogdanovic. This move allowed him to lock and trail on the pet staggers, trail around screens easier, and provide real help as the low man or at the nail. He also was much better in ball screen defense as the screeners defender, as he switched or showed well. Green also did a very good job on Bogdanovic on an island, as he is not nearly as quick twitch as Trae Young, nor is his handle as manipulative. I wanted to show the value of Green's off-ball defense, but that's always a major challenge:
Deflections are not a great stat for what I am trying to say. A lot of it is scheme or luck based, and some players actively hunt deflections more than others without actually providing plus value. Anyways, you're just going to have to trust my eye test on Green's off-ball defense being very good or make your own assessment. In last night's game, the 76ers were forced to start Furkan Korkmaz in place of Danny Green. Korkmaz took on the Bogdanovic assignment and it wasn't pretty. He got exposed off the ball, and he just isn't nearly as good as Green is in that role. The Hawks also ran a lot of guard-guard screens, and Bogdanovic would simply pop into open looks after the Korkmaz hard show. They could easily get this whenever they wanted, and it was especially dangerous when it was angled as a side ball screen with an empty weak side. Green is very valuable, but there are ways for Philly to adjust. They can simply remove Korkmaz from the starters and place Maxey or Hill in that role, which is what I would do if I were Doc Rivers.
Mitigating the Impact of Rudy Gobert
Posted: 6/15
Rudy Gobert was the deserving defensive player of the year, and I went as far as to say that anyone who didn't think so probably shouldn't have a vote. I still completely stand by that, but that's a regular season award. In the playoffs, Gobert is still clearly one of the best defenders in the league, but he doesn't have the same impact that he does in the regular season. Most of Gobert's value comes from protecting the paint. He is by far the best rim protector in the league. In the first few games, the Clippers were willing to go at him with little success:
The Clippers game 4 offense was great, with an offensive rating of 125.8 (81st percentile). Something they have changed is the way they use their personnel. They are no longer playing Zubac very more against Gobert, which I really like. Gobert is mostly forced to defend Batum, which means he is out on the perimeter and away from help position. If he sags off to help, the defense is automatically in rotation with the right kick out. If he doesn't help, the possession is won by the Clippers. This constant evaluation of when to help is tough for anyone, even Gobert. The Clippers have also been doing a good job of using Batum:
When Gobert is on Batum, the main goal is to get him far away from help position. A good way to do that is to either have Batum on the strong side or have him shake or exchange on the weakside as there is an action being run. Also just using Batum as someone to handle the ball helps some because it is forcing Gobert to move. Gobert is actually a much better mover on the perimeter than people seem to realize, but just him being out there is mitigating his defensive dominance.
Point God Appreciation
Posted: 6/14
Chris Paul is 36 years old and just had a fantastic series against the Nuggets to help the Suns reach the Western Conference Finals. Paul finished the series averaging 35.4 points per 100 possessions (about where Tatum was at in the regular season) on an insane 73.53% True Shooting. He did this while dishing out 19 potential assists per game (would've been 2nd highest in the regular season), completely controlling the pace, and playing above average defense. Oh yeah, and he is just coming off a shoulder injury that made him almost unplayable a week and a half ago:
It's great to see Chris Paul be back, and dominating offensively in his typical fashion. The Nuggets had zero answers for stopping Paul in any kind of ball screen. It helps that Monty Williams is a master at manipulating the defense, but Paul is a master at executing the reads. At the beginning of the series, the Nuggets were playing a more aggressive pick and roll coverage. I you do that against Chris Paul, he can make the cross court skip to the corner with his eyes closed, or if the tag is a quarter step late he can hit the roller with a multitude of different deliveries, weights, and angles. After Paul was lighting up the aggressive ball screen coverage, the Nuggets began to show more drop. That's when Chris Paul can really get into his bag:
He loves that right elbow. If you let him get there, it's over. Against a drop, Paul is able to snake the pick and roll every time, making the defensive responsibilities a lot more difficult. If one player messes up their now more complicated assignment, it's going to be an open shot or a dunk. If the drop is played well, it doesn't matter either. Paul can just get to the elbow and get a shot off over anyone. This season, Chris Paul shot 55% on short mid-range shots and 52% on long mid-range shots. He's one of the few players in the league that are actually efficient in those areas. Paul is an absolute savant of a basketball mind, making it incredibly difficult to scheme against him.
Paul's basketball mind also shows in some of his turnover numbers. A lot of people have been talking about the turnover stuff, and I usually don't like it. Good passers usually have high turnover numbers because you have to take calculated risks to be a truly elite passer. The thing about Chris Paul is that he never turns the ball over despite taking a lot of passing risks. His placement on the passes he makes is truly remarkable. The way he reads all levels of the defense is next level. For him to be that short (listing him at 6'0" is generous) and not get bothered by length in passing lanes and at the point of attack is incomprehensible to me. To further illustrate how great Paul is in the turnover department, I made a chart inspired by Seth Partnow from The Athletic:
Not only does Chris Paul just never turn it over on offense, he is the cause of a good amount of turnovers on defense. Again, the fact that Chris Paul is still doing this at his age is mystifying. He is finally on the right team with the perfect head coach to maximize his skillset. If I were to lay a bet down right now on who wins the NBA championship, I would place it on the Phoenix Suns.
The Bucks Offense is... Getting Better?
Posted: 6/14
I've been begging for the Bucks offense to get back to what they were doing in the regular season, and in game 4 they started doing just that. Although I still think their offense has a ways to go, the theory was far better yesterday. Their offensive rating was at 104.9, good for the 27th percentile. While that number obviously isn't great, it is still much higher than it has been before. Game 1 was at 101.9 (22nd percentile), game 2 was at 90.5 (5th percentile), and game 3 was at 89.6 (3rd percentile). Something I've been racking this whole series has been the general ball movement, and that was much better for the Bucks yesterday:
The passes made were way up, and the potential assists were far higher. Potential assists are a decent measure of making the "right pass," as opposed to just looking at quantity of passes. The Bucks were running sets with a lot more movement and logic behind them. It didn't hurt they were able to get out and run in transition some, but the simple adjustment of utilizing Giannis much more as a screener really worked. Something else I've been looking at this series for the Bucks is the touches:
While still not at regular season level, this is much better than it had been. I expect continued improvement in these numbers, but in the playoffs at times you do need the ball to get a little more sticky, as shot creation is more difficult to come by. I would still like the bucks to get back to running some more of their sets utilizing all of the big 3 more, and I think Giannis should be almost exclusively used as a dominating player on rolls, cuts, and short rolls. Not only was the Bucks theory better, but the shot selection was also better:
While still not getting to the rim as much, they cut down on their diet of mid-range pull-ups. They got a lot of 3's, and many of which were assisted. That is a great sign for their offense, and it is also a sign of the Nets packing the paint on drives and the Bucks doing a better job of finding the correct kick out passes. This is more of the shot profile the Bucks should roll with. You can live with good 3's not falling, but you should not live with self created mid-range shot not falling. The Bucks still have another level they can get to offensively, but their floor and ceiling is raised when they are playing more like this.
Is Paul George Inconsistent?
Posted: 6/13
Paul George has been taking a lot of slander this postseason, and I don't think a lot of it is warranted. I think people tend to easily remember the points scored numbers being lower than usual and forget everything else George is doing. He's playing a ton of minutes, and is one of the only players that can apply true rim pressure and also warp the perimeter defense consistently on the Clippers. Something that a lot of people say about George is that he is inconsistent, which is something I wanted to explore:
I found the inconsistency scores by taking the standard deviation of a player's shot making throughout the playoffs. Above are the players with the top 10 FGA. Paul George has actually been one of the more consistent players from a shot making standpoint amongst this group. That may come as a surprise to some. A part of this is that George hasn't had a massive shot making game. Standard deviation also counts positive spikes, so if you are usually really good but are sometimes really great, you're going to be "inconsistent." I think a more fair criticism of George can be his inconsistency on the defensive side of the ball, or his shot selection at times on offense.
The Strange Evaluation of Donovan Mitchell
Posted: 6/13
I think Donovan Mitchell is consistently very overvalued in the regular season. He is a primary shot creation that doesn't have a ton of playmaking juice, doesn't play very good defense, and he doesn't score the ball efficiently. This past season, Rudy Gobert was the most valuable player on that Jazz team and it wasn't even close. However, something has happened to Mitchell the past two postseasons that makes his evaluation trickier:
The past two postseasons, Mitchell's efficiency has skyrocketed far above league average in the playoffs. The question to me becomes this: is Mitchell actually this great of a shot maker and creator, or has he just gotten lucky over the past couple of small samples? I couldn't tell you the answer to that question. he looks awesome in the playoffs as a shot creator, but if some of the tougher looks don't fall would our evaluation of him be a bad shot taker? This is why playoff evaluation can be so tricky. The playoffs are completely different than the regular season, but the sample is also so small. How much weight should we be placing on the numbers? It's a difficult concept to think about, but I will be tracking Mitchell's efficiency numbers throughout his career to see if this pattern holds.
Tyronn Lue and the Clippers Rotations
Posted: 6/13
I think Tyronn Lue is a really good coach, but my biggest criticism of him is still that he seems to be a game too slow. Last night, I think he gave some interesting looks and made a lot of good adjustments on both sides of the ball. He sent a lot of different coverages and matchups at Donovan Mitchell. The defensive rotations were a lot tighter. The offense made more sense. It helps that the Clippers were hitting more shots, but I do think the adjustments Lue made went a long way. The most obvious adjustments a coach makes is to the rotations, which I wanted to look at:
There's a lot of interesting stuff to unpack here. First, there was a noticeable dip in Marcus Morris' minutes last night. I think that was more of a product of Lue playing Terance Mann and Nicolas Batum a lot more. I think Batum is more valuable in this particular matchup, and I am a big Mann fan. He fits nicely a a matchup on Mitchell and someone who can put more pressure on the rim in this series. I think it's really strange that Lue didn't have Mann in the rotation until game 3, as he was such a valuable piece in the Dallas series and would fit even better in this series theoretically. Another move I like is lowering Zubac's minutes. I don't think he gives you enough on either end to justify playing him too much in this particular matchup. I also like scaling back Kennard's minutes, as he got picked apart in game 1.
There are two pieces that really confuse me and work towards my criticism of Lue. There is no way Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins should have played as much as they did. How does Rondo go from 28 minutes to a DNP? It was brutally obvious five minutes into his first stint during game 1 he couldn't play in this series. I think the same can be said for Cousins. I don't understand the theory of him playing at all. If Lue was quicker to decide to play those two less, would that have swung a game? Probably not, but maybe. The first two games were fairly close, and a minor adjustment to the rotation could have realistically swung the outcome. The rotations are a good encapsulation of Lue as a coach to me. He's going to try stuff and eventually figure it out, but it just may happen too late.
The Bucks Desperately Need Adjusting
Posted: 6/13
The other day, I talked about the Bucks offense. Unfortunately, I didn't have as much time as I would've liked to dig into it. In preparation for the incredibly important game 3, I wanted to write about the Bucks again. During the regular season, the Bucks had an offensive rating of 117.5, which was 7th in the league. The Nets had a defensive rating of 113.7, which was 21st in the league. I cannot stress enough how strange it is that the Bucks are struggling this much. They have completely abandoned their principles and what made them so good in the regular season:
They are doing exactly what Brooklyn wants them to do. It's honestly ridiculous that we're in game 3 of the series and the Bucks haven't drastically adjusted their offensive approach. In game 3, their offense was still really bad. Look at the insane difference in paint touches from the regular season. This is so strange because that's where the Bucks were supposed to dominate this series! Look at the massive difference in assisted shots. I get that number is going to decrease in the playoffs, but in the first round it was at .532 for the Bucks! I've talked a lot about the ball just not moving for Milwaukee, and the seconds and dribbles per touch show that fairly well. Their shot selection was also bad again in game 3:
Why are the Bucks shooting so many midrange jumpers? Is the Nets defense really that good at preventing shots at the rim and from 3? I'll give a similar criticism to Giannis:
Stop shooting 3's! I truly do not understand how Giannis can take how Giannis can take 8 3's in a game when he is such a poor shooter. Also, look how many midrange jumpers he's shooting! What are we doing here? Giannis is best when used as a demolishing roller to the rim and off ball cutter, he's simply not a very good isolation player. There's nothing wrong with that. Mike Budenholzer and the Bucks need to make serious offensive adjustments or I find it hard to believe the Bucks are going to win another game in this series.
Atlanta's Shooting
Posted: 6/13
I wrote a little bit yesterday about the Sixers defense, but I mainly wrote about their on-ball work. Today, I wanted to write a little about their off-ball defense. They have really done a great job in tightening their rotations and feeling out when to help or not help off shooters. Because of this adjustment, the Hawks have not been able to shoot the ball nearly as much from distance:
In game 3, the Hawks only shot 23 3-point attempts as a team. There's been a lot of studies done on this, but generally the best way to defend the three is to prevent it all together. The 76ers have done a really good job at doing that these past couple of games. In game 1, the Hawks shot 47 3's. The way the 76ers have been able to wipe that aspect of the Hawks offensive game away has been really impressive.
Have the 76ers Figured it out?
Posted: 6/12
The 76ers have won the last two games of the series in fairly convincing fashion. Last night, they did another great job of limiting the offensive impact of Trae Young:
The Hawks offensive rating in game 1 was 120.8, and since their offense just hasn't been nearly as good. I think two players are mainly responsible for this, and the first is obviously Ben Simmons. He has done a great job of getting into Trae Young and really disrupting him with size and length. He is also great at getting around screens and bothering Young from the rearview. The other player who I think has done a great job is Joel Embiid. I don't think Embidd had a very good defensive game in the first outing, but has sense been fantstic. He is using his impressive agility to get out on the floor on ball screens, detour lobs and floaters, and he is able to mix up coverages to keep Young from making automatic reads. It is the defense that I did not think Embiid would be capable of coming into this series with his given injury. Unless there is an injury to Embiid, it's hard for me to see the Hawks getting another game in this series.
The Bucks Offense is Still... Disappointing
Posted: 6/11
The Bucks won game 3, which is a good thing. In a must win game, Mike Budenholzer was coaching for his life. The only major offensive adjustments that happened in that Giannis set a lot more ball screens and Middleton played a whole lot better. The Bucks shot making wasn't very good last night, but neither was the Nets (although the Bucks was slightly worse). Per CleaningTheGlass, the Bucks offensive rating was 89.6, good for the 3rd percentile. That may be good enough to luckily win you 1 game, but if you think you don't need to adjust it's going to be a gentleman's sweep. Here's how the Bucks passing was last night, which is something I've been tracking during the series:
As you can see, still way below average. That's disappointing, as it indicates the Bucks are playing into the Nets scheme. They want to bait the mismatch hunting, as it takes you right out of your normal offensive flow. Passing the ball 20% less per game is a meaningful mark. However, something I harp on a lot is meaningful passing. Here's the Bucks potential assists throughout the series:
Yes, this is a major difference. This again indicates the Nets are able to get the Bucks out of their general offensive scheme. To me, that is why their shot quality is so low. They are just taking really bad shots. Their offensive theory is not good. Despite only being down 2-1, the series feels more lopsided than that. Budenholzer needs some major adjustments before game 4, otherwise he should kiss his job goodbye.
The Loss of De'Andre Hunter
Posted: 6/10
It was reported a couple of days ago that De'Andre Hunter was going to undergo another knee surgery and miss the rest of the season. Hunter had a breakout second campaign, becoming a very valuable wing on both ends of the floor. While improvements in shot creating and decision-making are what put him over the top, I still think his standout area is on the defensive side of the ball. Here's how he did in the first round matchup against the Knicks:
He was the primary defender on Julius Randle, but he also spent time on Derrick Rose. This type of wing versatility on the defensive end is exactly what the NBA is looking for, and it becomes supremely valuable in the playoffs. The reason Hunter is able to do so much defensively is because of his physical tools combined with defensive IQ and motor:
Above are height and wingspan measurements of wings, taken from the last 11 combines. Among the best in terms of height and wingspan is De'Andre Hunter, who boasts a height of 6'8" and a wingspan of 7'2". Hunter would've been able to defend either Tobias Harris or Ben Simmons in the series (probably Harris), but he also would've been a very strong help defender, especially as the man doubling Embiid or cleaning up after the double. Offensively, he also would've helped attack Seth Curry, as he is currently hiding out on Hunter's replacement, Solomon Hill. Losing Hunter is big, and it may be a large contributing factor to the Sixers eventually winning the series.
Nuggets Offensive Struggles
Posted: 6/10
So far in the series, the Denver Nuggets have posted an offensive rating of 103.6. That's fairly poor, especially considering that number was at 118.0 in the regular season, good for 5th in the league. I usually find it easiest to quantify why a team is struggling offensively by looking at their shooting numbers:
Nothing insane stands out here, right? The largest drop is clearly the rim percentage, but them getting there more often should help balance it out. Also, percentage at the rim is something the other team can actually control, meaning it is much less luck based than 3-point percentage. A drop in rim scoring would be more likely to sustain. To further look at why this offense is struggling, I wanted to look at the Nuggets four factors:
The big takeaway here for me is the free throw rate decreasing so drastically. Getting to the line that much less can cause a drop or about 10 points per game, which is obviously significant. That combined with the dip in eFG% and OReb% will do the trick for slowing down their offense. So, how is Phoenix doing it? It obviously starts with DeAndre Ayton not fouling and playing really strong individual defense on Jokic. The other players are also doing a very good job in helping and scrambling, as well as off-ball communication. The Nuggets are struggling to generate good looks, get consistent penetration, or cause any real problems for the Suns. I think they should start Will Barton and Monte Morris in the backcourt for game 3, as those are their two best offensive guards.
The Suns Continued Offensive Dominance
Posted: 6/10
Through the first two games of the series, the Phoenix Suns have been torching the Nuggets defense to the tune of a 129.1 offensive rating. The thing that has stood out to me is the amount of good looks from 3 they've been getting. I wrote about this earlier when talking about catch and shoots, but I wanted to take this a step further to look at what the Suns offense is designed to hunt: corner 3's. Corner 3's are so desirable not because they are closer, but because they space the floor better and the quality of those looks tends to be much higher. This is how the Suns and Nuggets respectively hunted and defended corner 3's this season:
Summary: the Suns are really good at getting and making corner 3's and the Nuggets are bad at preventing them. As I wrote about earlier, this is by design. Suns actions are built to make the low man's tag really difficult, and they always have to make a decision. Combine that with good shooters, excellent ball movement, and strong on-ball creation and you get the Suns. In game 2, the Suns got 13% of their shots from the corners (90th percentile). In game 1, that number was at 16% (97th percentile). The big issue I have here is I have no idea how the Nuggets can stop this. You need a more versatile big that can either play in a flat coverage or a very soft drop, and Jokic just isn't that player. I still feel good about my Suns in 5 pick.
Stopping Trae Young
Posted: 6/09
Last night, the 76ers did a great job of slowing down Trae Young. He failed to have the monster impact in terms of creation that he had in game 1:
So, how did the 76ers do this? They did it with the adjustment everyone was thinking. They put Simmons on Trae as the primary matchup, and off the bench they had Thybulle defending him. Unless there was some sort of switch or scramble, it was always one of those two defending him. The results were clearly much better:
I still think Trae Young's best skill is his passing, but what he brings as a scorer makes him a special offensive talent. If you can generally eliminate that by showing length and physicality at all times, then it makes the Hawks offense much less dynamic. Simmons and Thybulle did a great job in being more active, fighting through screens, and making second and third effort plays. The weakside help did a better job of rotating, and Embiid did a much better job at being active. They also threw some different looks at Young, hard showing or even switching on some double drags. He was clearly bothered by what the 76ers were doing defensively, so let's see how he and Nate McMillan adjust going into game 3.
The Joel Embiid Problem
Posted: 6/09
I picked the Hawks to win in 6 games against the 76ers because I didn't think Joel Embiid would look at all like himself playing through a torn meniscus. Of course, I was completely wrong. Embiid has been dominant offensively in the first two games of the season, and like I said earlier he was better defensively last night as well. Embiid is an unbelievable athlete for his size, and had a couple of draw dropping displays of body control, footwork, and touch. He is clearly one of the best scorers in the league:
So, how do you stop this guy? In game 1 the answer was to bring baseline doubles, but the timing and execution was routinely off on them. In game 2, the Hawks leaned more into the one on one assignment, and Capela got completely torched:
The Capela matchup is not really fair. Embiid is listed at 7'0", 280 pounds. Capela is listed at 6'10", 240 pounds. Add to that the fact that Embiid has a quicker first step and a perimeter skill set and you have an enormous problem. Capela is an awesome defender (I had him 2nd on my DPOY ballot). but this is one of the worst matchups in the league for him. He is reluctant to help because of Embiid, doesn't switch, and can't defend one on one against Joel. On offense, he allows Embiid to hang around the rim and doesn't offer much besides some roll gravity and vertical spacing in the charge circle.
A suggestion I have made before when playing Embiid without someone to stop him is to go small. No matter what, he's going to score. No matter what, you're going to have to bring doubles. Why not space him out to the fullest extent on offense and just bring a double every time on defense? I think I would throw Gallinari and Collins onto Embiid and just send doubles on the catch every time. On offense, I'd constantly force Embiid to defend in movement and space. It's a fairly radical strategy, which is not something Nate McMillan does, but if he doesn't adjust I don't see how the Hawks win this series.
Rudy Gobert's Defense is Holding Up
Posted: 6/09
A big point of contention for Rudy Gobert all season long has been how he will hold up in the playoffs against a more versatile offense. Quite frankly, that has been the talking point with him for his whole career. Now with the matchup against the Clippers Gobert has the ultimate challenge. A team that plays small, 5-out basketball in theory should mitigate Gobert's affect on the game as a rim protector. Here is how Gobert fared in game 1 defensively when contesting shots:
He had a massive impact all over the floor defensively. Credit the Jazz other pieces for rotating and covering Gobert if he went to protect the paint, but Gobert held up very well on the perimeter. Players could not get by him on switches, and if they tried to shoot they were doing it over Gobert's outstretched arms. Here are some of the matchups Gobert had during the game:
Centers points per 100 possessions can be tricky with how the NBA tracks matchup data, so focus on the True Shooting percentages for the most part. Gobert did a very good job in this game not only contesting but detouring shots at the rim. There were plenty of times when drives completely fizzled out because of Gobert's presence. I think the Clippers can do a better job of utilizing space and matchup advantages, but the defensive prowess of Gobert should not come into question based of how things currently stand.
Donovan Mitchell's Scoring
Posted: 6/09
Donovan Mitchell torched the Clippers last night for 45 points on 67.12% True Shooting. What was really impressive about the game was the way he scored. He was doing it mostly self created an doff the dribble, attacking the mismatches or coverages the defense was giving him. Here's a visualization of how he scored relative to touch time:
Remember, a touch time of over 2 seconds is considered a self created shots. This means Mitchel self created 27 of his 30 field goal attempts last night, and was efficient on those looks. At lot of this was done because of weak point of attack defense. The Clippers don't necessarily have a great player to match up with Mitchell's lightning first step, so the Clippers need better rim help or better point of attack ball screen defense. Giving players such as Reggie Jackson or especially Luke Kennard heavy minutes while Mitchell is on the floor just isn't going to cut it:
Tyronn Lue needs to adjust again after a disappointing game 1, and the obvious place to start seems to be to get more Mann and Beverley minutes. Those two are probably the best equipped to defend Mitchell, and they are certainly the best on the team at navigating and staying attached on ball screens. Maybe trying to ice the screens or play it more flat would work if it is mixed in as well. Losing game 1 to the Jazz without Mike Conley definitely hurts, but we'll see what Lue does. He did a great job in the last series adjusting, but he's going to need to do it earlier against a much better Jazz team.
Since this was one of the higher scoring playoff games, for fun we had to see how it stacked up against the other ridiculous playoff performances in terms of shot making:
The Nets "Outworking" the Bucks
Posted: 6/08
Yesterday on the national broadcast, Grant Hill said "the Nets are simply outworking the Bucks." One of my biggest pet peeves in NBA broadcasting is when a baseless blanket statement like that is used as an attempt to simplify such a complex game. These are NBA players, and everybody wants it. There is not really such a thing as wanting it more. When teams or players have more meaningful loose balls recovered or putback dunks, a lot of people tend to misconceive that as wanting to win more. That simply isn't true.
Above shows a graph of contested rebounds and loose balls recovered from each team in game 2. But the Nets won by 39 because they outworked the Bucks, right? They wanted it more, right? We tend to just remember the plays that are more exciting or have a larger perceived impact, but don't let that cloud your evaluation of the game in it's entirety. A ton happened in that game. Analyze what actually happened through film and numbers first before you make statements that are downright false and take away from the general public's ability to understand what happened.
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Posted: 6/08
Nothing was more frustrating than watching the Bucks offense last night. They had an offensive rating of 93.3, which is in the 6th percentile per CleaningTheGlass. In the half court, the Bucks scored 7.4 points per 100 plays (5th percentile). That's horrendous. There is a lot to talk about here, but I'd like to start wit shot selection:
The Bucks shot selection was really bad last night. Their advantage in this series is supposed to be their paint dominance, and that just hasn't happened. For them to be below their season average in frequency inside of five feet and beyond the three point line in this series is unacceptable. Here are the shot selections from Giannis:
Again, what are we doing here. Giannis is being defended by Blake Griffin, who can hold up with him fine in an isolation. Where he has no shot is if Giannis is on the move after some sort of other action. The most basic of which would be a pick and roll, preferably with an empty weak side or single tag with a shooter. The Bucks just didn't go to that very often, even though it destroyed the Nets in game 1. They settled for Giannis isolation at the elbows or top of the key, and that's just bad offense. Here is some more data on the Bucks offense:
The Bucks shot making wasn't good, but it's not like it was detrimentally awful like in the first game. Their ball movement and theory just sucks right now. They are falling into iso-ball against a weaker switch heavy defense, but the best way to kill the switches is to get a ton of player movement. The Bucks potential assist numbers are very telling to me. They just aren't running sets that are creating high level shots. Also look at the number of total passes for both teams. Why aren't the Bucks moving the ball. Their offense stinks right now, and I put a lot of that blame on Mike Budenholzer. There are obvious angles to attack this defense that he just isn't taking. I also blame the players themselves. The Bucks three best players just haven't been very good. Something incredibly drastic is going to have to change from a theory perspective for the Bucks to have a shot at this point.
Is Chris Paul Back? + Suns Offense
Posted: 6/08
Chris Paul looked awesome last night as the Suns defeated the Nuggets. I am still wondering if he is all the way back from his shoulder injury, so I looked at a bunch of numbers to see if we could find out:
While last night's performance was certainly really good, it's hard to tell just from these six measures if he is "back." It's certainly a possibility that Paul just shot the ball really well, giving us an undeserved belief that he played better than he actually did. To my eye-test, Paul looked close to normal. He was pulling three's and making cross court skips. He didn't loose the ball off a mishandle like he did before and seemed more interesting in shooting deeper shots and mid-range pull ups. That perception could again also be clouded by the shot making (what are we saying if the 25-foot step back 3 over Paul Millsap is short?). Either way, I'm not sure we will get a true test of how that shoulder is feeling until the next round.
I Tweeted a lot about the Suns offense, but I did want to make a quick note of it here. The Nuggets need to bring Jokic up to the level in ball screen coverage because of his physical limitations and the Suns pull up shooting. The issue with this is someone has to tag the roller, generally leaving a weakside corner skip. This means the weakside defender has to split two, but the Suns are so good with their spacing it's tough to do that. The Suns were hunting the skip pass all game long with multiple actions, ball handlers, and taggers. This resulted in a lot of spot up, catch and shoot 3's for the Suns. They got 26 looks and made 42.3% of them.
Above is how both teams fared in the regular season on spot ups. The Suns were able to generate a lot of spot ups and make a good amount of them offensively. The Nuggets struggled on defense to prevent spot ups, and generally gave up good ones. I don't think the Nuggets defense has the personnel to handle the Suns offense, and I'm feeling pretty good about picking the Suns in 5 games.
Nikola Jokic Game 1 Struggles
Posted: 6/08
Nikola Jokic did not have his best game last night against the Suns. He struggled to produce efficient buckets on offense, didn't dominate as a passer, and wasn't great on defense. Some of his struggles were that tough shots just didn't fall. Jokic is an incredible shot maker, but taking such tough looks can lead to greater variability in his outcomes:
So yes, that was one of his weaker shot making games in the playoffs. My question is about whether Ayton is just a really good defender or if shots didn't happen to go into the basket:
Ayton matched up with Jokic all night long, except for an occasional switch on screens between the 4 and 5 (which I would hunt if I were Denver). Looking at the numbers, it appears Ayton did a really good job. Almost 33 points per 100 possessions is fairly low, as he was at 37.7 for the season. However, if some of those tough shots fall we come away with a different outlook. I expect Denver to adjust by using Jokic much more on the move and in open space, which is where Ayton can struggle. Ayton is a very good post defender, but he can be indecisive or a second slow with how he defends complex actions. We are also just looking at a very small sample of shots. I'm not going to overreact to it, so let's see what happens in game 2 and beyond.
Trae Young's Scoring Ability
Posted: 6/07
Trae Young was exceptional in the Hawk's game 1 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers. He is another one of those players that seemingly has a counter to every coverage. Against a drop he has the best floater in the league, if you come up to touch or blitz he can turn the corner or pass, and if you go under it's a shot every time. The display of self created opportunities from Trae was insane:
In game 1, Trae Young took 23 shots. Every single one of them was self created. It's not normal for a player to be capable of creating 23 shots for himself in a game and still be efficient (56.52 eFG%). All of those self created shots didn't prevent him from making all the right passing reads as well. For the Sixers, they need to adjust their coverages. The most obvious solution to me is to put Ben Simmons as the primary matchup on Young. Danny Green just can't stay in front on an island and doesn't have to mobility anymore to stay attached over screens, especially with all the double drag Atlanta runs. Embiid's lowered mobility with the torn meniscus may just be a problem they can't get around, but I think they are going to go with a softer drop. That coverage may open up either the lob or cross corner kick out, but you have to give up something. Philly looked good after the beginning tidal wave from Atlanta, so we will see how Doc Rivers adjusts his coverages going into game 2.
Nets vs. Bucks Game 1
Posted: 6/06
The Nets defeated the Bucks last night in fairly convincing fashion... right? I think the answer to that is kinda, but there is a lot of context here. I picked the Bucks to win the series in games, and I didn't see anything in game 1 that makes me particularly nervous about that. Here are some interesting numbers from NBA tracking data comparing the offensive performances from both teams:
The obvious place to start is with the shot making. The Bucks simply did not shoot the ball well. They scored about 20 points less than expected base on their shot quality, which is obviously a massive number. There is going to be positive shooting regression in their favor for game 2. The other stuff is more concerning to me. The Nets switch a lot, so in theory it should me more simple to get easier matchups on weaker defenders. A good way to do this is with off-ball motion or false action into your sets, and I didn't see a ton of that from Milwaukee. Manipulating the switching is needed to properly attack the Nets. There also just wasn't a ton of ball or player movement. I expect that to change. In terms of the Bucks defense, I think there is some low hanging fruit with cleaning up rotations, playing the right players, and adjusting the schemes. Maybe I'm still too optimistic on the Bucks, but game 2 will give us a lot of insight.
Defending Giannis
Posted: 6/05
The series that might be the best series of the playoffs starts tonight with Game 1 of Bucks vs. Nets. I've thought a lot about how these two teams match up, and one question that will be interesting to see the answer to is how the Nets defend Giannis. Here are the players they threw at him during the regular season:
The man who got called on the most was DeAndre Jordan, but he hasn't played at all in the playoffs so far. Are the Nets going to dust him off and throw him into the fire? Blake Griffin has also spent a lot of time on Giannis, and he has started at center for the Nets during the playoffs. Maybe he will get the assignment, but that complicates the Brook Lopez coverage. I think Jeff Green may be the best option, but I don't really expect him to be effective in this series with the plantar fascia injury. It'll be interesting to see how Nash handles the matchup and how he adjusts throughout the series.
If you're interested in learning how to get started in R or learning more about basketball analytics, I would highly recommend subscribing to the F5 by Owen Phillips. His tutorials allowed me to build a great foundation on how to scrape data and make these good looking charts you see in this notebook. Could not recommend it more!
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