After dropping Game 1 at home, the Warriors came back in Game 2 and defeated the Celtics 107-88. The 19 point victory might actually undersell how uncompetitive this game was, with the Celtics pulling their starters 1 minute and 15 seconds into the 4th quarter while down 29 points. I wanted to provide some quick thoughts on what the Warriors did differently and what it means going forward.
First, I wanted to use the win probability calculations from our friends at Inpredictable to outline how dominant that Warriors 3rd quarter was. the Warriors dominated the 3rd by a score of 35 to 14, effectively ending the game. At halftime, the Warriors had a nice 65.0% chance to pull off the victory. By the end of the quarter, their chances jumped to 99.8%.
Much of the focus of the Warriors dominant victory should be pointed to how good they were defensively. The report below from CleaningTheGlass shows the Celtics offensive rating was in just the 3rd percentile, while performing at significantly below average in every one of the four factors.
These numbers are in stark contrast to Game 1, where the Celtics posted an offensive rating in the 94th percentile. From my standpoint, this shift occurred because of smart adjustments from the Warriors combined with the Celtics lack of a counter, which we will get into.
The Draymond matchup change
The most obvious change from Game 1 to Game 2 with what the Warriors were doing defensively was with Draymond Green defending Jaylen Brown instead of either Al Horford or Robert Williams. The table below shows his shift in matchups from Game 1 to Game 2:
In Game 1, the theory behind Draymond Green on Al Horford and Robert Williams is that he could roam on teh backline of the defense and continually plug holes around the rim. The Warriors scheme defensively is largely built around preventing shots around the rim, and Draymond Green is a massive part of that. Green is one of the better weakside rim protectors and roamers of all time, so empowering him in that role in Game 1 made sense in theory.
In practice, there were too many holes to plug with Draymond on a weaker perimeter threat. Why worry about plugging the hole when you can prevent it from being created in the first place? That was the theory behind making Jaylen Brown the primary matchup for Draymond Green. Green used his length and quick hands to somewhat bother Jaylen Brown's handle while also using his lateral agility and strength to keep him in front. Brown struggled to create against Green.
Draymond Green was not just stuck to Jaylen Brown, but the Warriors were much more comfortable switching on-ball actions involving Green and other players. The Warriors were not just switching out onto Brown and Tatum, but they were switching out hard, keeping the ball on the side, and loading up to the boxes and elbows. They trusted their ground coverage and defensive IQ to be able to prevent drives while also closing out to more respected shooters. They were proactively preventing holes from being created instead of reactively plugging them.
Even against matchups that may have been perceived as advantageous for the Warriors, they were able to more competently adjust their off-ball defense to prevent advantages from being exploited. Here, Bjelica is switched onto Tatum in what seems to be an obvious mismatch, but watch everyone else.
The Warriors defense was the most impressive part of their dominant victory, and that all started with how they used Draymond Green differently.
Defending Horford and Others
The Warriors also adjusted how they were defending Al Horford and the other role players in Game 2. During Game 2, they dared the Celtics role players to beat them offensively and they did. It's difficult to pull that strategy off against a Celtics team full of competency, although it was a strategy worth trying. In Game 2, the Warriors would push up onto the role players and force them to make stronger drives and quicker/more contested decisions. This, combined with how they were defending Jaylen Brown and Tatum to some extent, changed the quality of looks the Celtics were able to generate.
In Game 1, many of the open 3s were taken by role players and were created by paint touches. In Game 2, the Warriors cut off the paint touches and covered ground much more effectively while also giving more respect to the shooting ability of the role players. Balancing cutting off the paint while also closing out to shooters is a tricky needle to thread, but the Warriors did an admirable job of that in Game 2.
The impact of Gary Payton II
Gary Payton II does two things that really improve this Warriors defense:
1. Juices the ground coverage off the ball
2. Can defend either Tatum or Brown
Having another defender that can guard either Tatum or Brown removes some of the defensive load from Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green. It opens up lineup possibilities as well, as Kerr no longer has to match the minutes of Wiggins with Tatum and Payton is a great 5th option to close with Draymond at the 5.
Ground coverage is an important concept here because it is crucial to the Warriors defense. They want to prevent drives to the rim and shots at the rim, but a large part of that is the ability to help and recover. Payton flies around the court in those situations, and while he was reckless at times with closeouts in Game 2 the difference with him on the floor is noticeable. Payton has a major defensive impact on this series (as well as offensively as a screener?), and don't be surprised to see him closing games next to Curry, Klay, Draymond, and Wiggins while playing 30 minutes a night.
The Celtics offensive issues were also self induced
While I have spent plenty of time praising the Warriors defense, which I think is well deserved, the Celtics offense had also spent it's fair share of time shooting itself in the foot. The easiest example of that was with the turnovers in Game 2. The Celtics committed 15 turnovers in the first 3 quarters, which is a staggering number. The frustrating part is many of the turnovers were live ball and unforced. Per pbpstats, 15 of the 19 total turnovers in the game were live ball, the Celtics 2nd highest total of the Playoffs. 6 were considered "lost ball" and 9 were considered "bad pass". This can happen when playing a good defense with many above average but not great passers and playmakers.
The Celtics general halfcourt offense lacked manipulation and spacing. Oftentimes there would be moments when Grant Williams would be planted in the dunker spot or Derrick White would be the player one pass away during an isolation. This confusing process seems small, but makes massive changes in the NBA Finals.
The stagnation and shot selection at times is also frustrating. This Tatum possession stands out to me in outlining this. Tatum is on the wing against Wiggins with no real advantage and time on the shotclock. Instead of flowing into another action, it's an isolation with almost everyone standing and watching as the Warriors are loaded to the boxes and elbows. There just has to be more here.
The Celtics have shown an ability to figure this out throughout a series. Their offensive process got progressively better against the Bucks and Heat throughout those series, but they might be facing a tougher opponent this time around. The Celtics don't have time like they did in the previous series, and adjustments need to be made.
In terms of adjusting offensively, it can be as simple as running more patterned actions to create mismatches and attacking quicker. Tatum has a bit of a catch and hold mentality, but attacking the defense downhill quicker will generate more open looks like in Game 1. The Warriors threw a lot at Jaylen Brown defensively, but when he was able to attack a mismatch in space it often looked good. Actively using him as a screener to get more advantageous matchups while spacing the floor more intentionally with where Draymond is located in help should work to juice their drive and kick game. In general, increasing the movement and decreasing the turnovers are the biggest overlaying keys for the Celtics offense.
The undeniability of Steph Curry
It wasn't all about Warriors defense in Game 2. The Warriors poured in 87 points through 3 quarters in Game 2, which isn't too shabby at all. Much of this can be attributed to the greatness of Steph Curry. With him on the floor so far in the Finals, the Warriors have had an offensive rating of 120.6. For the Celtics defense, that isn't going to be good enough for them to win.
One of the most concerning aspects of this series for the Celtics so far has been their inability to figure out Steph Curry. In the second half of Game 1, they did a much better job of communicating through the variety of Warriors off-ball actions while also being higher up on ball screens. In Game 2, the Celtics continued their high drop coverage, but this Curry play is seared into the mind of every Celtics fan out there:
While it's easy to say "Theis needs to be higher up here", look at where he is when the screen is set. This is no ordinary drop coverage, as Theis has both feet above the 3-point line when Curry uses the screen. The issue is that if the Celtics aren't in drop, what do they do? Curry has continuously driven against Robert Williams and Al Horford in this series, with his ability to get paint touches being a massive aspect here. You can't really put two on the ball, as that's exactly what the Warriors want teams to do against Curry. The Celtics have tried to pre-switch Robert Williams out of actions and play up to touch with Horford, but Curry's ability to string that coverage out and make plays is exceptional. To this point he feels like an unsolvable problem, and the high drop is the least worst option Boston has.
In the past, Steve Kerr has taken a lot of criticism about not using Steph Curry in high ball screens as much as many would like. Not in this series. The chart below from Sporting News shows the increase in Curry's usage as a pick and roll ball handler in this series so far. Expect this to continue to increase throughout the rest of the Finals until the Celtics figure out how to stop him.
The "let's attack the guy that made 2nd team All-Defense" portion of the Playoffs
The Celtics needs Robert Williams for his vertical spacing and rim protection, and are doing everything they can to keep him on the floor. Meanwhile, the Warriors are doing everything they can to get him out on the perimeter and run constant actions against him. This is not necessarily a fair fight, as Williams is coming back from a well documented meniscus tear from just two months ago.
Robert Williams is best when working as a roamer off the ball. To unlock that in this series, the Celtics don't have many options to match Williams up with outside of Andrew Wiggins because of the screening and DHO ability of the Warriors non-shooters. While Williams has been devastating in this series when given the opportunity to contest shots at the rim. So far, Warriors players are only shooting 3/10 against Williams within 6 feet of the basket. That's why they want him as far away from there as possible.
The Warriors are constantly using Wiggins (or whoever Williams is defending) as a screener to force him to play the high drop the Warriors have had success attacking. To counter, the Celtics are pre-switching Williams out of actions, although over time pre-switching is not incredibly difficult to counter. The Warriors have simply brought two players up to screen many times, or just ghosted the first screen while allowing Williams new matchup to come set the ball screen instead.
Overall, the combination of Williams struggles pinpointing Warriors actions quickly combined with his loss of ground coverage due to the injury may make it hard for him to play a ton of minutes the rest of the series.
So... what do we expect from Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson is one of the best role players of all time, but in this series he's been struggling to find his footing. The decision-making has been questionable, and at what point do you wonder if his minute totals should get lowered? The answer to that question is before Game 2, as through 3 quarters Thompson had seen a reduction of his minutes versus expected. With the return of Gary Payton II and Jordan Poole's improved play, Thompson wasn't quite needed as much. If he's not going to be making good decisions and struggles to stay in front of the ball defensively, I'd expect his minutes to continue to decrease (which is very painful to say).
Celtics getting too cute
I'm not going to go super in-depth about this because it's a very small thing I don't expect the Celtics to continue, but in Game 2 they were messing around with matchups on BLOB and SLOB plays because they knew what was coming and were preparing to switch screens. The result was a galaxy brain strategy that wasn't effective in practice, often leading to poor matchups and breakdowns. Should not matter too much in the next game but interesting enough to point out.
Who has the advantage?
I still feel there is plenty to be learned about this series, and Game 3 will be an interesting depiction of the Celtics identification and problem solving on both ends. The Warriors exploited weaknesses effectively on both ends of the floor, but there is some low-hanging fruit for the Celtics here. The most concerning piece from the Celtics after 2 games is their inability to defend Steph Curry. After it looked like they might have figured something out in Game 1, Curry went right back to his brilliant form in Game 2.
I think at this point I'd say advantage Warriors by a slight margin. The extent to which they fixed the defense while exploiting the Curry advantage was impressive. I think the Celtics will find offensive pressure points to attack, but the Curry piece is the one that could cause issues for a few more games. This series is extremely fluid, so let's see what the Celtics bring to Game 3.
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