With the NBA Offseason nearly complete, I wanted to visualize some of the observations I have been making throughout. Below I will be updating the notebook with some analytics looking at stuff teams are doing:
Lauri Markkanen Sign and Trade
The Cleveland Cavaliers just acquired Lauri Markkanen in a sign and trade, while also signing him to a $67 million dollar contract. He will be around the 75th highest paid player in the league next season, meaning he is going to get paid like a good starter. By LA-RAPM, LEBRON, RAPTOR, and RPM he is a negative impact player. The only advanced metric that doesn't say he is a negative is BPM, which graded him as a neutral. The metrics agree Markkanen is not a plus defender, but are split on his offensive value. I wanted to dig into why Markkanen isn't as valuable as some tend to think.
Firstly, the biggest Markkanen strength is the shooting. Here is how he compares to the other highest volume 3-pt. shooters above 6'10":
As you can see, Markkanen hits open shots at a very high rate. When he catches and shoots with space he is a very big asset. The issue is that he is reluctant to shoot contested jumpers. This has an impact on how much he is actually warping defenses. The fact that Markkanen also can't create shots copacts the issue of not being able to shoot contested ones:
If you run Markkanen off the line, he doesn't possess much value at all. He is essentially a 7'0" shooting guard that can't shoot off any kind of movement or off the dribble. He is a big player that is really good at standing still and spotting up. You can also guard him with a small because of the lack of finishing chops:
The finishing numbers above include every player in the league, not just big men. Markkanen finishes at the level of a solid guard, not at the level he needs to be to add plus value with his size. Again, the offensive archetype of someone who can stand and make open shots is never as valuable as people think if they don't have any other skills. I think Markkanen could be a difference maker if he could play small ball 5, but the rim protection isn't good enough for that:
One positive defensively is the rebounding, which could help with potential lineups next to Evan Mobley:
I don't understand the contract because I don't think Markkanen is at the level of a starter, and I certainly don't think he will reach the level of a good starter. He is only 24 years old, but I am not sure who the Cavs were negotiating against when they gave out this deal. DARKO, which does future player projections, gives Markkanen a 13.4% chance of being a good starter or better over the next 5 seasons. Those are not very good odds to return positive value on a contract.
What Lowry Adds to the Heat
I think the best player to move teams this offseason was Kyle Lowry. The Heat brought him in with a sign and trade that sent out Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa. I think Lowry adds something that the Heat desperately need, alongside his other contribution with playmaking and defense. I will start off with self creation, as that is something the Heat struggled with in the playoffs last year. The Bucks held the Heat to a horrid offensive rating of 98.9 in last years playoffs. Part of it was due to lack of strong self creation after Butler and Bam were generally neutralized, and this is how Lowry stacks up with that:
He isn't necessarily a brilliant creator of his own offense, but he is quite efficient when he does create. He is also adept at creating shots for others, whether it be out of the pick and roll, attacking in a one on one, or pushing the ball in transition. While the creation in general is important, I think the most important aspect that Lowry brings to the table in the pull up shooting from 3:
Where the Heat really struggled last season was with the fact that they couldn't get good looks against the Bucks drop coverage. This was because none of their players were good enough shooters off the dribble to concern the Bucks with stepping up. Lowry can kill drop coverage because of his constant threat to pull up from deep. He is an efficient enough shooter off the bounce that it would be unwise to allow him to take pull ups. He is the versatile pick and roll coverage killer that this Heat team needed last season. I think a rematch with the Bucks this year would be very interesting with Lowry's addition.
The Unique Value of Richaun Holmes
I am a big believer in Richaun Holmes, and I think he can provide positive value to a competing team. That's why I was shocked when I saw the Kings were bringing back Holmes on such a small contract. I thought there were teams out there with cap space (I'm looking at you, Charlotte) who would've been perfect fits for Holmes. I think Holmes is so interesting because of the unique versatility he brings to the table, and that starts with the floater:
Holmes is a very good shooter of the floater. His looks more like a push shot, but it's an excellent way to counter drop coverage. It also draws the big up in general, and Holmes can attack big men that stand under the rim without the threat of a jumper because the floater is so good. Here's how he compares to other big men:
Outside of Robin Lopez with his wacky hook shot, Holmes is by far the most efficient out of the high volume floater takers for big men. As the floater shouldn't be the main weapon because it isn't as effective as finishing around the rim, the floater is merely a counter for Holmes. He is a very good finisher around the rim:
Something else I love about Holmes is that he is a legit rim protector:
The Kings consistently have a very bad defense, but I don't think this is Holmes fault at all. He is a good rim protector and he is versatile in the coverages he can play because of his foot speed. He also has a motor that is always running on high, allowing him to recover often. I am surprised Holmes' production didn't garner him a larger deal in free agency, as I thought he was easily the best center on the market.
The Pacers Creation
Last season, the Pacers had the 14th ranked offense in the NBA. They added Caris LeVert midseason, and TJ Warren will be coming back fron injury this year. Those two for the entire season should give the Pacers a nice injection of creation ability:
The additions, along with a new coach in Rick Carlisle means that the Pacers offense should in theory be much better. An issue is that it can be difficult to scheme an offense with their particular personnel. Sabonis is an awkward fit with Turner. Warren is best with the ball, as we saw in the bubble. LeVert is also best with the ball in his hands, and McConnel needs the ball to have an impact offensively. It's going to take a creative coach to generate a really good offense, but I think Carlisle is the coach that can do it.
Lakers Shooting Concerns
There has been a lot of talk this season about the Lakers shooting, and how they will likely struggle to space the floor this upcoming season. Here are some of the shooting numbers from Lakers players who I expect will get playing time this season:
There are a ton of lineup combinations that Frank Vogel will try with this group, but the issues do arise when you think about their closing 5 in a playoff game. They are definitely going to have LeBron, AD, and Russell Westbrook out there. Westbrook isn't going to get guarded at all on the perimeter and Davis is going to get dared to shoot it. I think Ariza will take up one of the other closing spots, and he has been an inconsistent shooter the past few seasons. I'm not quite sure who the last spot would go to, and the lack of functional depth is a concern to me for this team. They have a lot of solid bench players but no one that I a confident about closing games. Whoever it is, overall shooting for the Lakers will be a question to monitor throughout the season, and especially in the playoffs.
Jeff Green for Paul Millsap Swap
This offseason, the Nets and the Nuggets essentially swapped Jeff Green and Paul Millsap. This is interesting because I think both teams wanted the player for a similar reason: to open up more possibilities in potential small ball lineups. I wanted to look at a few factors that are important determinants of success for small ball centers. First is obviously rim protection:
Neither player is a great rim protector, but I do think Millsap is better here. He is consistently better positionally, and his ability to protect the rim was a very underrated part of the Nuggets success the past few seasons. The story with Jeff Green is far more about defensive versatility instead of rim protection, however. The next factor I wanted to look at is rebounding:
Small ball centers generally have to rebound the basketball. Millsap is far stronger than Green, and is a much better rebounder. Next is finishing:
The numbers slightly favor Green, and I would agree with that sentiment. I think Green has far more versatility in his finishes, while Millsap is more of a player who finishes off cuts of dishes to the dunkers spot. The next offensive ability I wanted to look at is shooting:
Jeff Green is clearly a better shooter to me. He is much more willing to shoot the ball, and is a far more effective shooter. Him spacing the floor next to playmakers as a small ball 5 have always been intriguing. The final factor I wanted to look at is self creation:
Self creation is not the bread and butter for either of these players. I think Millsap is a far better passer and he can mash smalls in the post, but Green is much better at attacking hard closeouts. I think self creation is generally a toss up. I honestly like the swap for both teams. The Nets will be playing smaller lineups, and need someone who is better at protecting the rim and rebounding. Jeff Green will see a lot of minutes with Jokic, so it's important that he can space the floor more.
What Russell Westbrook Adds to the Lakers
An issue the Lakers have had without LeBron James on the floor throughout his tenure in Los Angeles is that their offense struggles when he is off the floor. The addition of Russell Westbrook should theoretically help with that, right? If you've read some of my articles before you would know I'm very down on Westbrook as a helpful player on a championship team because I don't think he can fit with other players well and I don't think he can drive efficient team offense.
I also want to point out a couple of notes about Russell Westbrook. First of all, he is not one of the greatest rebounding guards ever. Most of his rebounds are uncontested. He averaged 2.8 rebounds per game last season with an opposing player within 3.5 feet of him. His rebounding might be the most overrated skill in the history of basketball:
Westbrook's creation is also very mixed. His shot selection is awful, which hurts his team because of how many self created shots he takes. However, I do really like his ability to get two feet into the paint and make plays:
Finally, the shooting is always a question with Westbrook. I think cutting out a lot of the bad shots, especially contested 3's, would really help him. I just don't see a world where he really adjusts his shot selection:
In summary, if I want to win basketball games at a high level I'm staying away from Russell Westbrook. He inefficiently takes up far too many touches, doesn't defend, and isn't a good shooter. I struggle to see how he helps on a championship contender.
Wizards Rim Pressure Backcourt
The Wizards made one of the biggest moves of the offseason when they completed a massive 5 team sign and trade to acquire Spencer Dinwiddie. While he is coming off an ACL injury, I really like his fit on this Wizards team. Something that will be fun to watch is how much he can get to the rim:
Above are FGA attempts on drives per 36 minutes. Dinwiddie is noted with an asterisk because those are his 2019-2020 numbers, as he missed a majority of last year. As you can see, the Wizards projected starting backcourt of Dinwiddie and Beal ranks 5th and 7th respectively in FGA/36 on drives. The type of rim pressure will make the Wizards backcourt one of the more dynamic groups in the league.
Knicks Adding Creation
The biggest issue with the Knicks last season was their offense, and more specifically their lack of self creation. The Knicks relied very heavily on Julius Randle to be a creator, but he frankly isn't good enough yet to carry that load. The Knicks offense ranked 24th in the league per CleaningTheGlass, and only ranked in the 42nd percentile with Randle on the floor. That's not good enough. Again, the reason for this was the lack of self creation ability:
Despite ranking 2nd in self created shooting attempts, the Knicks ranked 25th in efficiency on those shots. There are two factors that lead to this: the players creating the shots aren't good enough at making them and there aren't enough players capable of creating for others. The Knicks have attempted to solve that issue in free agency this year:
They signed both Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, both of whom add some ability to create for themselves and others. I think they will slide into the starting backcourt and push R.J. Barrett to the wing. The additions of Walker and Fournier should do wonders to the Knicks offense.
Rudy Gay to the Jazz
An underrated move of the offseason in my opinion is Rudy Gay to the Jazz. Gay opens up some interesting lineup possibilities with his ability to protect the rim, space the floor, and attack closeouts. Gay is the type of versatile defender with secondary rim protection that the Jazz have lacked in recent years. Here is how he fared protecting the rim last season:
Gay is also a good enough three point shooter to get guarded on the perimeter, and he has gotten to a point where he is not afraid to fire away:
Something I think Gay needs to clean up is the shot selection. He settles in the midrange far too often, but the Jazz are going to give him more space and less of an offensive burden. It is also important to note that Gay has slowly declined as a finisher around the rim with age. While he does have very good measurables, the athleticism has been slowly declining for the 35 year old.
Steven Adams Rebounding
Steven Adams got traded this offseason to the Memphis Grizzlies. While I am not in love with the move from Memphis, Adams does fill an important need for this Grizzlies team: rebounding. Over the past 5 season of RAPM data from nbashotcharts.com, Steven Adams has the highest adjusted rebounds added:
This is much needed because of Jaren Jackson Jr. Jackson is not a good rebounder at all, but the Grizzlies hope to see him get more minutes this year:
Last season, the Grizzlies opponents posted a 29.2% offensive rebound rate with Jackson on the floor, which is good for the 6th percentile. When Jonas Valanciunas was on the floor with Jackson, also one of the top rebounders from the past 5 years, Memphis performed even worse on the defensive glass. They gave up a 35.6% offensive rebound rate with those two on the floor together, good for the 0th percentile. Maybe Adams will help to plug that hole. Maybe recently acquired Hernangomez and Oturu can also help to an extent. The rebounding has always been one of the biggest issues for Jackson Jr., and they will be interesting to track this season.
Clint Capela Extension
Clint Capela recently got his contract extended through 2025 on a two year deal worth $23 million per year. As you may know, I am not a big fan of paying centers unless they are elite. I have mixed feelings about if Capela falls into that group, but either way he is a very good player. I thought he should've gotten more consideration as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate because of his elite rim protection:
Capela is also an elite rebounder on both ends of the floor, which can help the Hawks play smaller at other positions at times:
While Trae Young does an excellent job of creating looks for Capela, he is solid around the rim as a finisher:
The issue I have with the Capela extension is that I am unsure if he will be able to stay on the floor against a team like the Brooklyn Nets. If they start rolling out lineups with Durant at the 5, Capela won't be able to stay on the floor because of his inability to really punish smaller lineups in the post. Also, extending center until their 30 years old before you have to is always a move I will question, especially when they are lower skilled players. While I really like Capela as a player, I don't necessarily love the extension.
Lakers Age
A big talking point about the Lakers offseason acquisitions was the ages of the players they were bringing in. After the offseason, the Lakers are now the oldest team in the league when you weigh the players ages for minutes played:
The question at hand is if this matters. My answer is it doesn't, and at some point I will write an article articulating why I don't think this is a big deal at all. For the purposes of this, I will say that the Lakers would be the second oldest team to win a championship if their weighted age stays the same (which it probably won't if Monk and Horton-Tucker get more minutes). The only team older than them to win was the 98 Chicago Bulls.
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