After a really weird path, the NBA Finals is finally here. While injuries and general strangeness from the COVID season have robbed us of a classic playoffs, this should still be a great matchup. Is this going to be looked upon as a classic Finals? No. These aren't super teams, these aren't Mount Rushmore players, and the path to getting here will forever get scrutinized. While that may take some people out of it, I'm certainly going to enjoy watching what these two teams and coaches do.
The first major chess piece that we don't know much about is with Giannis. The fact he was listed as doubtful the night before the series is not a good sign at all, but there are more breaks in the scheduling for the Finals. I think it's important to remember here that a hyperextension is not an injury in itself. A hyperextension is a mechanism of different injury, whether it be a strain, tear, etc. The way Giannis fell could have caused damage to his ACL or PCL, which would not be good for him going forward. We still don't have much information on the injury, and we probably won't until the offseason. If Giannis doesn't play, I don't know who the Bucks are going to start in his place. Bobby Portis worked against the weakened Hawks, but I don't see how he can play too much against the Suns. That leaves either Pat Connaughton. He gives you less offensively but is going to be much better on the defensive side of the ball this series.
Let's talk about the Suns on offense first. Monty Williams runs one of my favorite offenses in the league to watch. It is so much fun to watch how the Suns space the floor and attack. The one issue with them is what happens if the initial action is stopped, as they tend to become a little stagnant after that. That's how the Clippers were able to give them some issues with switching and even some junk defenses. The Bucks went to a lot of switching against the Hawks towards the end of the series, and I think they could go to that again. Chris Paul is a fantastic player, but he can settle for some tougher looks on switches. The Bucks may be able to live with him shooting contested 18-footers over Brook Lopez. Maybe if the Suns offense devolves into Chris Paul matchup hunting against Brook Lopez, then that's a win for the Bucks. I think Jrue Holiday is going to be matched up with Devin Booker, and I think the Buck will play a high drop against his pick and rolls. The issue for the Bucks is if they bring a big up to the level of the screen and the low man has to tag, the Suns spacing is going to kill them. Playing a drop with Lopez guarding the screener and Holiday chasing over the top will bait Booker into some tougher mid-range pullups that the Bucks will live with.
For the other players, I think Middleton defends Bridges, Lopez defends Ayton, Connaughton defends Paul, and Tucker defends Crowder. I think there is certainly a world where Tucker comes out defending Paul, and I wouldn't hate that. I just think that Tucker gives up a little too much in terms of screen navigation, plus he is such a good defender in help positions. I could also see a world where Giannis defends Paul when he comes back and simply goes under every ball screen. I think that could be interesting. Also, if the Bucks do a lot of switching on everyone besides Booker than the original matchups don't matter too much. I could also see the Bucks snagging a page out of Tyronn Lue's playbook and just playing zone for large portions of the game. That could hide Bobby Portis or Bryn Forbes defensively while getting the Suns out of rhythm. I think that paying straight up and trying not to help much is going to be crucial for the Bucks. They have some good point of attack defenders, but how does that look when Forbes and Portis come into the game? Do you just hope Craig is in and isn't making any shots? Do you have to match their minutes with a non-threat like Craig? Maybe they can spend some time on Nader? I've questioned how much those two could play in every series, and the only series they really looked bad was against the Nets. I just really think the Suns personnel would give them problems.
In terms of sets for the Suns, the drop may take them out of some of their stack action. The big won't get screened too much in the drop and they should be able to execute a switch if needed. The Bucks should also defend it well if they are just switching all the actions. Some of the stack counters could work well if the Bucks are trying to cheat the action. Monty Williams is the king of counters out of the stack, so I'm sure he has something to attack whatever coverage the Bucks are playing. I also love any sort of empty side action with a slip. I've seen double drags with either the first or second screener slipping, and that would be great to attack a switch. Even an Ayton slip out of horns alignment or something interesting out of Iverson screens could work out well. I also like the idea of small-small actions, as the Bucks have struggled with communication on that. I also think any STS set should work to disrupt the communication. What I am getting at a lot is sets that can confuse the Bucks. Slips always work well against switching, but also timely cuts, staggers, and ghost can confuse a lesser experienced team with this coverage. I think the Suns will have ways to attack.
Now time to talk about the Bucks on offense. Everything changes depending on if Giannis plays. Like I've said before, the Bucks are harder to defend yet easier to stop when Giannis doesn't play. They're harder to defend because there is more movement, better cutting, and less reliance on isolation play. They are easier to stop when Giannis doesn't play because it's really difficult to scheme for a player as good as Giannis, no matter how ugly the offense can look with him at times. Holiday, Middleton, and Lopez have all stepped up with Giannis out. The Suns match up much better than the Hawks do to stop what was working well. The Bucks were successful because the point of attack defense for the Hawks was relatively weak, making it easier for Holiday and Middleton to create from all over the floor. It will be very interesting to see if those guards can still create advantages with much better defenders on them.
For matchups, the one I feel will happen is Bridges on Middleton. He's their best wing defender, and Middleton's touch shot diet will be affected by Bridges' length. I think there are a few options for how the Suns defend Jrue Holiday. They could put Chris Paul on him, but I'd rather have him help off of Tucker or Connaughton. I'd say the same thing for Devin Booker. I would not be surprised if Jae Crowder takes on the matchup of Jrue Holiday. Crowder can struggle with quicker guys out on the perimeter, but Holiday relies more on power than speed. With Paul and Booker helping off their assignments, I think that could work well. Lopez would obviously be guarded by Ayton, and it will be interesting to monitor how he holds down the defensive glass. Lopez did a very good job rebounding in the last series against one of the better rebounders in this league in Clint Capela. If Giannis comes back, then the matchups obviously change. I'd say Crowder would defend him, but the one of Paul or Booker would have to defend Holiday. I think they could split time on that matchup, as both have taken on tough assignments in these playoffs.
When defending pick and roll, I think the Suns can play a lot of drop. Bait Holiday into shooting jumpers, as that's what he has struggled with in these playoffs. If he starts to make those shots, then you can adjust out of it. Mikal Bridges is good with screen navigation and rearview contests, but I would still play a higher drop against Khris Middleton. Maybe at about the free throw line, a step or two above where I would play it against Holiday. I also think that since neither rely much on speed, Ayton could switch out to either of them at certain points (especially Middleton). The Suns may even experiment with switching everything at some points in time. I also like the idea of Torrey Craig really being able to hold Middleton in check. If he can give you movement and passing on offense, he can be very valuable this series. Cam Payne could match minutes with Bryn Forbes to keep him out of trouble here, or he could just hide away on Tucker or Connaughton.
In terms of how the Bucks can have success with their sets, I still love any set that involves all three stars. Pistol action or stack with those works well. Also, anything that involves Giannis screening and an empty side makes me very happy. Those actions are tough to stop if the defender goes over the screen. The issue is I don't know if Holiday can force that, so maybe Middleton and Giannis would see more pick and roll run together. If Giannis doesn't play as much, then actions become harder. I like inverted sets with Holiday screening for Middleton, or even the other way around. That two-man game should be hard to stop. I also like Lopez being used as a cutter or a high ball screener. The Suns defense is very sound, so it's tough to find places to exploit. Any action could get blown up by Tucker and Connaughton not being guarded very much. I can see the Bucks offense just being a bunch of wide pin downs for Khris Middleton and then him either going to work or just receiving a screen. The Suns have tough shot makers, but I think the Bucks rely on tough shots falling a little more for their offense.
At the end of the day, I just really like the Phoenix Suns. I think they are an exceptionally well coached team with a bunch of players that fit. They are a model in how to properly build a team, which is something a lot of people missed at the beginning of the season (yes, that includes me). I think the Suns have the advantage at both ends of the floor in this series. I think Monty Williams is a better coach than Mike Budenholzer. The Suns have all of their players healthy. I think the Phoenix Suns are going to be the 2021 NBA Champions.
Prediction: Suns in 5
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