An Analytical Look at My All-Star Ballot

We are at almost 20 games into this season, but the voting for the 2021 All-Star game just opened up today. That seems pretty early, but in this shortened season that started late that is what the league decided to do. Selecting a group of All-Stars from such a small sample size is definitely a challenge. I wanted to take a more analytical approach to the selections this year and share a little bit about how I like to use analytics to evaluate players.

I want to talk about some of the stats I will be using in this article. First, the three all-encompassing impact metrics I used are RAPTOR, RAPM, and RPM. These obviously aren't perfect, but for the most part they can tell you who is good and who is bad. I wrote about why I use points per possession, and for this exercise I just used per 100 possessions. True Shooting is the best measure of efficiency we have, as it combines value from 3's, 2's, and free throws. League average is about 55.6% from last year. REB% is how many available rebounds a player collects. League average for this will be 10%, as there are 10 players on the floor at any given time. AST% is an estimate of percent of teammate field goals a player assisted while he was on the floor. League average for this is 20%, as there are 5 players on the floor that can get an assist for your team.

The format for the games is 2 guards and 3 frontcourt players starting, 2 guards and 3 front court off the bench, and 2 wild cards. There are 12 players for each conference, and then there is a draft to select the actual teams. Below are my selections and evaluations for the 2021 NBA All-Stars.

Eastern Conference

Bradley Beal

Beal is having the best scoring season in the league, putting up ridiculous scoring numbers on high efficiency. Despite the Wizards having the worst record in the NBA, they are 22nd in point differential per 100, and the only reason they aren't last is because of Beal. He is literally the only player on the team that has played at a starting level the entire season. He has been getting to the line a very high amount (13.4%), and his defense isn't as bad as it was last season. The offense is a whopping 17.6 point per 100 better when he is on the floor, good for the 99th percentile. Combine all that with the fact his playmaking is still better than it was two seasons ago, and Beal is a clear All-Star starter to me.

Kyrie Irving

Irving has had a really strong season bouncing back from being injured most of last year. He has scored at an impressive efficiency, and he has been better than usual as a playmaker. He is still an elite scorer from all areas of the floor, and his offensive package is really hard to stop. Lineups with Kyrie and without KD or Harden sport a net rating of +10.3, with a ridiculous offensive rating of 130.6. He can still drive a team's offense. He still isn't good defensively, but there is a general lack of high-level guards that are threatening to take away Irving's spot in the starting lineup for me.

Kevin Durant

Durant has been awesome this season. I didn't expect him to look so good so early, but he is a clear starter. His efficiency is unbelievable for the shots he has been taking. 54.3% of his shots this season have been contested, 48% are pull-ups, and 55% have come off of two or more dribbles. That is not normal for a wing. His offensive numbers are very similar to what they were in his last season in Golden State. On the court without Irving or Harden, the team has a +12.7-net rating. Yes, he has help, but he can still do it by himself. He should be in the MVP conversation at this point, the only thing holding him back for me is the defense hasn't been as good as it once was.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis hasn't been as good as he has been in the past, but he is still good enough to be a starter. His efficiency is down because he has tried to venture out to mid-range and three-point range more than ever in his career. The results from that haven't been terrible, but they haven't been good either. His usage has also dipped, mainly because there are other more capable ball handlers around him now. He was the best player in the regular season by far last year, so a dip in the performance still means he is an All-Star starter. Giannis lineups without Holiday or Middleton still have a net rating of +10.4, meaning Giannis is still perfectly capable of being a driver of good offense. He is still a monster on defense and someone you have to change your scheme for on defense.

Joel Embiid

Embiid comes in as the last starter, and he has arguably been the league MVP. He has just been a monster in the post this season, and his shot from mid-range has been on. Embiid lineups without Simmons have been +5.6, while Embiid lineups without Tobias Harris have been -3.5. These numbers don't look great, but some of that is because Embiid played heavy minutes while a lot of guys were out because of COVID protocols. I don't expect him to continue playing this well the whole year. He is shooting 11% better from mid-range than he did last year, and 6% better from 3. That isn't going to continue. He also has seen a decrease in block rate and assist rate. I think he is still a monster on defense, as opponents shoot 6.3% worse around 6 feet of the rim with him there, and if we are judging players as they are right now Embiid is a starter.

Trae Young

Young has been inconsistent all year, but he is still good enough to be an All-Star. I think his best skill is playmaking, where he just torches teams with his ability to run a pick and roll. He hasn't been shooting the ball great, but his foul rate has gone up 3%, which has allowed him to stay efficient. Most of his offensive looks have been self-created, but he isn't shooting well on those looks. When he touches the ball for 2-6 seconds, he is shooting a 48% eFG%. For touches of 6 or more seconds, his eFG% drops to 45%. Not good. Young is still the engine that drives a solid Hawks team, as their team net rating drops +3.9 to -4 without him on the floor, as their offensive rating drops by about 6. He is also still bad defensively, but he largely benefits from there being a lack of guards in the East.

James Harden

Harden is still a top-10 player in the league, and even though he had a rough departure he is too good to leave off the ballot. His scoring is down, but his efficiency and creation levels are great. He is also coming into a conference that again just lacks guards to compete with him. He has looked a lot better in Brooklyn, but he actually was still fairly good during his time in Houston. The defense and number of games played where he looked like he cared are still concerns with his case.

Jayson Tatum

Tatum has been out a while after contracting COVID, but he is emerging into a superstar in this league. The scoring is obviously great, but he has also had a very much welcomed increase in assist rate and efficiency. Him unlocking more playmaking as the season goes on could turn him into a top-10 player sooner than you may think. He is also still a really impactful defender off the ball, which helps his case. The Celtics are also a very good 8-4 when he plays, and their offense is visibly a lot better. They have a 3.9-point increase in offensive rating when he is on the floor, and his impact makes him an easy All-Star selection. His lineups without Brown are also a +6.9, meaning he is still a very capable offensive creator without much help.

Jaylen Brown

Brown took the leap I thought he would this season. His assist rate has doubled (something I did not foresee), his usage is way up, and his efficiency is up as well. That is an incredibly unusual combination. Brown is actually shooting about 15% more of his shots from mid-range and making 48% of his looks. That will slow down, as will his efficiency at the rim and from 3. The thing that makes me able to say he is clearly better is that he has really improved his playmaking and is still good defensively. His lineups without Tatum are at a -2.1 differential, but his overall lineups are at a +3.3. This means he isn't a number one guy yet, but a high-level number 2.

Khris Middleton

Speaking of high-level number 2 guys, Middleton has had another great season this year in Milwaukee. His efficiency has actually increased since last season, and he has taken on more creation responsibility. His assist rate has increased by about 5%, which helps out one of the main flaws in his offensive game. His ability to get to the rim and finish has also been another way he has gotten more efficient, and that was also one of his big criticisms before. He is still an impactful defender as well. Middleton lineups without Giannis have a net rating of +11.3, with an offensive rating of 124.4. Middleton is still an underrated player and a very deserving All-Star.

Bam Adebayo

Bam has gotten a lot better this season from an offensive perspective. Without Butler in the lineup a lot this year, Bam has stepped up his scoring, efficiency, and playmaking. His assist rate has gone up by 6%, and he is turning into a really helpful offensive player despite his lack of a jumper. His shot from mid-range has improved and he looks a lot more confident from there. He is also still a great finisher at the rim but needs to get there more often and draw fouls. On defense, he is still a monster in switches. He is by far the best switching center in the league, and he can be a matchup nightmare on that end because of that ability. Where he needs to get better before being in DPOY discussion is in rim protection. Opponents shoot 1.3% better from around 6 feet of the rim with Bam there, which isn't good. Despite that, he is still impactful enough for me to consider him an All-Star.

Myles Turner

Turner is an easy choice for me as the most impactful Pacer. On/Off metrics aren't perfect, but Turner's are too ridiculous to ignore. Lineups with Turner and without Sabonis are +12.2, while lineups with Sabonis and without Turner are +0.4. It is fair to think that which player Brogdon plays with more could affect these numbers, as that is the first thought I had when I saw them. Brogdon and Turner lineups without Sabonis are +24.2, while Sabonis and Brogdon lineups without Turner are +1.4. That is the case for Turner. Outside of that, Turner has a ludicrous block rate of 6.6%, god for the 100% percentile. Opponents shoot 17.7% worse around 6 feet of the rim with Turner there. That's insane. If you're going to pick a Pacer, I don't see how you don't pick Myles Turner.

Western Conference

Luka Doncic

Luka hasn't had the MVP level season people were hoping for, but he has still been great. The Mavs have been really hurt by injury and illness, and Luka has kept them competitive. He is in the 100th percentile in assist rate, as he is one of the three best passers in this league. He hasn't been quite as good as a scorer, but one would expect his numbers to go up with more competent teammates coming back. He is having to self-creating significantly more looks than he did last season, which is part of why the efficiency has dropped. His foul drawing has also dropped a small amount. Mavs lineups without Doncic are at a -4.2, while with him they are +1.3. The team runs through him. He has regressed a little from where he was last year, but that doesn't mean he isn't still a top-10 player.

Stephen Curry

Curry is still unbelievable. He has certainly regressed since his best years, but he is still one of the most impactful offensive players in the league. There have been some growing pains with the new look team, but that is not because of Curry. Kerr's system relies on players to make smart, quick reads, and the Warriors have Wiggins, Oubre, and Wiseman starting (no offense to those guys). When Draymond came back, it completely opened up the game for Curry and he has looked great. Without Curry, the Warriors net rating is -8, while with him they are at -2.2. With Curry and Draymond together, they are a +4.9. Still a great scorer and playmaker, and at this point he is an underrated defender as he can fit well into a team construct. Starter for me.

LeBron James

The three front court positions were very easy. LeBron is still probably the best player in this league. His assist rate is down but his efficiency is up. His numbers in terms of getting to the rim and finishing are about the same as the ones from his first year in Miami. He is also drawing about as many fouls as he did during his second stint in Cleveland. He is incredible with the ball in his hands in terms of making the right reads and controlling the game. He is also still perfectly solid on the defensive end. LeBron lineups without AD are +6.6, meaning the Lakers could still be one of the better teams in the league without him. The longevity of his career has been insane, and at 36 he's still got it.

Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi has been great this year. He is more efficient, better as a passer, and turning the ball over less than he did last season. He has finished 80% of his looks at the rim while also shooting a career best percentage from 3. He also still plays his signature Kawhi defense, with a steal rate of 2.6%. Lineups with Kawhi and without Paul George are +7 with a 121.8 offensive rating. With Kawhi playing in 15 of 18 games so far this season, he should be talked about more as a potential MVP candidate.

Nikola Jokic

Jokic has continued to be the best passing center in the history of the game so far this year. It is a joke how good he is at finding passes from anywhere on the court. His assist rate is about 9% higher than the next highest center. He is easily one of the three or four best passers in the league today, and his ability to pass from the high post or low block makes the Denver offense run. The Nuggets offensive rating drops 8.8 points when Jokic is off the floor. Jokic is the clear leader of the 4th best offense in the league. He also isn't as bad as people think on defense, as he has good hands and a high IQ. Throw in the fact that he is one of the best defensive rebounders in the game and he is an All-Star starter.

Damian Lillard

Lillard has been a lot closer to how good he was last season than people think. In terms of scoring, his per possession and efficiency numbers are right about the same. He still warps defenses with his ability the shoot from 35 feet from the rim. His assist rate has slightly dipped from last year, which is a little disappointing. He also isn't self-creating nearly as many looks as he did last season, which explains why his offense hasn't been as crazy to the eye test. What also hurts Lillard's case is that lineups with him and without C.J. McCollum are -3.4. However, that is more because of defense than offense, so Lillard should not be too much to blame for that. He is still a clear All-Star to me, but just isn't having quite as good of a season than last year.

C.J. McCollum

McCollum was playing out of his mind before he went down with a foot injury. He took a huge leap forward in terms of playmaking, as his assist rate was up by about 7% from last year. He was also way more efficient, having the best shooting season of his career from mid-range and 3. He was shooting about 47.3% on open threes, which is an insane number. He was also shooting really efficiently on shots where he had the ball for 2-6 seconds, at about 61.2 eFG%. Problems for him arise when you see lineups without Lillard have an offensive rating of 105.9 and a net rating of -3.5. Lineups with both Lillard and McCollum are +9, meaning they really do need each other to be successful.

Paul George

Paul George has returned to form this season. He has been way better as a playmaker and he is scoring at by far the highest efficiency of his career. He is not going to continue shooting 48% from 3 and 44% on contested 3's, but he has been getting to the line more often and finishing well inside. He has also been scoring efficiently on shots he has created, with a 54% eFG on touches of 6 or more seconds. He is also still a very solid wing defender on and off the ball. Clippers lineups with Paul George and without Kawhi Leonard are at -0.5, which tells me George is still best as a number 2 guy. That doesn't mean he isn't one of the best number 2's in the league, and he is very worthy of an All-Star selection.

Anthony Davis

Davis has not been quite as impactful offensively as he was last season so far. His efficiency, scoring, and usage has dipped. Part of this is because he is shooting about 9% less at the rim this season, which is strange. He is still great around the rim but getting less shots at the most efficient area of the floor will hurt your numbers. Lineups with AD and without LeBron are -4.1, meaning AD still isn't quite ready to lead a team himself. The defense is actually 2.7 points better without AD on the floor, which is surprising. Opponents are also shooting 1.6% better around 6 feet with Davis in the area. Last season that number was at -11.2%, so there must be some noise with some of these numbers. I know enough about AD and have seen him play enough this season to not get too concerned about those numbers, but it will be something to monitor.

Rudy Gobert

Gobert is still the best defensive player in the regular season in my opinion. When Gobert is on the floor, the Jazz post a defensive rating of 100.8. Last season, the best defensive team posted a rating of 103.2. When Gobert is on the floor, opponents shoot 29.8% of their shots at the rim. When he is off, opponents shoot 37.8% of their shots at the rim. Players are scared to shoot near him. When opponents do shoot against him, they are shooting 9.2% worse within 6 feet of the rim. His block rate is also at 4.4%. Lineups with Gobert and without Donovan Mitchell are a staggering +20.9. He is still the best rim protector in basketball, and the best player on the #1 seed in the West. The Jazz have the second ranked defense in the league, and Gobert is the reason why.

Donovan Mitchell

The Jazz also have the 3rd ranked offense in the league, and that is in large part due to Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell has made strides as a passer and playmaker this season, and he has continued to be the focal point of a very good Jazz offense. Mitchell isn't as impactful as Gobert because the Jazz motion offense style is designed to get a lot of movement, a lot of cutting, and a lot of guys involved. That doesn't mean Mitchell isn't the go-to guy with the clock running down. Mitchell is getting to the rim more and shooting more three's, which has been a criticism of him in years past. His finishing around the rim is down 14%, which should just be an aberration. His three-point percentage has continued to increase every year of his career, and he is also getting to the line more. He is also solid defensively, and a cog in one of the better defenses in the league. I am concerned that lineups with Mitchell and without Gobert are at -3.8 while lineups with Conley and without Gobert are +11.9. I am going to trust my eye test on this one, but Conley was REALLY CLOSE to taking this spot.

Draymond Green

Draymond Green is an All-Star to me. The Warriors are 8-6 with him, and 2-2 without him. Both of those two losses the Warriors got absolutely ran off the floor, while one of their wins was a buzzer beater to beat the Bulls and the other was beating the Pistons. Green came into a struggling team and elevated them to a playoff team. He is still an incredibly high-level ceiling raiser. The Warriors have a -7.8-net rating without him on the floor, while they have a +4.2-net rating with him. Their defensive rating gets better by 6 points. Green is impacting the game without scoring the ball. He is a high-level passer, with an assist rate in the 99th percentile for his position. He completely unlocks the Warriors offense, as he can short roll, set the right screens, make the right cut, and always make the right read with the ball. He also changes the defense. He truly impacts the game with his voice and IQ. Forget watching random 10-second Twitter clips and just watch his arms and mouth when he's on defense. He is always directing traffic by pointing to where players need to go and verbally telling them what to do. He is probably one of the five smartest players to ever play. Draymond is also still a high-level switchable defender. Opponents are shooting 9.6% worse within 6 feet with Draymond there. He can also guard on the perimeter with his lateral quickness and technique. I am going to be really upset if he doesn't make the All-Star game.